Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
180 FXUS64 KLZK 100835 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 235 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 231 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 -Coldest air of the season expected Monday morning...resulting in widespread freezing to hard-freezing conditions. -Wind chills will drop to the lower teens Monday morning for portions of northern Arkansas and the the higher terrain of the Ozarks. -Additional widespread freeze expected Monday night/Tuesday morning. -Mainly dry and warming conditions expected through the week ahead, with temperatures moderating back to the 60s to 70s. -Rain chances return to the forecast area by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Latest objective sfc analyses and sfc obs indicated broad and strong sfc high pressure settling over the Cntrl to Nrn Plains, w/ robust cold advection ushering in the coldest temps of the season for Arkansas. Sfc obs acrs Nrn AR had fallen to the mid 20s as of 08Z, w/ most of Cntrl to Srn AR also below freezing in the upper 20s to low 30s. Expect a chilly and blustery morning for most of Arkansas, with gusty NWrly winds persisting thru early Mon aftn. Morning wind chill values acrs Nrn AR wl reach the low teens, to possibly single digits, but the good news is, this should be a one-morning instance, w/ winds relaxing acrs the state by Tues. Mon aftn wl stay chilly, w/ temps only climbing to the low to mid 40s for most locations. Several sites may approach daily low-high temperatures to a few degrees, w/ daily climatology indicating contending location records (mainly over Cntrl to Srn AR) are in the low 40s. Another overnight hard-freeze is expected Mon night into Tues mrng, w/ area low-temps falling to the mid to upper 20s once again. However, daily high and low temps wl begin to rebound quickly by Tues aftn, as broad sfc high pressure drifts Ewrd, ushering in low- lvl SWrly flow. Daily high temps wl trend upwards from the 60s on Tues, to the mid 70s by Fri aftn, w/ mean Ern US troughing and Wrn US ridging keeping upper-lvl subsidence in place over the Srn Cntrl US. As such, dry and warming weather is expected thru the week, before a possible pattern change brings rain chances back to the FA by this weekend. Several uncertainties remain given the extended timeframe, but deterministic and ensemble guidance is indicative of Wrn US ridging weakening by late this week, w/ a prominent trof digging Swrd quickly out of the Pac-NW, and maneuvering Ewrd, ejecting over the Srn Great Plains. Prominent moisture return is progged, w/ NAEFS climatology suggesting near 90%ile precip water values extending over much of the Srn Cntrl US and Gulf Coast. For now, moderate chance PoPs are included in the fcst for much of the state next weekend, but greater details on any hazardous weather potential remain unclear. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 VFR condns wl prevail thru the new TAF PD, w/ clear skies, and gusty NWrly winds of 10-15 kts persisting thru Mon aftn. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 44 27 60 42 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 47 27 61 44 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 41 25 60 42 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 47 28 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 45 29 61 44 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 46 29 61 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 48 27 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 42 25 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 44 27 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 45 27 61 44 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 48 28 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 44 26 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 44 29 60 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ008-017-024- 025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140- 141-221-222-230-237-238-240-241-340-341. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...72