252
FXUS64 KLZK 150546 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

-Chances for rain and thunderstorms will slowly diminish through
 mid-week.

-Temperatures are expected to increase to above-normal values over
 much of the state, with hazardous heat returning by mid-week and
 persisting through much of the week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Current mosaic radar imgry depicted lingering precip activity acrs
Wrn AR. Most short-term guidance remains indicative of additional
development of overnight thunderstorms over the N/Wrn half of the FA
thru into later Tues mrng. QPF progs w/ this activity are also
continuing to advertise a few streaks of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
w/ some stronger storms, which could yield some isolated flooding
potential, but a more widespread flooding threat is not currently
anticipated.

Thru the week ahead, the main message wl shift towards hazardous
heat persisting over the FA. H500 anticyclonic flow is progged to
expand over much of the Srn Cntrl US, w/ a synoptic cdfrnt stalling
over the Cntrl Plains near mid-week, and residing as a stationary
frnt thru the remainder of the work week. Prior to the arrival of
this stalled frnt, daily rain chances wl dwindle to primarily
diurnally driven convective activity, w/ more prominent rain chances
returning to Nrn AR by Fri invof the aforementioned stalled frnt.

The next few days (particularly Wed and Thurs) are expected to host
hot aftn temps in the upper 90s acrs the Srn two-thirds of the
state, w/ higher humidity levels corresponding to peak heat index
values in excess of 105 degrees, necessitating the
potential for heat headlines once again. Despite incrsg rain
chances on Fri, any potential cool down looks to stay brief, w/
hazardous heat resuming thru the weekend and remainder of the PD.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR condns were noted acrs the FA, w/ only some lingering precip
over Wrn AR. Thru the overnight PD, expect a few additional rounds
of TS development acrs the NWrn half of the state, mainly
impacting Nrn terminals fm 12-16Z Tues mrng. Elsewhere, some
patchy FG may be seen acrs Cntrl AR, but confidence remains low on
more impactful VISBY restrictions near terminals. Thru the day
Tues, VFR condns wl prevail, w/ SWrly winds and mid-lvl BKN to OVC
cloud cover expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  74  94  74 /  50  10  30   0
Camden AR         95  74  98  73 /  20   0   0   0
Harrison AR       86  72  90  71 /  40  10  30  10
Hot Springs AR    93  73  96  74 /  40  10  10   0
Little Rock   AR  94  76  96  76 /  40  10  10   0
Monticello AR     94  77  98  76 /  20  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      91  73  93  72 /  50  10  10   0
Mountain Home AR  86  71  91  72 /  50  10  40   0
Newport AR        92  74  96  76 /  50  20  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     94  75  97  76 /  30  10   0   0
Russellville AR   90  73  95  74 /  40  10  20   0
Searcy AR         92  73  96  74 /  40  10  20   0
Stuttgart AR      93  76  96  77 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ004>006-014-015-031-
039-042-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72