962
FXUS64 KLZK 011715
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Well above normal temperatures to persist across the southeast
  half of Arkansas on Thursday along with gusty southerly winds

- Widespread rain chances will slowly expand east across the state
  from Thursday into Friday, continuing into the weekend

- Highest rainfall amounts are expected across western Arkansas
  with amounts tapering off to the east

- Much cooler temperatures likely from Friday through early next
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

One more day of very warm temperatures is expected across much of
the state as sfc and mid-level ridging persist across the SE US.
Highs Thu afternoon are expected to climb into the 90s F once
again across much of central, southern and eastern Arkansas.
Precip will be slow to move in from the west Thursday, but
portions of western AR will see some occasional showers and
thunderstorms through the day. The precip and associated cloud
cover will help keep temperatures slightly cooler across the west.

The slow moving H500 low is located just west of the TX/OK
panhandles late this evening and has provided significant
rainfall to portions of the Central/Southern Plains on Wednesday.
Over the next 12-24 hours the mid-level low will weaken and begin
to open as it encounters the strong Southeast ridge. It will
slowly progress E/NE toward the Mid-MS Valley before being
absorbed into a northern stream trough advancing east across the
Ohio Valley.

At the sfc, a cold front will approach the area from the west and
will provide the focus for widespread precip from south Texas to
the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. With the loss of much upper
level support, this is where rainfall amounts begin to taper off.
The remnant moisture plume from Polo (characterized by PW values
of 2-2.5 inches) will begin to diminish and widespread rainfall
efficiency will be reduced. The spread in precip amounts amongst
various model solutions, including ensembles, remains high for an
event in this time-range. The general idea that western Arkansas
will see the highest rainfall totals still holds true, with
amounts expected to taper off toward the east. Before PW values
really diminish, there could be some localized rainfall totals of
2-4 inches in some spots through Friday morning, but these are
expected to remain isolated.

By the weekend the front will shift south of the state and precip
chances will diminish from north to south. The Southeast ridge
will be forced southward as a stronger trough builds across the
eastern US. This will provide NW flow aloft over the state and sfc
ridging will build in just north of the area. This will provide
at least a few days of below normal temperatures across the state.
There could even be a few mornings early next week with lows in
the 40s F across parts of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the
afternoon and evening hours. With that said, worsening conditions
are expected after midnight and into Friday as a front system
moves through the state. With it, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
a few isolated thunderstorms are possible. VFR conditions early
in the period are expected with MVFR/IFR conditions Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  75  57  73 /  80  90  40  20
Camden AR         69  84  62  78 /  50  80  50  30
Harrison AR       65  71  56  72 /  90  70  30  10
Hot Springs AR    68  79  61  74 /  80  90  50  50
Little Rock   AR  70  79  61  73 /  60  90  50  30
Monticello AR     72  87  64  79 /  20  60  30  30
Mount Ida AR      65  78  58  74 /  90  90  50  40
Mountain Home AR  65  73  56  73 / 100  70  30  10
Newport AR        70  76  60  73 /  60  90  30  20
Pine Bluff AR     69  83  61  76 /  30  80  40  40
Russellville AR   67  77  60  74 /  90  80  50  30
Searcy AR         69  78  59  73 /  70  90  40  20
Stuttgart AR      72  82  62  77 /  40  90  50  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...73