Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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996
FXUS64 KLZK 070018
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
618 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

To begin the period, calm and dry conditions are expected through
the period as surface high pressure takes control of the weather
pattern. Additionally, gusty northwest winds are expected to ease up
by later tonight.

The main story through the period will be the cold temperatures.
Highs are expected to be in the upper 20s to lower 40s across the
state Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. The overnight low
temperatures are expected to drop into the teens to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

Things appear on track this afternoon regarding the prospect of a
southern US winter storm impacting parts of Arkansas and surrounding
areas. Available 12z deterministic and ensemble data continues to
provide confidence in winter weather impacting the state from Thu-
Fri.

The H500 cutoff low near the Baja Peninsula will begin its ejection
northeastward on Thursday as an upstream shortwave dives south and
helps to dislodge it. As this feature tracks northeast across the
central/southern US, a sfc low will develop and progress eastward
along the Gulf Coast. With cold air in place across much of the
state and abundant moisture spreading northeastward, precip is
expected to move in from SW to NE.

While sufficiently cold air will be in place to accommodate snow
across the northern three fourths of the state, some questions
remain regarding precip type and accumulation across roughly the
southern quarter of the area. Forecast soundings indicate that FZRA
may be a dominant precip type across southern AR as precip moves
across the area. While there will be some additional cooling aloft
Thursday night into Friday morning as the sfc low shifts eastward,
which could allow for precip to changeover to IP or SN, there may be
a period of freezing rain across southern AR that could lead to
unwanted ice accrual.

Attempting to more clearly define what type of precip is expected
across southern Arkansas and how much of it occurs will be a
priority over the next 24-48 hours. Attempts at further refining
snowfall accumulations will be made as well.

Well below normal temperatures are expected across the state through
the period. If widespread snow is observed across the area,
temperatures could end up being more than a few degrees colder than
the forecast suggests.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

VFR conds should gradually become MVFR overnight as low-stratus
move back into the state. Clouds will increase from NE to SW.
Winds will be light overnight, then Nrly at 10 kts or less on
Tues. Conds should return to VFR around mid-day Tues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     20  36  19  35 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         22  41  24  40 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       16  32  16  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    21  38  22  38 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  23  38  24  38 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     24  40  24  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      19  40  21  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  16  33  16  31 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        22  35  21  33 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     23  38  23  38 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   21  39  21  38 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         21  37  20  36 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      24  36  24  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...70