661
FXUS64 KLZK 292001
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
301 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Well above normal temperatures for much of the state through
  Thursday, then cooler temperatures through the weekend.

- Increasing chances of rain from west to east from late week
  into the weekend

- Highest rainfall amounts through the period are expected across
  western AR with amounts diminishing with eastward extent

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Satellite this afternoon shows mid and level cloudiness streaming
into parts of northwest and northern Arkansas. Temperatures
across the state range from the lower 80s up north to temperatures
in the lower 90s across far southern Arkansas. Aloft ,the mid
level ridge axis is just west of the state. High temperatures will
continue to stay around 5 to 10 degrees above normal through at
least Thursday for late September into early October.

Attention turns to the approaching front/trough that will bring
rain chances to most of the state. Latest deterministic guidance
shows the digging trough and cut off low currently south of the
Four corners region. The cutoff low/trough will move into
central/southern Plains sometime Wednesday night into Thursday
while also absorbing the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Polo.

Both determinisitic models shows the trough with cut off low will
become an open wave and lift northward out of the Texas/Oklahoma
panhandle region in response to the upper ridge over the
southeastern US strengthening. Model solutions diverge on
strength of the ridge with the ECMWF showing a stronger ridge than
the GFS. The strength of the upper ridge will keep the attendant
cold front just outside of the state through Thursday night. The
cold front is expected to finally push through the state on
Friday and exiting the state by Sunday afternoon/evening. Cooler
and drier air will filter into the state with high temperatures a
degree or two below normal for early October.


With regards to rainfall totals, latest run of the ECMWF ensemble
shows rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts up to 3 inches through Friday across parts of
northwest and far western Arkansas. The ECMWF ensemble shows
lesser rainfall amounts around an inch elsewhere within the state
in the same time frame. The GFS ensemble shows the axis of 1-2
inches of rainfall further east into western toward west central
Arkansas, but keeps the axis of totals of 2-3 inches just a tad
further east but remaining within the region. NBM 25th percentile
shows between 1-2 inches over parts of northwest and far western
Arkansas with less than a half inch across southwest, northern,
and northeast Arkansas with the rest of the state void of
measurable rainfall. The NBM 75th percentile shows a swath of 2 to
3 inches across western and northwest Arkansas with an inch of
rainfall along the I-57 corridor south and west to Camden. Areas
east of there across parts of each and southeast Arkansas
receiving an half inch or less of rainfall. The mean NBM solution
is similar to the NBM 75th percentile solution. At this time,
confidence due to seeing run to run consistency and ensembles is
leaning more toward the 25th percentile being the more likely
solution.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Satellite
early this afternoon shows mid level cloudiness beginning to push
into parts of northwest Arkansas. Expect mid and high level
cloudiness to overspread the state through the remainder of the
afternoon into the evening. Light winds mainly out of the south
and southeast will prevail through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  93  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         67  94  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       68  89  71  86 /   0  10  10  50
Hot Springs AR    68  92  72  91 /   0   0   0  30
Little Rock   AR  68  93  73  92 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     68  93  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      66  91  70  89 /   0   0   0  40
Mountain Home AR  66  91  71  88 /   0  10   0  40
Newport AR        66  93  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   68  92  72  90 /   0   0   0  40
Searcy AR         65  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      68  95  72  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76