583
FXUS64 KLZK 110532 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1232 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

-Daily hazardous heat and humidity will persist through the work
week, including heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees.

-Widespread rain chances return to the forecast by late week and
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Thru the next few days, hazardous heat and humidity levels wl
continue to be the main talking point acrs the FA. Expect high
temperatures to top out in the low to mid 90s, with heat index
values reaching 100 to 105 degrees. The greatest concern for heat
risk and hazardous heat levels wl exist acrs the AR River Valley,
and much of Ern AR and the River Delta regions.

Thru the Thurs-Fri timeframe, there is reasonable consensus on the
evolution of an upper trof set to move acrs the Great Lakes regions,
w/ asctd sfc cyclonic flow and a trailing cdfrnt extending SWwrd
into the Ozark Plateau and Srn Plains late Thurs evng. There wl lkly
be an attendant isolated severe threat acrs NWrn ahead of the frnt
as it approaches into moderate instability, but weaker effective
shear, generally less than 30 knots. Main threats w/ any ongoing
storms would be large hail and damaging winds.

The aforementioned frnt is progged to stall out acrs the Ozark
Plateau vcty, and become the focus for daily PoPs thru the weekend.
NBM guidance remains settled on weekend QPF totals around 2 to 3
inches acrs at least the Wrn half of the state, w/ probabilistic QPF
thresholds for at least two inches up to 40 to 50%. For now, there
is still higher uncertainty  w/ NBM IQR spread around 2 inches, and
10th to 90th percentile spread closer to 4 inches over much of the
state.

GFS/ECMWF fcst mass fields continue to indicate higher deterministic
QPF progs are contributable to mesoscale features in the model
output, and still have a higher degree of variability in time and
space at the end range of the current fcst PD. Ensemble guidance
remains rooted on widespread rainfall potential over the Srn Plains
during the Sun-Tues timeframe, w/ a favorable synoptic pattern for
possibly heavy to excessive rainfall at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Expect mainly VFR condns thru the overnight PD, w/ some
intermittent MVFR CIGs possible acrs Wrn and Cntrl terminals thru
11/14Z. Thru the day Thurs, gusty SWrly winds wl prevail, w/ gusts
near 20 kts at times. Late in the PD, near 12/00Z, precip chances
are expected to incrs over NWrn AR along an advancing cdfrnt. Have
introduced PROB30 groups for Nrn terminals, but low confidence
exists on timing and covg of TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     94  74  88  72 /   0  70  20  40
Camden AR         94  77  90  75 /   0  20  50  30
Harrison AR       89  67  83  69 /   0  90  10  50
Hot Springs AR    93  77  88  75 /   0  60  60  20
Little Rock   AR  93  77  88  75 /   0  50  40  30
Monticello AR     95  78  91  76 /   0  10  50  30
Mount Ida AR      91  76  86  74 /   0  60  60  20
Mountain Home AR  91  68  84  68 /   0  90  10  40
Newport AR        94  75  88  72 /   0  70  30  40
Pine Bluff AR     94  78  88  75 /   0  40  50  20
Russellville AR   93  76  88  75 /   0  70  40  20
Searcy AR         94  75  89  72 /   0  70  30  40
Stuttgart AR      94  78  88  75 /   0  50  50  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72