975
FXUS64 KLZK 130736
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
236 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Most of the precip has moved east of the CWA early this Tue morning
as the closed upper low lifts slowly to the NE of AR. A clearing sky
and light/variable winds on the back side of this upper low has
allowed for temps to cool...and areas of fog to develop. Some areas
may see vis drop to below 1/4SM or lower at times. Have posted a
Dense Fog Adv as this may become more widespread.

By later this morning...fog will dissipate...with SRLY winds
increasing. POPs will become low for most areas with the upper low
exiting further to the NE. Temps will warm further than in previous
days...with highs in the 80s for most areas. Temps will increase
further for Wed as upper level ridging increases over the
region...and SRLY SFC flow increases further. Moisture levels will
increase over time...and with highs on Wed in the mid 80s to mid
90s...heat index values will warm into the 90s for many areas.
Similarly warm/humid conditions will be seen again for Thu...with
SRLY SFC flow increasing further. However...SW flow aloft will bring
in increasing clouds...so expect temps to be similar to Wed as a
result. POPs will remain low through Thu afternoon.

A new cold front will drop SE into the state for Thu night...before
stalling over NWRN portions of the state. POPs will increase for
portions of the CWA as a weak upper wave passes over this stalled
front. This front looks to lift back north on Fri...though an upper
wave will pass over the region...triggering additional convection Fri
afternoon/evening. Some of this convection could become
strong/SVR...but the overall potential for organized SVR Wx looks
uncertain at this time.

The SFC front looks to meander across the region...occasionally
dropping back south into portions of AR...then lifting back north
into MO as weak upper waves pass over the region. This will keep
POPs up through the weekend into early next week...with chances for
convection off and on for at least some portion of the CWA each day.
While a strong/SVR TSRA will be possible with this activity each
day...pinpointing the details regarding any organized SVR Wx look
difficult/uncertain at this time. This will depend on timing of
upper waves...and where the SFC frontal boundary will be any given
day. Just beyond the forecast...there may be better potential for
more organized SVR Wx as an upper shortwave exits the SRN
Rockies...lifting NE over the Plains. Where these features
ultimately traverse will dictate where any organized SVR Wx will
develop. However...this potential is at least a week away...and many
details will be more clear as this time gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

FG is expected to develop and become widespread across at least
the northern half of the state through daybreak. Vsby/cigs will
improve through 13/18z with widespread VFR conditions expected by
then. Winds will generally become Srly at less than 10 kts by late
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  64  86  70 /  10  10   0   0
Camden AR         87  65  94  69 /   0  10   0   0
Harrison AR       82  62  86  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    85  66  93  71 /   0  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  85  66  90  71 /   0  10   0   0
Monticello AR     87  68  92  70 /   0  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      86  66  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  81  62  85  67 /   0  10   0   0
Newport AR        82  66  85  71 /  10  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     85  66  91  70 /   0  10   0   0
Russellville AR   86  65  92  70 /   0  10   0   0
Searcy AR         84  64  88  69 /   0  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      84  68  89  71 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>046-052>055-062-066-067-103-112-
113-121>123-138-141-203-212-213-221>223-238-241-313-341.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...67