602
FXUS64 KLZK 190539
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1239 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

-Chances for rain and thunderstorms will persist through Thursday
 morning.

-Hot temperatures and humid air will lead to increasing heat
 indices and heat danger this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
across the state from this afternoon through the overnight, but
afternoon CAMs are struggling to get a grasp on where the most
widespread activity will occur. By later tonight into the early
morning hours, there is more agreement that one or two broken
lines of thunderstorms may merge and move south. There could be an
increased threat for damaging wind gusts, but the main concern
may actually be localized flash flooding given expected high
rainfall rates.

Behind this expected line of storms a cold front should push south
across the area. This will bring a change in weather conditions
with a largely rain-free forecast for at least a few days.

By Friday and into the weekend, H500 ridging will expand over the
region and will become the dominant weather feature. This will
provide above normal temperatures and humid air which will combine
to provide heat indices at or above heat advisory criteria at
times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VFR conds are expected to prevail through much of the TAF period.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA have developed across portions of N-Cntrl
into NE AR. This complex of convection should drift S through the
predawn hours. This activity will push into Cntrl/Srn AR on Thurs.
Winds will be W/SW at around 10 kts on Thurs. Precip should
diminish across the state by late Thurs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  72  93  75 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         90  73  93  74 /  40  10  10   0
Harrison AR       87  68  91  72 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    91  72  94  74 /  30   0  10   0
Little Rock   AR  91  74  94  76 /  30   0  10   0
Monticello AR     90  74  94  76 /  60  10  20   0
Mount Ida AR      91  72  93  74 /  30   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  88  68  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        91  73  93  76 /  20   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     90  73  93  75 /  50  10  10   0
Russellville AR   91  72  93  74 /  20   0  10   0
Searcy AR         90  72  93  74 /  20   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      90  74  92  77 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...70