376
FXUS64 KLZK 020737
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
237 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2005

Area radars are showing widely scattered showers across the
region this morning, associated with a weak cold front that is
somewhere over the southern third of the state. Guidance is
consistent in keeping the boundary in the area but rain chances
will remain on the smaller side for the remainder of tonight and
Tuesday.

Persistent northwest flow of late will continue through Thursday
at least, as the upper pattern continues to show western CONUS
ridging and subsequent troughing over the east. Pattern does
begin to relax somewhat as the eastern trough begins to lift out
towards the north and east. Even with the northwest flow in place,
temperatures will average a few degrees above average through
Friday with low level surface flow a bit more southerly in
direction.

Another boundary will drop down Wednesday night into Thursday
with some shower activity possible across the northern third of
the CWA but appreciable amounts of precipitation are not expected.

Yet another cold front will drop into northern Arkansas Friday and
will work its way through the state through Friday night and into
Saturday morning. This particular front will be the strongest in
this series of them with high chance POPS (40 to 50%) accompanying
it. Some areas of the state could pick up a quarter of an inch or
more with this system but the main impacts from it will be the
cooler air coming in behind it.

Guidance is showing high temperatures in the mid/upper 70s to the
lower/mid 80s over the weekend and into early next week as high
pressure moves from the central plains into the Ohio Valley.
Models are showing some significant differences early next week
with the GFS considerably wetter versus its ECMWF counterpart.
Have decided to stick with the ECMWF solution for now and take a
wait and see approach.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Widespread VFR conditions are expected for the terminals through
the period. A weak system will bring a few scattered showers
mainly to KLIT and KPBF overnight but no impacts on operations are
expected. Wind overnight will be light and variable and mainly
out of the NW at less than 10 kts on Tues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  63  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
Camden AR         89  65  89  64 /  30  10  20   0
Harrison AR       82  61  85  61 /  30  10  10  30
Hot Springs AR    88  65  88  64 /  30  10  20   0
Little Rock   AR  87  67  88  68 /  20  10  10   0
Monticello AR     90  67  89  67 /  40  20  20   0
Mount Ida AR      86  64  87  63 /  30  10  10  10
Mountain Home AR  86  61  88  62 /  20  10  10  20
Newport AR        88  64  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     88  65  88  65 /  20  10  10   0
Russellville AR   88  65  90  65 /  30  10  10  10
Searcy AR         88  65  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56