748
FXUS64 KLZK 081149
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
649 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

-Another bout of locally heavy to excessive rainfall, totals near 2
to 4 inches, will be possible across portions of northwest Arkansas
through the later hours on Monday morning.

-Rainfall chances will diminish, with hazardous heat conditions
persisting through the work week, including heat index values
reaching 100 to 105 degrees daily.

-Rain chances return to the forecast by late week and into next
 weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Recent radar imgry depicted incrsg covg of convective development
acrs the Ozark Plateau region where an H850 LLJ and region of strong
wrm advection was recent analyzed. Elsewhere, precip covg has
dwindled and continued to move Ewrd fm earlier aftn activity, in
tandem w/ a passing H500 shortwave.

Thru the next 12-18 hrs, 00Z suite of CAM and hi-res ensemble
guidance has highlighted portions of NWrn AR for potential heavy to
excessive rainfall fm a slow-moving and back-building MCS. 90th
percentile HREF solns suggest QPF in excess of 2 to 4 inches wl be
possible thru the 12Z to 18Z window early Mon mrng, w/ recent
rainfall of up to 1 inch having fallen in the region in the past
day, resulting in some soil priming. The greatest flash flooding
concerns would lkly be more terrain driven, and obviously, where
greatest convective training occurs.

Elsewhere on Mon, hot and humid condns are on deck w/ gusty Swrly
winds prevailing. Area temps are set to climb to the low 90s, w/
portions of Cntrl AR and the AR River Valley reaching heat index
values of 100 degrees or more.

Tues and thru the remainder of the fcst PD, H500 flow wl briefly
transition to shortwave ridging acrs the Srn Cntrl US, bcmg more
zonal by mid to late week. Precip chances wl diminish acrs the FA,
w/ daily high temps reaching the low to mid 90s at most locations.
Antecedent humidity levels wl contribute to the first week of
hazardous heat of the summer acrs the FA, w/ local heat index values
reaching 100 to 105 degrees, and WBG temps reaching the mid to upper
80s. Of more concern wl be limited overnight cooling, as current low
temp fcst values indicate widespread mid to upper 70s fm Tues to
Thurs nights.

Towards the end of the work week and into next weekend, there is
still some signal for returning rain chances based on the
progression of a longwave trof and asctd sfc cdfrnt, set to move
thru the Cntrl to High Plains thru the Thurs-Fri timeframe, though
discrepancies still exist amongst the latest 00Z GFS/ECMWF solns.
Nevertheless, the presence of at least strong Wrly flow and subtle
troughing remains present amongst most global ensemble solns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A complex of storms are expected to move into Arkansas from
Missouri and track south-southeastward across the state early this
morning and continue track through the state throughout the day.
CIGS will lower briefly in advance of this activity to MVFR flight
category. TEMPO groups have been utilized where the storms will
be strongest and may drop VSBY to IFR flight category and winds
may gusts in excess of 35 knots. Storms will approach the central
and southeastern terminals by midday.CIGS and VSBY will improve
to VFR flight category by Monday afternoon into Monday evening as
the activity completely clears the state


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  75  92  76 /  40  10   0   0
Camden AR         92  74  94  76 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       86  73  88  73 /  80   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    90  76  92  77 /  20  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  90  76  93  77 /  30  10   0   0
Monticello AR     91  75  94  75 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      88  76  90  76 /  20   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  86  72  89  72 /  70  10   0   0
Newport AR        90  75  93  76 /  40  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     91  75  93  76 /  30  10   0   0
Russellville AR   90  77  93  77 /  30   0   0   0
Searcy AR         91  75  93  75 /  30  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      91  76  93  77 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ004-103-112-113-
121-203-212-213-221-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74