671
FXUS64 KLZK 021125
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
525 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Areas of dense fog will persist this morning.

- An approaching weather system will bring rain chances across
  western sections of Arkansas this afternoon and statewide
  tonight and Tuesday.

- Some stronger thunderstorms can not be ruled out over the west
  today and across the remainder of the state tonight into Tuesday
  night. the primary concern will be gusty winds.

- Beneficial rain of an inch to an inch and a half will be
  possible with this weather system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Local observations and satellite imagery from across the region
this morning indicates expansive low clouds and areas of fog that
are locally dense. Fog is not widespread enough and visibility is
not low enough to hoist any headlines at this time but the
situation will continue to be monitored through the remainder of
the night. Southeast winds between 6 and 10 mph are likely
keeping widespread dense fog from developing.

Forecast area remains under shortwave ridging with surface high
off the Mid Atlantic coast providing a moist SE surface flow.
Ridge will be moving off to the east today with a highly amplified
upper trough, projected by guidance, to be located in the central
plains by the end of the day and moving towards the Mississippi
Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. A stray shower or two can be be
excluded during the day today but the majority of the FA will be
dry.

Guidance develops convection over eastern Oklahoma by the end of
the day in an increasingly moist and unstable environment as the
trough approaches. This area of convection will move into western
Arkansas tonight and move across the majority of the FA Tuesday. A
few of these storms may may produce a few damaging wind gusts
especially during the afternoon hours when what instability there
is will be maximized.

Widespread, ongoing precipitation, cloud cover and less than
ideal dynamics will likely mitigate a widespread severe threat.
The associated surface boundary moves from eastern Oklahoma early
on Tuesday, into central Arkansas by the end of the day and
crosses the Mississippi River Tuesday evening. Upper support will
swing through primarily northern Arkansas keeping at least a
chance of showers Tuesday night into very early Wednesday.

Zonal flow returns for most of Wednesday before another upper
wave drops down for Thursday night and Friday but only minimal
chances of rain are expected with this feature. Rainfall amounts
of an inch to possibly an inch and a half are expected with
locally higher amounts near any stronger convection. Seasonably
cool air will overspread the FA in the wake of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Abundant low level moisture will result in widespread IFR to MVFR
conditions for the majority of the period. Cigs and vsby will
improve somewhat during the afternoon but quickly deteriorate once
again during the evening and overnight hours. An approaching
storm system will bring showers and possible thunderstorms to the
northern and western terminals at the conclusion of the TAF
cycle. Southeast winds will prevail and increase to in excess of
10 knots with higher gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  63  75  52 /  20  50  90  40
Camden AR         80  63  76  48 /  20  30  80  20
Harrison AR       75  61  72  49 /  10  80  90  10
Hot Springs AR    78  63  74  49 /  20  80 100   0
Little Rock   AR  79  65  76  53 /  20  30  90  30
Monticello AR     79  66  79  54 /  20  10  60  60
Mount Ida AR      78  61  75  44 /  20  80 100   0
Mountain Home AR  73  62  71  50 /  10  50  90  30
Newport AR        77  64  77  54 /  20  20  60  50
Pine Bluff AR     79  64  78  51 /  20  10  70  40
Russellville AR   78  64  75  50 /  20  70  90   0
Searcy AR         77  63  76  51 /  20  40  80  40
Stuttgart AR      78  65  78  54 /  20  10  60  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...62