562
FXUS64 KLZK 161117
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
617 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of east, central and
  southern Arkansas on Wednesday

- Isolated showers & t`storms possible in northwest, west, &
  southern Arkansas on Wednesday

- Dry conditions build in late into the week through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Ridging pattern continues to keep day to day conditions very
similar. Near record highs and humid conditions will keep afternoon
heat index values above 100 across much of the state. Winds remain
weak and generally out of the south with an occasional gust. An
western wobble and intensification of the H500 ridge will shift
afternoon rain chances to northwest, west, and southern AR Weds.
CAMs have honed in on NW AR for the most widespread coverage
starting mid-afternoon. This should then slowly spread southward
across the state becoming more scattered as it goes. Within any
showers or storms an isolated strong wind gust and frequent
lightning will be possible. Rainfall totals will likely remain under
half an inch bringing no meaningful relief to drought conditions.
Any shower activity will begin to dissipate from north to south
after sunset.

Mid range model consensus has the H500 ridge continuing to intensify
over the region to near record heights over 600Dm over the mid-
south. Heat headlines will likely need to be extended with some
slight changes in the area possible closer to the weekend. Drier air
begins to move into the region late Thursday and likely shuts off
rain chances until late in the weekend. Any recovery of fuels and
soil moisture from any precip will quickly eroded as daily soil
moisture evaporation rates of near 0.25 in almost equal
expected rainfall totals from these showers and t`storms.

Some relief may be in site in the mid to long range models. They are
hinting at a more active pattern starting to work its way into the
region late in the weekend to next week as the ridge weakens and may
allow for a shortwave and attached cold front to introduce limited
rain chances across the area. Any relief would likely be short lived
as the ridge wants to build back in quickly next week.

Models continue to advertise cooler temps at the end of the period
that are replaced with a more realistic well above average temp
under the current pattern. This is likely in part due to model
climatology that is being skewed by normal temps dropping around 10
degrees by the end of the month. Any advertised heat relief should
be taken with a grain of salt until a discernible breakdown in the
ridging pattern occurs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Winds remain generally light and southerly with an occasional gust
through the period with widespread VFR conditions otherwise. Cloud
cover will increase with the heating of the day and eventually
lead to showers and t`storms starting in NW AR that`ll spread
across W and SSE AR. Outside of NW AR coverage will be widely
scattered. If any cell impacts any terminals expect gusty winds
and sub VFR CIGs, but coverage remains low enough to not prevail
at any site. Any lingering will dissipate after sunset from N to
S.


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    101  75 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         99  73  99  70 /  20  20   0   0
Harrison AR       96  73  96  72 /  30  30  10   0
Hot Springs AR    99  75  99  72 /  20  20   0   0
Little Rock   AR  99  76  99  74 /   0  20   0   0
Monticello AR     98  75  97  72 /   0  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      99  72  99  70 /  20  20   0   0
Mountain Home AR  97  73  98  72 /  20  20   0   0
Newport AR       100  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     98  73  97  71 /   0  20   0   0
Russellville AR  100  74 100  73 /  20  20   0   0
Searcy AR        101  73 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR     101  76 100  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-130-137-138-
140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...78