809
FXUS64 KLZK 021115 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
615 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Widespread rain chances will slowly expand east across the state from
  Thursday into Friday, continuing into the weekend

- Highest rainfall amounts are expected across western Arkansas
  with amounts tapering off to the east

- Much cooler temperatures likely from Friday through early next
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Recent radar imgry depicted sctd covg of precip moving NEwrd acrs
the the NWrn half of the FA, located along a 35kt H850 LLJ. At the
sfc, a cdfrnt was noted moving SE slowly acrs the Cntrl Plains and
portions SErn KS. Thru the day Fri, expect this cdfrnt to continue
moving SEwrd into the FA, reaching NWrn AR b/w 12-15Z, but lkly
stalling acrs Cntrl AR. Asctd precip activity wl continue along a SW
to NE axis along the frnt, w/ latest HREF/REFS 50th percentile
guidance indicating a swath of 1-2 inches possible over much of Wrn
to NWrn AR thru Sat. NBM 50th percentile is also advertising similar
amounts, while much of Cntrl to SErn AR looks to receive minimal
rainfall, generally under one half to one inch. Some high-res LPMM
guidance suggests a few swaths of 2+ inches could be possible, but
rainfall amounts of this magnitude wl be confined any areas of
significant training.

Sat thru Sun, the previously stalled frnt should continue to slowly
move Swrd, ushering drier and cooler air into the region, w/ low
chance precip lingering over SErn AR. This frnt should bring a
seasonal airmass change to the region, w/ low temps in the 50s
expected on Mon mrng, and lows in the 40s acrs portions of the state
by Tues mrng. Thru early to mid-week next week, stronger H500 flow
wl recede poleward, w/ weak flow aloft and post-cdfrntl condns
contributing to below normal high temperatures acrs the FA, though
as Srly sfc flow resumes by mid-week, daily high temps wl trend
upwards once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Current radar indicated scattered precip over much of the FA near
12Z Fri mrng. Expect precip covg to persist thru much of the day
Fri for a majority of area terminals. MVFR to IFR CIGs and VISBYs
wl prevail over the region thru Fri aftn to evng. An approaching
cdfrnt, currently located in SE KS, wl usher a Nrly wdshft and
continue pushing Swrd into Cntrl AR by late Fri aftn, w/ ocsnl
gusty Nrly winds thru the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  57  73  57 / 100  30  10  10
Camden AR         83  63  79  61 /  70  20  30  50
Harrison AR       72  56  73  57 /  80  20  10  10
Hot Springs AR    79  61  75  61 /  90  30  30  20
Little Rock   AR  78  61  74  61 /  90  30  20  20
Monticello AR     87  64  81  63 /  40  20  40  50
Mount Ida AR      77  58  75  57 /  90  30  20  20
Mountain Home AR  73  56  74  56 /  80  10  10  10
Newport AR        75  61  73  61 / 100  20  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     82  61  77  60 /  80  20  20  40
Russellville AR   77  60  75  59 / 100  20  20  10
Searcy AR         77  59  74  59 /  90  20  20  20
Stuttgart AR      81  62  77  62 /  90  20  30  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72