Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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941 FXUS64 KLZK 251034 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 534 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 TUESDAY (Today): The upper lvl ridge remains fixated over the Southwestern region of the CONUS with a continuation of above normal temperatures expected to remain across the Natural State on average 8-10 degrees above average compared to climatological normals expected across the state. At the sfc, a dry stationary front will remained stalled along the Arkansas/Mississippi before moving away from the state back to the east. Expect surface winds to remain predominately out of the south- southwest to southwest across the state which will continue to usher in hot temperatures along with enough moisture via the Gulf of Mexico that will transpire to dewpoint temperatures (forecast Tuesday afternoon varying from the lower 60s to lower 70s statewide) leading the need for heat headlines once again meeting Heat Advisory criteria across the entire state of heat index values reaching and exceeding 105 degrees with an Excessive Heat Warning being needed across the eastern potion of Arkansas as heat index values will meet or exceed 110 degrees. Heat safety will need to be exercised on Tuesday as a near carbon copy day is expected with conditions to be similar to temperatures felt statewide on Monday. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: In the upper lvls, a shortwave approaches the state in conjunction with an approaching cold front at the sfc that will near the state Wednesday morning and move through the state during the day on Wednesday. Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm chances will increase throughout the day on Wednesday provide increased POPs across the CWA overall throughout the day. Compressional heating will be possible as the cold front approaches the area and heat headlines may be needed across the southern half of the state. It is important to understand that this cold front will in no way be cold, but only provide us with a slight and quick break away from the magnitude of hot and dry weather the entire CWA has been experiencing. Precipitation amounts are not expected to amount to much with most locations only seeing from a trace amount to as much as a couple tenths of an inch of rainfall over the period of Wednesday into Wednesday night. Expect statewide temperatures to rebound to their above normal values by Friday into the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Guidance continues to show a continuation of the hot conditions across the forecast area with only minimal relief, which will occur early in the period. Rain chances will also be minimal with guidance showing the upper ridge building right over the region early next week. Period initiates with some slightly cooler conditions in place in the wake of the weak boundary that moves through Wednesday. Highs will only reach the upper 80s to lower 90s as northerly winds will persist. Heat index values will likely not reach criteria for any type of headlines. The relief will likely be short lived as the upper level ridge will be shifting from the desert southwest Thursday to the south central CONUS by the weekend. Temperatures will be on the rise once again Friday and Saturday with highs back into the mid to upper 90s. Heat related headlines seem likely across parts of the county warning area once again. Models do try to move a weak cold front through the region sometime Sunday into Sunday night which will knock temperatures down but only by a few degrees. Rain is not expected to be widespread with the upper ridge continuing to build over the area but some areas could possibly squeeze out upwards of a quarter of an inch of rain. Period will end with the upper ridge building over the region with plenty of moisture streaming into the area with pronounced southerly flow. Temperatures will likely be approaching triple digits in some areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Expect VFR flight category for the entire forecast period of Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Sfc winds will be out of the south to southwest or otherwise light and variable across all terminals. Later Tuesday morning expect surface winds at terminals to become established out of the southwest with surface wind gusts anticipated at the northern terminal of KHRO in excess of 18 knots. Surface winds will begin to hamper down and become light and variable from later Tuesday evening until the end of the forecast period on Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 99 76 92 71 / 10 20 70 10 Camden AR 98 75 95 73 / 20 20 50 30 Harrison AR 95 71 89 68 / 10 20 70 0 Hot Springs AR 99 76 96 73 / 20 10 50 20 Little Rock AR 99 79 95 75 / 10 20 60 20 Monticello AR 99 78 94 74 / 10 20 60 40 Mount Ida AR 97 74 94 72 / 20 10 50 20 Mountain Home AR 97 72 89 69 / 10 20 70 0 Newport AR 99 77 94 72 / 0 20 70 20 Pine Bluff AR 99 78 94 73 / 10 20 60 30 Russellville AR 99 76 94 74 / 10 20 60 10 Searcy AR 99 76 94 72 / 10 20 70 20 Stuttgart AR 98 79 93 74 / 10 20 60 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017- 024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123- 130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313- 340-341. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-025-033-034-046-047-057-065-069. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...74