675
FXUS64 KLZK 301724
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Well above normal temperatures to persist across much of the
  state Wednesday and Thursday along with gusty southerly winds

- Widespread rain chances will slowly expand east across the state
  from Thursday into Friday, continuing into the weekend

- Highest rainfall amounts are expected across western Arkansas
  with amounts tapering off to the east

- Much cooler temperatures likely from Friday through early next
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Already seeing changes underway across the state as srly flow
returns, both T and Td values are several degrees higher than this
time yesterday. Will continue to see further moisture transport
into the region today with Td values expected to be in the 60s F
areawide by this evening. Highs today will be well above normal
again as the H500 ridge axis continues overhead, expect
temperatures to climb into the 90s F across much of the state this
afternoon. Srly winds will also be elevated with gusts above 20
mph expected at times, especially across western parts of
Arkansas.

After today, the main focus of the forecast continues to be a
slow moving H500 low over the SW US interacting with an anomalously
high moisture plume from the remnants of Polo. As the storm
system makes slow progress eastward it will encounter resistance
from ridging across the SE US.

As the mid-level low drifts east it will contribute toward a
multi-day heavy rainfall event that will impact portions of
Oklahoma, Texas and nearby areas. By later this week the H500 low
will lose intensity, open and be absorbed by northern stream
enhanced zonal flow.

For Arkansas and nearby areas this means rain is expected to
slowly move in from west to east from Thursday evening through
Saturday as a sfc cold front approaches. While previous model
runs indicated widespread heavy rainfall potential was expected
across the state, recent data continues to suggest a lower QPF
event for the Natural State. The main focus for more than 1-2
inches of rain remains across western Arkansas with precip amounts
tapering off and becoming less uniform toward the MS River.

While several inches of rain would go a long way toward improving
the state`s current high wildfire danger and drought conditions,
any rainfall is welcome at this point. Accompanying the rain
chances and in the wake of the cold front will be several days of
much cooler temperatures. Below normal temperatures may even be
seen for several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. With that
said, increased cloud are likely by the end of the period as a
disturbance begins to move into the region. Some gusty southerly
winds are possible this afternoon across terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  91  69  79 /   0  10  60  80
Camden AR         70  92  69  86 /   0   0  40  70
Harrison AR       71  84  66  75 /   0  50  80  80
Hot Springs AR    72  90  68  82 /   0  20  70  80
Little Rock   AR  73  92  71  83 /   0  10  40  80
Monticello AR     71  92  71  88 /   0   0  30  70
Mount Ida AR      70  88  66  81 /   0  40  70  80
Mountain Home AR  71  87  66  77 /   0  30  70  90
Newport AR        72  92  70  79 /   0   0  50  80
Pine Bluff AR     70  92  69  86 /   0   0  30  70
Russellville AR   71  88  68  80 /   0  30  70  90
Searcy AR         70  93  69  82 /   0  10  50  80
Stuttgart AR      72  93  72  85 /   0   0  40  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...73