386
FXUS64 KLZK 020546 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1246 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Well above normal temperatures to persist across the southeast
  half of Arkansas on Thursday along with gusty southerly winds

- Widespread rain chances will slowly expand east across the state
  from Thursday into Friday, continuing into the weekend

- Highest rainfall amounts are expected across western Arkansas
  with amounts tapering off to the east

- Much cooler temperatures likely from Friday through early next
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

One more day of very warm temperatures is expected across much of
the state as sfc and mid-level ridging persist across the SE US.
Highs Thu afternoon are expected to climb into the 90s F once
again across much of central, southern and eastern Arkansas.
Precip will be slow to move in from the west Thursday, but
portions of western AR will see some occasional showers and
thunderstorms through the day. The precip and associated cloud
cover will help keep temperatures slightly cooler across the west.

The slow moving H500 low is located just west of the TX/OK
panhandles late this evening and has provided significant
rainfall to portions of the Central/Southern Plains on Wednesday.
Over the next 12-24 hours the mid-level low will weaken and begin
to open as it encounters the strong Southeast ridge. It will
slowly progress E/NE toward the Mid-MS Valley before being
absorbed into a northern stream trough advancing east across the
Ohio Valley.

At the sfc, a cold front will approach the area from the west and
will provide the focus for widespread precip from south Texas to
the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. With the loss of much upper
level support, this is where rainfall amounts begin to taper off.
The remnant moisture plume from Polo (characterized by PW values
of 2-2.5 inches) will begin to diminish and widespread rainfall
efficiency will be reduced. The spread in precip amounts amongst
various model solutions, including ensembles, remains high for an
event in this time-range. The general idea that western Arkansas
will see the highest rainfall totals still holds true, with
amounts expected to taper off toward the east. Before PW values
really diminish, there could be some localized rainfall totals of
2-4 inches in some spots through Friday morning, but these are
expected to remain isolated.

By the weekend the front will shift south of the state and precip
chances will diminish from north to south. The Southeast ridge
will be forced southward as a stronger trough builds across the
eastern US. This will provide NW flow aloft over the state and sfc
ridging will build in just north of the area. This will provide
at least a few days of below normal temperatures across the state.
There could even be a few mornings early next week with lows in
the 40s F across parts of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Latest radar depicted incrsg covg of precip/SHRA acrs the NWrn
half of the state near 02/06Z. Expect this covg to persist thru
the overnight hours and into the day Fri for a majority of area
terminals. Conditions are anticipated to deteriorate fm NW to SE
as a frnt moves into the region, w/ asctd MVFR to IFR CIGs and
VISBYs thru at least 03/00Z Fri evng. Nrly wdshft wl accompany the
FROPA, noted in Nrn AR near 12Z Fri mrng, and pushing Swrd thru
the day, w/ ocsnl gusty Nrly winds thru the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  59  73  58 / 100  30  20  10
Camden AR         84  64  78  61 /  70  20  40  40
Harrison AR       70  57  72  58 /  80  20  10  10
Hot Springs AR    79  62  74  61 /  90  30  40  40
Little Rock   AR  78  62  74  61 /  90  30  40  30
Monticello AR     87  67  81  63 /  40  20  40  40
Mount Ida AR      78  59  74  58 /  90  30  40  30
Mountain Home AR  71  56  73  57 /  80  10  10  10
Newport AR        76  61  73  61 / 100  20  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     83  63  77  60 /  80  20  40  40
Russellville AR   77  61  75  60 / 100  20  40  10
Searcy AR         77  61  74  60 /  90  20  30  30
Stuttgart AR      81  64  77  62 /  90  20  40  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...72