Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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996 FXUS64 KLZK 070018 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 618 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 149 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025 To begin the period, calm and dry conditions are expected through the period as surface high pressure takes control of the weather pattern. Additionally, gusty northwest winds are expected to ease up by later tonight. The main story through the period will be the cold temperatures. Highs are expected to be in the upper 20s to lower 40s across the state Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. The overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the teens to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 149 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025 Things appear on track this afternoon regarding the prospect of a southern US winter storm impacting parts of Arkansas and surrounding areas. Available 12z deterministic and ensemble data continues to provide confidence in winter weather impacting the state from Thu- Fri. The H500 cutoff low near the Baja Peninsula will begin its ejection northeastward on Thursday as an upstream shortwave dives south and helps to dislodge it. As this feature tracks northeast across the central/southern US, a sfc low will develop and progress eastward along the Gulf Coast. With cold air in place across much of the state and abundant moisture spreading northeastward, precip is expected to move in from SW to NE. While sufficiently cold air will be in place to accommodate snow across the northern three fourths of the state, some questions remain regarding precip type and accumulation across roughly the southern quarter of the area. Forecast soundings indicate that FZRA may be a dominant precip type across southern AR as precip moves across the area. While there will be some additional cooling aloft Thursday night into Friday morning as the sfc low shifts eastward, which could allow for precip to changeover to IP or SN, there may be a period of freezing rain across southern AR that could lead to unwanted ice accrual. Attempting to more clearly define what type of precip is expected across southern Arkansas and how much of it occurs will be a priority over the next 24-48 hours. Attempts at further refining snowfall accumulations will be made as well. Well below normal temperatures are expected across the state through the period. If widespread snow is observed across the area, temperatures could end up being more than a few degrees colder than the forecast suggests. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025 VFR conds should gradually become MVFR overnight as low-stratus move back into the state. Clouds will increase from NE to SW. Winds will be light overnight, then Nrly at 10 kts or less on Tues. Conds should return to VFR around mid-day Tues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 20 36 19 35 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 22 41 24 40 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 16 32 16 30 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 21 38 22 38 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 23 38 24 38 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 24 40 24 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 19 40 21 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 16 33 16 31 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 22 35 21 33 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 23 38 23 38 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 21 39 21 38 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 21 37 20 36 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 24 36 24 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...70