766
FXUS64 KLZK 151720
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of east, central and
  southern Arkansas

- Isolated showers & t`storms possible in central Arkansas Tuesday

- Drier conditions to build in through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Generally very similar conditions persist under the stout H500 ridge
that has dominated the region through the last several weeks. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for most of Arkansas except for the
Ozarks Tuesday. Well above normal temperatures and humid conditions
will have afternoon Apparent Ts peaking just under 110 this
afternoon. Winds remain generally light out of the SSW with a couple
of gusts between 15-20 mph possible along the AR/MO border Tuesday
afternoon. A lazy CU field will begin to develop around 18z or so.
As this field matures an isolated to a few showers and t`storms
could develop to the south of the I-30/57 corridor. Lack of shear
will keep any development rather unorganized and quick in nature.
PWATs over 2 inches across the state would be supportive of high
rain rates in any development. A few CAM runs have a very subtle
shortwave attempting to form across central MO. If this can
materialize and storms can form north of I-40 in east AR small
pockets of 20-25 kts of bulk shear could support a bit more
organized storm mode in NE AR. This would be very conditional and
require perfect timing on both the shortwave and afternoon
convection arriving at the same time. Any activity will diminish in
intensity and coverage with loss of peak heating. Relatively clear
skies will return to the overnight period.

Looking later into the week heat headlines will likely need to be
extended through several more days as the ridge over central CONUS
remains planted over the region. On Wednesday, the best chances for
afternoon shower and t`storm activity will flip to the north side of
the I-30/57 corridor with coverage decreasing after peak diurnal
heating. Drier air begins to move into the region Thursday and
likely shuts off rain chances until late in the weekend. Any
recovery of fuels and soil moisture from last week`s rain will
quickly eroded as Min RHs start to drop into the low 30th percentile
with the drier air.

Mid to long range guidance is hinting at a more active pattern
starting to work its way into the region late in the weekend to next
week. A return to near normal temperatures could be on deck to
provide a much needed break from the oppressive heat. Additionally,
a shot of moisture out of the Gulf is possible early next week. If
these arrive in phase widespread meaningful rainfall will be
possible across the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mostly
clear skies with winds out of the south to southwest through the
afternoon hours. Winds are likely to become mostly light and
variable later tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75 101  75 100 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         73  98  73  97 /  20   0   0   0
Harrison AR       74  95  73  95 /   0  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  76  98  76  97 /  20   0   0   0
Monticello AR     75  97  74  96 /  20   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      72  98  72  97 /  10  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  73  97  72  97 /   0  10   0   0
Newport AR        75  99  74  98 /  10   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     74  97  73  96 /  20   0   0   0
Russellville AR   75  99  74  98 /  10  10   0   0
Searcy AR         74 100  72  99 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      76 100  75  99 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ007-008-016-017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-130-137-138-
140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...73