855
FXUS64 KLZK 170527
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

-Oppressive heat will continue this Sunday and into some of this
coming work week

-Upper ridge will move west early this week...which will bring some
slight relief for portions of the state

-Some chances for afternoon convection return to the forecast
 today...and especially for Monday as a weak front moves into the
 state

-Stronger front may bring more significant relief from the heat late
this week into the upcoming weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Quiet conditions are ongoing across the region once again...with
mainly light winds allowing for temps to slowly dip into the upper
70s to mid 80s early this Sun morning. Expect lows to drop back into
the 70s to near 80 by around sunrise.

The center of the upper ridge remains over portions of the state
early this Sun morning...though this ridge looks to start slowly
shifting wast starting this afternoon. Some slight weakness in the
upper ridge by this afternoon could allow for some very isolated
convective activity to develop over portions of the state...mainly
across NRN/NWRN sections. Most areas will remain dry however...with
highs in the upper 90s to over 100...and heat index vales likely 100
to over 110.

The upper ridge will shift further west for Mon...allowing for a
weak SFC front to drop south into the state. Chances for isolated
and even some widely scattered convection will increase as this
front drops south into central AR by Mon afternoon. This activity
may allow for temps Mon afternoon to remain below 100 over NRN
AR...but could still reach 100+ over central sections before any
precip develops. SRN sections will still see the very hot conditions
persist...as precip chances should remain a bit lower in this region
of the state.

Keep heat headlines persisting into Mon afternoon/evening...though
some adjustments could be done for Mon if temps/heat index values
stay lower behind the front for NRN sections. However...even with
the upper ridge shifting further west on Tue...and NW flow aloft is
seen into the middle of the week...may still need additional heat
headlines into the middle of the week.

Upper ridging looks to return some by the middle/latter half of the
week briefly...with hot conditions expected. However...a new front
looks to move into the region late this week into the upcoming
weekend as a more substantial upper shortwave drops south over the
region. This late forecast front looks more aggressive...which may
provide a bit more relief and better rain chances by the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conds are expected to prevail through the period. Mentioned
low-end PoPs at KLIT, KHOT, and KPBF Mon afternoon/evening
associated with a slow moving frontal boundary. N of the front,
winds should N/NE at around 10 kts and S of the front, winds
should be W/SW at less than 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     99  74  98  76 /  20  10  10   0
Camden AR        101  75 101  77 /  20   0   0   0
Harrison AR       93  70  95  76 /  20  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR   102  75 101  77 /  20  10  10   0
Little Rock   AR 102  77 102  79 /  20  10  10   0
Monticello AR    101  78 101  79 /  20  10  10  10
Mount Ida AR     102  74 101  76 /  20  10  10   0
Mountain Home AR  92  71  94  73 /  20  10  10   0
Newport AR        98  73  97  75 /  20  20  10   0
Pine Bluff AR    100  75 100  77 /  20  10  10  10
Russellville AR  102  75 102  76 /  20  10   0   0
Searcy AR        100  74  99  75 /  20  10  10   0
Stuttgart AR     101  76 100  77 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-
024-042-052>054-062-063-066>069-123-137-140-141-221>223-237-240-
241-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ025-
031>034-039-043>047-055>057-064-065-121-122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...70