331
FXUS64 KLZK 160525
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1225 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of east, central and
  southern Arkansas

- Isolated showers & t`storms possible in central Arkansas Tuesday

- Drier conditions to build in through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Generally very similar conditions persist under the stout H500 ridge
that has dominated the region through the last several weeks. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for most of Arkansas except for the
Ozarks Tuesday. Well above normal temperatures and humid conditions
will have afternoon Apparent Ts peaking just under 110 this
afternoon. Winds remain generally light out of the SSW with a couple
of gusts between 15-20 mph possible along the AR/MO border Tuesday
afternoon. A lazy CU field will begin to develop around 18z or so.
As this field matures an isolated to a few showers and t`storms
could develop to the south of the I-30/57 corridor. Lack of shear
will keep any development rather unorganized and quick in nature.
PWATs over 2 inches across the state would be supportive of high
rain rates in any development. A few CAM runs have a very subtle
shortwave attempting to form across central MO. If this can
materialize and storms can form north of I-40 in east AR small
pockets of 20-25 kts of bulk shear could support a bit more
organized storm mode in NE AR. This would be very conditional and
require perfect timing on both the shortwave and afternoon
convection arriving at the same time. Any activity will diminish in
intensity and coverage with loss of peak heating. Relatively clear
skies will return to the overnight period.

Looking later into the week heat headlines will likely need to be
extended through several more days as the ridge over central CONUS
remains planted over the region. On Wednesday, the best chances for
afternoon shower and t`storm activity will flip to the north side of
the I-30/57 corridor with coverage decreasing after peak diurnal
heating. Drier air begins to move into the region Thursday and
likely shuts off rain chances until late in the weekend. Any
recovery of fuels and soil moisture from last week`s rain will
quickly eroded as Min RHs start to drop into the low 30th percentile
with the drier air.

Mid to long range guidance is hinting at a more active pattern
starting to work its way into the region late in the weekend to next
week. A return to near normal temperatures could be on deck to
provide a much needed break from the oppressive heat. Additionally,
a shot of moisture out of the Gulf is possible early next week. If
these arrive in phase widespread meaningful rainfall will be
possible across the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Widespread VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Winds
remain light out of the SSW with a few gusts in higher elevation
areas in the north. Shower and t`storms are expected to begin to
form in NW AR by mid day. Coverage should expand to most of west
and southern AR throughout the afternoon, but remain more
scattered. Precip should diminish after sunset. Overall, coverage
remains low enough to not prevail at any site. However, if any
convection wanders over a terminal expect gusty winds and sub VFR
flight conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    100  75 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         98  73  98  70 /  20  20   0   0
Harrison AR       95  73  95  72 /  30  30  10   0
Hot Springs AR    99  75  98  72 /  20  20   0   0
Little Rock   AR  99  76  99  74 /   0  20   0   0
Monticello AR     97  75  97  72 /   0  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      98  72  98  70 /  20  20   0   0
Mountain Home AR  97  73  97  72 /  20  20   0   0
Newport AR        99  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     98  73  97  71 /   0  20   0   0
Russellville AR   99  74  99  73 /  20  20   0   0
Searcy AR         99  73 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR     100  75 100  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-130-137-138-
140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...78