215
FXUS64 KLZK 161728
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

-Chances for rain and thunderstorms will slowly diminish through
 mid-week.

-Temperatures are expected to increase to above-normal values over
 much of the state, with hazardous heat persisting through the
 remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Hot and humid condns wl cont to headline the fcst, w/ some ocsnl
chcs for rain chcs mixed over the next seven days. Thru the
remainder of the work week, incrsgly hot and humid condns are
expected, w/ high temps set to reach the upper 90s acrs the Srn two-
thirds of the state, and some locations flirting w/ 100 degrees.
Area heat index values are expected to exceed 105 degrees at most
locations the next few days, necessitating the return of heat
advisories, which wl be needed Thurs and Fri as well.

Some low-end rain chcs wl exist acrs Nrn AR later this aftn to evng,
ahead of a stalling cdfrnt over the Ozark Plateau, but most precip
wl lkly manifest as isolated showers and storms, w/ a lucky few
receiving cooling rainfall/outflow. Thurs is currently advertising
the hottest area-wide temps, w/ portions of the metro possibly
reaching 100 degrees by the aftn hours. Overall, 10th to 90th
percentile NBM spread is only suggesting 3-4 degrees difference acrs
the state, w/ 25th percentile output still suggesting temps in the
upper 90s at most locations, indicating higher confidence in high-
end temps.

Thru the weekend, more widespread PoPs appear possible as Gulf
moisture fm a decaying tropical system moves acrs the Gulf Coast.
Uncertainties remain for now regarding the extent of precip covg,
and magnitude of rainfall. Any potential relief fm weekend rainfall
looks to be short-lived w/ heat returning by early next week. Swrly
sfc winds acrs the Srn Cntrl US and H500 high pressure bcmg centered
over the FA wl contribute to temps once again climbing to near or at
the century mark over portions of the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Widespread cumulus field continues to develop but is expected to
dissipate quickly after sunset. Upper level high pressure will
continue to be in control with generally light and variable winds
expected. A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out over the
northern terminals this afternoon with primarily VFR conditions
expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     96  75  96  75 /  20   0  10  10
Camden AR         98  74 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       91  72  90  72 /  20  10  30  10
Hot Springs AR    97  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  98  77  99  78 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     98  77  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
Mount Ida AR      95  73  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  92  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  10
Newport AR        96  77  97  77 /  10   0  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     97  77  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   96  75  96  76 /  10   0  10   0
Searcy AR         96  75  97  75 /  10   0  10   0
Stuttgart AR      96  78  97  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ007-008-016-017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-123.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56