343
FXUS64 KLZK 012254 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
454 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 450 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Some fog and patchy drizzle possible this evening and overnight

- Mainly dry conditions are expected Monday before the next
  weather system approaches Monday night and Tuesday

- Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible Monday night and
  Tuesday...but widespread flooding is not expected

- A few stronger storms can not be ruled out Tuesday with gusty
  winds the primary concern

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Latest regional radars continue to show an area of light to
occasionally moderate precipitation exiting the CWA to the NE.
Upper trough currently over north central sections of the state
also making a slow progression to the east and will take the
majority of the shower activity with it as it exits the state
early this morning.

In its wake, weak ridging will build back over the region for
this afternoon through Monday before moving off. While a stray
shower or two can not be discounted, the majority of the state
will be dry once this initial batch of rain moves out.

Attention will then turn to an advancing H5 trough/upper low that
will have moved from its current position along the west coast
and into the central/northern high plains by the end of Monday.
Main low will be located over the northern plains but guidance
continues to advertise a secondary low developing along the
associated surface boundary as the system evolves.

Southwest flow will draw moisture into the region with said
boundary located along the AR/OK border by early Tuesday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along and in
advance of the boundary as it moves across the state on Tuesday.
Upper flow will largely be parallel to the boundary meaning it
will take some time for it to clear the state but conditions do
appear to improve rapidly in its wake.

Guidance has the majority of the precipitation crossing the MS
River by the end of Tuesday with the front lagging behind by
several hours. Upper trough will move through the state on
Wednesday with at least a few showers possible as the upper
support lifts out. A inch of two of rain is not out of the realm
of possibility with this system with locally heavier amounts not
out of the question. Data now supports a few stronger storms
Tuesday as the system moves through with gusty winds the primary
concern.

Several other weak impulses move through the prevailing flow
Thursday and again Friday night but little more than in increase
in clouds are expected. Models do slide another trough through
Saturday night that could bring a better chance of showers to
round out the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Some low CIGS and fog will be seen overnight for several
terminals...along with some patchy DZ. Expect slowly improving
conditions during the daylight hrs on Mon as winds increase. CIGs
may remain MVFR for a while however.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  75  63  74 /  30  50  70 100
Camden AR         61  80  63  75 /  20  20  80 100
Harrison AR       58  74  61  72 /  10  10  80  90
Hot Springs AR    61  77  63  74 /  10  40  90 100
Little Rock   AR  62  78  65  76 /  30  30  70 100
Monticello AR     63  78  66  77 /  30  30  40 100
Mount Ida AR      58  77  61  75 /  10  40  90  90
Mountain Home AR  58  73  62  71 /  10  10  90 100
Newport AR        60  75  64  76 /  40  40  50 100
Pine Bluff AR     61  78  63  76 /  30  30  60 100
Russellville AR   60  77  64  75 /   0  30  90 100
Searcy AR         60  76  63  75 /  40  50  70 100
Stuttgart AR      62  78  65  77 /  30  30  40 100

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...56
AVIATION...62