854
FXUS64 KLZK 310628
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
128 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

- High temperatures will remain around seasonal normal high
  temperatures through Tuesday, then drop a couple of degrees
  below normal on Thursday, the hover around normal through next
  weekend.

- Northwest flow will persist with multiple disturbances/cold
  fronts bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the state
  through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Another quiet night across the Natural State with just a few patches
of mid and high level cloudiness with light and variable winds early
this morning. A few radar returns are noted over far western
Arkansas with a few sprinkles not out of the question, but most
locations will stay dry through sunrise. A weak shortwave embedded
within northwest flow will some chance POPs to the state on today
with the best chances being across western and northwestern
Arkansas.

By Monday, a front currently in the central Plains will dive
south within northwest flow and approaches the state sometime
during the morning hours. The cold front will bring chances
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over
western and northwestern Arkansas on Monday and an isolated shower
or thunderstorm elsewhere within the state. By Monday
afternoon/evening into Tuesday, the cold front will bring
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms statewide with
slightly cooler air filtering in behind the front by Tuesday
night.

The front will push south of the state with primarily dry
conditions expected on Wednesday before the next cold front
approaches the state by Wednesday night into early Thursday. The
cold front will dive southeast into the state on Thursday into
Friday bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms with another
shot of cooler air ushering in behind the front. High
temperatures across the northern two-thirds of Arkansas may
struggle to get into the lower 80s with only far southern and
southeastern Arkansas likely into the mid 80s on Thursday if
current forecast trends hold.

As we head into the next weekend, another disturbance embedded
within northwest flow will dive southeast bringing chances for
showers and thunderstorms mainly over parts of western Arkansas on
Saturday.




&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

An isolated shower or two remains possible through the early
morning hours mainly across parts of western and northwestern
Arkansas before sunrise. Latest hi-res CAMs shows the possibility
of additional isolated showers into central Arkansas by mid
morning, but confidence in this scenario remains low with no
confidence to place in TAFs at this time. Satellite this morning
shows some mid and high level cloudiness as a disturbance dives
southeast across the state. Additional mid and high level
cloudiness is expected later today with light and variable winds
and VFR conditions through the entire TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  61  87  62 /   0   0   0  20
Camden AR         89  64  89  63 /  10  10  10  10
Harrison AR       83  62  80  61 /  10  20  20  30
Hot Springs AR    88  66  86  65 /  10  10  10  20
Little Rock   AR  87  65  85  65 /   0   0  10  20
Monticello AR     91  65  90  66 /   0   0  10  10
Mount Ida AR      88  65  86  64 /  10  10  10  20
Mountain Home AR  87  61  82  60 /  10  10  10  20
Newport AR        89  62  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     89  64  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   89  66  86  65 /   0  10  10  20
Searcy AR         89  63  88  63 /   0   0   0  20
Stuttgart AR      89  64  88  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Kelly