465
FXUS64 KLZK 141737
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1237 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

-Chances for rain and thunderstorms will slowly diminish through
 mid-week.

-Temperatures are expected to increase to above normal values by
 mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Early morning satellite/radar data shows precip largely moving
out of the area with much of the state drying out. Looking across
eastern OK/western AR, a remnant MCV is in place. This feature
will continue to drift NE through the day and may help trigger
showers/storms across N/NW AR this afternoon. In the wake of
yesterday`s fairly widespread precip, some FG may be possible
through the early morning hours.

The H500 trough that has been in place the last few days will
linger over the region and continue to influence rain chances
across the state for another day or two more. Coverage will be
slightly less than the past couple of days, but still expecting a
fair amount of activity during the afternoon/evening hours before
precip diminishes after sunset. With weak shear in place and high
PW values, a few storms could produce localized strong wind gusts
and heavy downpours. Temperatures will remain in check again
today with afternoon highs only expected to make it into the 80s F
to lower 90s F.

From Tue-Wed the mid-level trough will likely be absorbed into
the zonal flow north of the area and ridging across the SE US
will expand W/NW toward the Lower MS River Valley/Southern
Plains. This will provide a decrease in rain chances and an
increase in temperatures. By late week, highs may top out in the
mid to upper 90s F across much of the state. With Td values in the
70s F, this will lead to heat index values at or above 105 in
some locations. While precip chances will decrease, diurnally
driven isolated showers/storms will remain possible through the
rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Expect VFR flight category for the duration of the forecast period
from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. However, multiple
instances of VCTS have been included within "from" groups as
isolated VCTS is expected across northern, western, and central
terminals. Over the duration of the forecast period all terminals
will have a window in which VCTS will impact their terminal,
especially Monday afternoon into Monday night. Despite this, CIGS
are anticipated to remain in VFR flight category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  91  74  94 /  20  40  10  20
Camden AR         73  94  74  97 /  20  20   0  10
Harrison AR       70  86  72  90 /  20  30  10  30
Hot Springs AR    72  91  73  96 /  30  40  10  10
Little Rock   AR  74  93  75  96 /  20  30   0  10
Monticello AR     76  94  76  98 /  10  20   0  10
Mount Ida AR      70  89  72  93 /  30  40  10  10
Mountain Home AR  70  87  72  91 /  20  40  10  30
Newport AR        73  91  74  96 /  20  40   0  20
Pine Bluff AR     74  93  75  96 /  10  20   0  10
Russellville AR   72  91  73  94 /  30  30  10  20
Searcy AR         72  91  74  96 /  20  30   0  20
Stuttgart AR      75  92  77  96 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74