098
FXUS64 KLZK 281721
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Low rain chances across mainly western Arkansas on Monday

- Increasing temperatures through Wednesday

- Expectations remain high for beneficial rainfall to occur across
  Arkansas from late week into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Main features in place across the CONUS early this morning include
H500 cyclones off the Mid-Atlantic and northern California
coasts, H500 ridging across the middle of the country and
Hurricane Polo off the Baja Peninsula. Locally, mid-level NW flow
will remain in place for one more day which will assist in some
isolated shower/thunderstorm development across mainly western
portions of the state.

From Tue to Wed, the mid-level ridge axis west of the area will
shift east and be positioned from south Texas toward the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes. At the sfc, ridging to the east will
provide a return to srly flow across the state and temperatures
will warm to well above normal values. As the heat peaks on
Wednesday, daytime highs will be nearly 10 degrees above normal
for late September.

Beyond Wednesday, confidence in various forecast elements begins
to decrease. The western US H500 cyclone will be trying to make
its way east of the Four Corners. Ahead of this feature, tropical
moisture associated with the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Polo
will be streaming northeast across the Southern/Central Plains.
This moisture will be characterized by anomalously high PW values
of 2 inches or more.

From Thu to Fri mid-level ridging across the Southeast begins to
strengthen and will become a major roadblock for the SW cyclone.
This will likely lead to the H500 low opening and lifting more
northward toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes where enhanced
zonal flow will be in place. How long it takes for this to happen
will dictate time of arrival for precip across the state as well
as how much precip falls. At this point, a slower arrival time of
precip from west to east across the state is expected. This will
provide a multi-day heavy rainfall event across portions of New
Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas.

GFS and ECMWF Ensemble data both remain optimistic in appreciable
rainfall across Arkansas. Both outputs indicate a greater than
70% chance of more than one inch of rain through the period. Probs
of greater than two inches of rain is greater than 40% between
both models, with the GEFS output being higher than the ECMWF.
What is agreed upon by both models is the highest rainfall totals
remain likely across the western third to half of the state. Given
the ongoing high wildfire danger and short/long term rainfall
deficits in place, hopefully things will line up for widespread
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period across
the state. Light east to northeast winds through the rest of the
day, then light and variable winds overnight. On Tuesday, expect
winds to remain light but veer to the south-southeast across the
state.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     55  87  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         60  93  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       58  87  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    60  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  60  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     61  92  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      58  90  64  91 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  56  86  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        56  87  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     58  90  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   60  88  65  91 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         57  90  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      59  90  66  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...76