917
FXUS64 KLZK 170834
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
234 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

-Well above normal temperatures persisting through most of this
 week, with another warming trend towards record levels again on
 Tuesday and Wednesday

-Light rain accumulations anticipated today across mainly central
 to northern Arkansas


-Showers and thunderstorms towards the latter portions of the week
 will result in mostly beneficial rains across the state, but
 cannot rule out some flash flood potential

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Persistent mid to upper level ridging is weakening across the
central U.S. as an ejecting shortwave downstream of the
anomalous Pacific trough is beginning to take form across the
Plains. This is resulting in enhanced southerly flow in the lower
levels of the atmosphere, as a warm frontal band ushers in a more
moist airmass. IR satellite is depicting a pretty expansive area
of mid-level clouds developing across the Natural State and should
persist and push further north going through the day. Some light
showers may accompany this area today, prior to a mostly dry cold
frontal passage later this evening and into tonight. Most areas
will likely not see any accumulations, but central to northern
Arkansas are the favored areas for accumulating rains today
through tonight where NBM PoP`s are maxing out around 30-40%.

Post-frontal passage will bring more dry conditions again going
into the middle of the week as mid-level ridging amplifies
downstream of another deepening Pacific trough across the
southwestern U.S. Temperatures will warm quickly back into the 70s
and lower 80s for highs again across the state Tuesday and
Wednesday. Record high temperatures will be in play both days
depending on the climate site and regional cloud cover, as
records for this time of year run in the low to mid-80s.

As this Pacific trough slowly migrates eastward through the middle
of the week, a more energetic shortwave will eject east of the
Rockies during the latter portions of this week. This will aid in
the surface low developing across the Plains Wednesday into
Thursday. The initial warm frontal passage across the area will
bring increasing rain chances starting Wednesday night into
Thursday, with the main cold frontal passage late Thursday into
Friday. Thus, the timing trend continues to slow relative to the
last several forecast cycles, which is lessening overall storm
total precipitation amounts and lowering the flash flood potential
during this period. The latest NBM projections seem to be
indicating this is the case, as the 50th percentile storm total
rainfall Wednesday-Friday is widespread 1-2", but higher amounts
only in the 3-4" range favoring western Arkansas. Thus, due to the
continued downward trend in total rainfall amounts, expect more
of a beneficial rainfall event mid to late week, with only areas
that receive multiple heavy thunderstorms/downpours in a short
period to pose any flash flood threat.

Once the rainfall clears the area going into this weekend, another
amplifying ridge seems favored as another Pacific trough deepens
across the West Coast. There remains some modest uncertainty on
how progressive this trough will be moving into and through the
weekend, but should the cutoff scenario come to fruition, expect
building high pressure and dry conditions through at least this
weekend. Whenever the Pacific trough ejects eastward, we can
expect another round of rain, but that might not be well into next
week as current projections suggests at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Some MVFR ceilings will be the main aviation impact through the
period. Some mid-level VFR ceilings continue to develop across the
southern part of the state, with expectations of spreading further
northward and persisting through most of the period. Some MVFR
ceilings expected to develop with this mid-level decks, with maybe
some light rain overnight. Gradual improvement in cloud coverage
towards the latter portions of the period. E winds overnight will
become more SE through the day, with some gustiness 15-25 kts
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  57  81  56 /  40  30  10  10
Camden AR         78  63  80  61 /  20  10   0   0
Harrison AR       64  55  79  52 /  30  40   0   0
Hot Springs AR    73  64  79  62 /  40  10  10   0
Little Rock   AR  70  63  79  62 /  40  10  10   0
Monticello AR     79  64  82  64 /  20  10   0  10
Mount Ida AR      75  65  81  62 /  30  20  10  10
Mountain Home AR  62  54  80  50 /  30  40   0   0
Newport AR        66  59  80  58 /  40  30  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     75  63  80  62 /  30  10  10  10
Russellville AR   68  60  82  58 /  40  30  10   0
Searcy AR         67  58  79  58 /  40  20  10  10
Stuttgart AR      71  63  79  62 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...77