030
FXUS64 KLZK 052037
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
237 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

-A dry cold front is expected to move across Arkansas from northwest
 to southeast tonight into early Friday

-The airmass behind front will be cold leading to the possibility
 of frost and potentially freeze products needed for portions of
 the state on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings.

-New warming trend begins early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Satellite early this afternoon shows mostly clear skies across
the entire state. Temperatures this hour are in the 70s across
Arkansas. As we head into the latter part of the afternoon, the
cold front will continue to move east but most areas will likely
be dry. A look at several runs of CAMs has shown the possibility
of isolated showers across the western one third of the state
late this afternoon into the evening. A look at some hi-res short
term models shows some low stratus will move south out of Missouri
around midnight into northern Arkansas.

Light and variable winds ahead of the front will veer to the
north/northeast but remain light. The low clouds behind the front
will move into parts of central Arkansas by sunrise but likely not
make it further south of central Arkansas on Friday morning. The
upper trough/cold front will push out of Arkansas around midday on
Friday into the Ohio valley. High pressure will built into the
state from the central Plains, shunning appreciable moisture to
along the Gulf coast.

As we head into the weekend, high pressure across the central
Plains will move south into the state Saturday into early Sunday
morning. Temperatures will hove around normal for early November
across the state. By Monday, high pressure will move into the mid
south and then into the southeast allowing winds to switch to
south to southwest. The shift in winds will allow temperatures to
warm into upper 60s to lower 70s, which is roughly 5 to 8 degrees
above normal for afternoon highs in early to mid November. With
little to no rainfall expected beyond the chance later today,
drought conditions will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Mainly VFR conditions through a majority of the forecast TAF cycle
across Arkansas. A cold front will enter the state later this
afternoon bringing some mid level cloudiness and possibly an
isolated shower or two to parts of western and southwestern
Arkansas late afternoon into the overnight hours. Expect the
front through the middle of the state around midnight. Behind the
front low stratus is expected to move south out of Missouri
impacting northernly terminals. At this time, confidence is not
high enough to introduce MVFR ceilings after 06z but could be
included in feature forecast packages. Otherwise, light and
variable winds ahead of the boundary, then light north to
northeast winds behind the cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     45  64  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         46  72  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       44  59  35  58 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    48  70  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  51  69  42  61 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     48  70  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      45  69  34  64 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  44  59  35  57 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        47  65  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     46  68  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   47  68  38  63 /  20   0   0   0
Searcy AR         47  66  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      49  68  40  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSSION...76
AVIATION...76