053
FXUS64 KLZK 091057
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
557 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

-A cooler and drier airmass will be in place across Arkansas through
 the end of the workweek.

-A period of dry weather conditions are likely over the next seven
 days or the entire duration of the forecast period from today through
 Wednesday.

-A warming trend for temperatures overall will be present from the weekend
 into early next workweek. Anticipate temperatures to be 5 to 10
 degrees above average overall compared to normals for mid-
 October.

-No considerable changes of any sort from the previous forecast
 package.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

The beginning of the forecast period across the Natural State will
begin with a drier and cooler airmass in place. Surface high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes region of the CONUS will lead
to northeasterly flow across Arkansas which will usher in a
continued advection of cooler and drier air across the state. In the
upper lvls, elongated ridging will be present over the Southeastern
region of the CONUS extending westward over the Southern Plains
region of the CONUS, this includes over Arkansas which will lead to
nearly zonal flow. Expect a period of temperatures that will be
average for this time of the year to a few degrees below normal
across the state. Low temperatures on Friday morning will fall into
the low to mid 40s across portions of north-central Arkansas and the
higher terrain of western Arkansas.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

Into the weekend, the surface high pressure will shift eastward and
allow a return to southerly and southeasterly flow across Arkansas.
In response, temperatures will begin to gradually increase overall
and by beginning of the next workweek will be 5 to 10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. An upper lvl ridge will be
centered over the ARK-LA-TEX region of the CONUS and nearly zonal
flow will be noted over Arkansas which will keep dry and warming
conditions present for the remainder of the forecast period. Expect
a continuation of dry and fair weather conditions with overall
warming temperatures.

Models continue to show strong agreement of a dry next seven days
across Arkansas with gradually warming into the weekend and through
the middle of next week or the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Expect VFR flight category across all sites for the entire duration
of the forecast period from Thursday morning through Friday morning.
High pressure behind the frontal boundary that moved across Arkansas
has led to fair and dry weather conditions. Surface winds at the
terminals of KLIT, KPBF, and KLLQ will gust in excess of 20 knots
later Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     77  47  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         79  50  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       74  49  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    78  51  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  76  52  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     80  52  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      79  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  76  48  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        76  47  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     78  49  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   79  52  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         77  48  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      76  50  79  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74