978
FXUS64 KLZK 052031
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
231 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

An upper ridge over the Gulf continues to move east today with zonal
flow over much of the country. An upper trough is along the Canadian
border and will move into the northern Great Lakes Thursday. Zonal
flow continues over the area through Friday.

The warm front in southern Arkansas will move north tonight and
warmer air will spread from south to north. Patchy fog will and
isolated showers can be expected near the front. The front stalls in
southern Missouri tonight and then will move back into Arkansas
Thursday afternoon as a cold front. The front will be in southern
Arkansas Friday morning. Small rain chances will continue through
Friday. Low temperatures tonight will be warm and highs Thursday
will be in the mid 60s to near 80 degrees. Cooler temperatures are
expected Friday, especially north of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Well above normal temperatures are expected across the state on
Saturday as a warm front should be north of the area. Some record
high temperatures are possible by Saturday afternoon with some
locations possibly seeing highs in the 80s F. This taste of Spring
warmth will come to a crashing halt by Saturday night into Sunday as
a strong cold front makes quick progress across the state.

Sfc ridging to the north of the area will settle south and much of
Arkansas will find itself dealing with colder temperatures, but
nothing too unexpected for early to mid-February. Through the middle
of next week there will be a series of H500 disturbances and at
least one sfc cyclone that pass through the area. These features
will help provide occasional precip to the state and surrounding
areas.

The orientation of the H500 flow being out of the SW and with
cold air in place at the sfc, there is some concern for at least
some type of winter weather between Mon-Wed across AR. With sfc
ridging focused just to the north, persistent low level easterly
flow will be in place for next week. This doesn`t bode well for much
in the way of warming temperatures, especially with widespread cloud
cover.

Northern AR remains more favorable in terms of seeing winter weather
as the cold air will be more sufficient. Model solutions remain wide
ranging in terms of precip type and placement for next week. Given
the difficulty in resolving the placement of the sfc warm front
yesterday and today (and associated temperatures near this feature),
there is alot yet to be determined about next week`s possible precip
types and accumulation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

The warm front remains in southern Arkansas and will move north
this afternoon. Dense fog will continue near the front. Dense Fog
Advisory has been extended into mid afternoon. Cooler
temperatures are expected north of the front and warmer south of
the front. Low clouds or fog will continue through much of the
period. VFR to IFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     53  72  43  51 /  20  30  20  10
Camden AR         64  79  57  75 /  10   0  10  20
Harrison AR       56  67  42  51 /  10  20  10  20
Hot Springs AR    60  75  50  62 /  10  20  30  30
Little Rock   AR  60  76  49  58 /  10  20  30  30
Monticello AR     65  77  58  74 /   0  10  10  20
Mount Ida AR      60  77  52  64 /  10  10  20  30
Mountain Home AR  52  65  42  49 /  20  20  10  20
Newport AR        54  72  45  51 /  20  40  30  20
Pine Bluff AR     64  78  53  65 /  10  10  20  20
Russellville AR   56  76  47  56 /  10  20  20  30
Searcy AR         55  75  46  54 /  10  30  30  20
Stuttgart AR      62  76  51  60 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...51