Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
518 FXUS64 KLZK 181750 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 All types of Severe Weather are possible Saturday - Damaging Winds will be the greatest threat along a line of storms - Large Hail will be possible early in the afternoon over western and NW Arkansas - Tornado threat is low, but embedded tornadoes along the line of storms is possible - Flash Flooding is possible over NW Arkansas if multiple storms move over the same location Cooler weather will move into the area Sunday through early next week - && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Saturday will be an active day as a cold front and strong upper level shortwave pushes through Arkansas from west to east this afternoon. Guidance is in decent agreement on timing and setup for this event. As the upper level shortwave trough approaches a prefrontal trough and surge in dewpoints will surge northward along a LLJ into eastern OK and KS throughout the morning. This dewpoint surge and convergence ahead of the boundary will be the focal point for convective initiation. As storms form along the prefrontal boundary they will start out discrete for a brief period, but will quickly become multi-clustered to a full on linear storm mode due to the strong amount of lift from the low level convergence and upper level lift. Storm motion and shear vectors also enhance this linear development as they run parallel along the boundary. These initial storms will have the greatest chance for isolated supercells with SBCAPE above 1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 40kts. The only limited factor is that the winds are all veered and hodographs don`t show much SRH or curvature to the shear, leading to an environment that may allow splitting storms. Any right movers could tap into the lower SRH values and cause some rotation and larger hail. Tornadoes can`t be completely ruled out but with SW surface winds there is not a great setup for supercell tornadoes. After the initial storm development, a cold pool looks to develop quickly which will be enhanced as the surface cold front surges east into the line of storms. This surge will likely lead to a QLCS type setup along portions of the line which will change the storm threat to more of a damaging wind threat. The strong winds behind the front with a LLJ of 25-30kts will only enhance the chance of severe winds reaching the surface with any bowing or surging along the line. This line will then push through the state and may be the main cause of damage for this event. Embedded tornadoes along the QLCS is possible with 0-3km vectors veering to a W-E orientation and speeds of 30- 35kts. This setup is baseline for QLCS type tornadoes, so these will need to be monitored based on how the storm system evolves. The eastern half of the state will have the greatest threat of these embedded tornadoes as the line of storms start to balance with the cold pool and shear. NW Arkansas could see the heavies rain as the the storms stall along the prefrontal boundary before a cold pool develops with 2-4" possible. The rest of the state will see 1-2" as the storms push through, but the progressive nature of the line of storms should limit flash flooding. By early evening the line of storms will likely be out of AR and by midnight the high pressure will start to move back into the area. The coolest are of the season will move into Arkansas Sunday through Tuesday with highs only in the 60s over northern Arkansas Sunday and most the area in the mid to lower 40s Monday morning. Another shortwave trough moves through the central plains that will extend a dry cold front down through the area Monday night into Tuesday, but little to no precip is expected outside far eastern or southern Arkansas. High pressure builds back into the area through Thursday before the next wave moves in Friday which could be another active day or so as that feature pushes through. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Active weather is expected this afternoon across Arkansas. A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the state along and ahead of the cold front this afternoon and evening. Expect winds 05-15 kts out of the southwest gusts up to 20-25 kts. As the line of storms passes over terminals gusts up to 35 kts or higher are possible mainly after 19z for KHRO and KBPK, then around 22z for central and southern area TAF sites. In additional to wind gusts, there will be short periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings. Shower and thunderstorm activities is expected to move away from terminals in the 00-02z with winds veering to the northwest at around 06z with some gust around 15-20 kts possible before winds weaken near the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 52 69 44 76 / 90 0 0 0 Camden AR 54 70 44 77 / 90 0 0 0 Harrison AR 46 64 44 74 / 60 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 51 70 45 76 / 60 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 56 69 47 76 / 90 0 0 0 Monticello AR 58 72 46 78 / 100 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 49 70 44 77 / 40 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 49 66 44 75 / 80 0 0 0 Newport AR 56 69 45 75 / 90 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 56 70 46 76 / 90 0 0 0 Russellville AR 51 70 46 79 / 50 0 0 0 Searcy AR 53 70 43 77 / 90 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 56 69 46 75 / 90 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BARHAM AVIATION...Kelly