658
FXUS64 KLZK 162348
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN
648 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A more typical summertime pattern is unfolding for the Srn Cntrl
US, w/ warming temperatures and incrsg humidity levels leading to
daily chances for showers and storms. Recent radar imgry depicted
scattered diurnal precip activity acrs the greater AR region.
Expect this activity to persist thru the remainder of the day, w/
perhaps a few more clusters of stronger storms possible acrs SErn
AR this evng.

Thru the fcst PD, broad sfc high pressure is expected to stall
over the SErn US/Greater Appalachia, w/ lee sfc cyclonic flow over
the Cntrl Plains, driving a fetch of low-lvl SWrly flow. Incrsg
low-lvl WAA and amplifying H500 ridging wl setup a favorable
pattern for the warmest temperatures of the season locally. By mid
to late this week, daily high temps are expected to climb to the
low to mid 90s at most locations, alongside sultry dewpoint
temperatures in the low to mid 70s, resulting in "air you can
wear". This pattern wl also favor daily aftn thunderstorms of the
isolated to scattered variety acrs the FA, w/ any severe threat
(mainly wind gusts and hail) remaining conditional to each storm.
Some good news includes an optimistic rainfall forecast, w/
significantly lesser total amounts expected thru the next 7 days
after an excessively wet period thru May to mid-June, however,
daily rain chances and asctd cloud cover wl be the primary source
of relief from the heat moving forward.

That being said, the main concern and talking points thru the PD
wl be the heat, w/ heat index values breaking 100 degrees by Wed
aftn, and a more concerning 105 degrees by Fri, w/ heat headlines
possibly becoming a daily occurrence by then and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Scattered rain will continue through the evening hours before
pushing out of the state. Some VCTS will be possible although the
chance are lowering as the sun goes down. Calmer weather is
expected over night with some patchy FG possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  89  75  91 /  20  10   0  40
Camden AR         71  90  73  92 /  30  30   0  10
Harrison AR       67  89  72  86 /   0   0  10  50
Hot Springs AR    71  90  74  91 /  10  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  72  90  75  91 /  20  20   0  10
Monticello AR     72  89  75  92 /  60  50   0  10
Mount Ida AR      70  91  74  91 /  10  10   0  20
Mountain Home AR  68  89  73  86 /  10   0  10  60
Newport AR        72  90  75  91 /  40  20   0  30
Pine Bluff AR     72  90  75  93 /  40  30   0  10
Russellville AR   70  92  75  91 /  10  10   0  30
Searcy AR         70  90  74  91 /  20  10   0  20
Stuttgart AR      73  89  76  91 /  40  30   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...73