Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
236 FXUS64 KLZK 180550 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1250 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 All types of Severe Weather are possible Saturday - Damaging Winds will be the greatest threat along a line of storms - Large Hail will be possible early in the afternoon over western and NW Arkansas - Tornado threat is low, but embedded tornadoes along the line of storms is possible - Flash Flooding is possible over NW Arkansas if multiple storms move over the same location Cooler weather will move into the area Sunday through early next week - && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Saturday will be an active day as a cold front and strong upper level shortwave pushes through Arkansas from west to east this afternoon. Guidance is in decent agreement on timing and setup for this event. As the upper level shortwave trough approaches a prefrontal trough and surge in dewpoints will surge northward along a LLJ into eastern OK and KS throughout the morning. This dewpoint surge and convergence ahead of the boundary will be the focal point for convective initiation. As storms form along the prefrontal boundary they will start out discrete for a brief period, but will quickly become multi-clustered to a full on linear storm mode due to the strong amount of lift from the low level convergence and upper level lift. Storm motion and shear vectors also enhance this linear development as they run parallel along the boundary. These initial storms will have the greatest chance for isolated supercells with SBCAPE above 1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 40kts. The only limited factor is that the winds are all veered and hodographs don`t show much SRH or curvature to the shear, leading to an environment that may allow splitting storms. Any right movers could tap into the lower SRH values and cause some rotation and larger hail. Tornadoes can`t be completely ruled out but with SW surface winds there is not a great setup for supercell tornadoes. After the initial storm development, a cold pool looks to develop quickly which will be enhanced as the surface cold front surges east into the line of storms. This surge will likely lead to a QLCS type setup along portions of the line which will change the storm threat to more of a damaging wind threat. The strong winds behind the front with a LLJ of 25-30kts will only enhance the chance of severe winds reaching the surface with any bowing or surging along the line. This line will then push through the state and may be the main cause of damage for this event. Embedded tornadoes along the QLCS is possible with 0-3km vectors veering to a W-E orientation and speeds of 30- 35kts. This setup is baseline for QLCS type tornadoes, so these will need to be monitored based on how the storm system evolves. The eastern half of the state will have the greatest threat of these embedded tornadoes as the line of storms start to balance with the cold pool and shear. NW Arkansas could see the heavies rain as the the storms stall along the prefrontal boundary before a cold pool develops with 2-4" possible. The rest of the state will see 1-2" as the storms push through, but the progressive nature of the line of storms should limit flash flooding. By early evening the line of storms will likely be out of AR and by midnight the high pressure will start to move back into the area. The coolest are of the season will move into Arkansas Sunday through Tuesday with highs only in the 60s over northern Arkansas Sunday and most the area in the mid to lower 40s Monday morning. Another shortwave trough moves through the central plains that will extend a dry cold front down through the area Monday night into Tuesday, but little to no precip is expected outside far eastern or southern Arkansas. High pressure builds back into the area through Thursday before the next wave moves in Friday which could be another active day or so as that feature pushes through. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 An active weather pattern will create unfavorable aviation conditions today as a cold front move through the state in the afternoon into the evening. Expect stronger than normal winds out of the southwest at 15 gusting 25kts ahead of the storm with a quick wind shift and increase in winds as the front and storms push through. Lower ceilings and visibility will be accompanied by a line of thunderstorms that will move through all TAF sites. The storms will move into northern Arkansas by 18-20Z with the southern and central sites experiencing storms after 21-22Z. These storms will last a few hours with lingering rain and possible MVFR ceilings for a few hours through the end of the TAF period. Times could adjust in subsequent TAFs as guidance updates, plus this type of setup can have the storms surge quicker than guidance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 85 52 71 45 / 80 80 0 0 Camden AR 85 54 72 44 / 70 80 0 0 Harrison AR 78 47 65 46 / 90 50 0 0 Hot Springs AR 84 52 71 46 / 80 60 0 0 Little Rock AR 84 55 69 48 / 80 80 0 0 Monticello AR 87 58 73 46 / 40 90 0 0 Mount Ida AR 83 50 71 44 / 80 50 0 0 Mountain Home AR 81 49 67 45 / 90 60 0 0 Newport AR 88 54 70 46 / 70 90 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 87 57 70 46 / 60 80 0 0 Russellville AR 84 52 71 46 / 80 50 0 0 Searcy AR 86 52 70 44 / 80 80 0 0 Stuttgart AR 87 57 69 47 / 60 90 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BARHAM AVIATION...BARHAM