305
FXUS64 KLZK 160839
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
339 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Monday with a few
  of the storms strong to possibly briefly severe.

- Biggest concern with any strong storm would be gusty winds and
  very heavy rain. Localized flash flooding remains possible with
  any storm that develops.

- Very warm and humid conditions return later in the week with
  heat index values in excess of 100 degrees likely in spots. Heat
  related headlines may need to be issued.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Overall the pattern remains unsettled in the short term with a
short wave trough axis located pretty much on top of the state
this morning. Generally light showers have been occurring for a
good part of the night but not nearly as widespread or intense as
what was seen Sunday afternoon and evening.

Expect an increase in convection as the day progresses with the
aforementioned trough axis moving east during the day. Air mass
remains very moist and with increasing instability, storms could
become briefly severe with winds the primary concern. A greater
concern than severe weather may be the amount of water these
storms could produce. PWATS remain high (near 1.75 and up to
nearly 2.25 inches) and could be efficient rain makers.

Parts of the state have seen excess amounts of rain lately and
additional heavy rain could lead to isolated or localized flooding
but no headlines are anticipated this morning. Convection should
dissipate in the evening with the loss of heating and the trough
axis reaching the Mississippi River by Tuesday morning.

Precipitation will be much more scattered in nature Tuesday and
diurnally driven for the most part. However, another upper level
impulse will be dropping into the central plains by Wednesday
morning. Parent low will head off to the east but will drag a
boundary through the state in the Wednesday night through
Thursday time frame for additional chances of more showers and
thunderstorms.

Boundary will come into play with a more organized threat of
strong to severe storms along and in advance of it as it plows
into an increasing moist and unstable environment. Once again
winds look to be the primary concern but the timing of the
boundary (late Wednesday evening to early Thursday morning)may
keep the overall threat down somewhat. The best chances of severe
weather will be over the northwest third of the state Wednesday
afternoon and evening as the front starts its push through the
state.

Once the front does clear out, it will be a return to very warm
and humid conditions as upper level ridging builds over the area.
While diurnally driven convection can never be ruled out in this
type of environment, will go generally dry Friday and through the
weekend with any POPS over mainly the east and southeast.

Today will be the "coolest" day of the week with temperatures only
in the 80s. As rain chances decrease, temperatures will increase
with widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday
through Thursday before widespread 90s return for Friday through
Sunday. If the current forecast holds, we may be looking at our
first heat related headlines of the season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Convection this evening has ended for the terminals but some light
showers will persist for several more hours. VFR conditions are
expected for the southern terminals while conditions across the
remainder of the terminals will deteriorate to MVFR and even IFR
at times. Cigs and vsby will gradually improve for all the TAF
sites with VFR conditions prevailing by the end of the period. A
few afternoon thunderstorms can not be ruled out for mainly the
northern terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  70  90  74 /  50  10  10   0
Camden AR         85  72  90  73 /  70  20  10   0
Harrison AR       82  68  88  72 /  20   0  10  10
Hot Springs AR    85  71  90  74 /  50  10  10   0
Little Rock   AR  85  73  90  75 /  50  10  10   0
Monticello AR     85  73  91  75 /  70  40  30   0
Mount Ida AR      86  71  90  74 /  40  10  10   0
Mountain Home AR  81  68  88  72 /  30  10  10  10
Newport AR        85  73  90  76 /  60  20  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     85  72  90  74 /  70  20  20   0
Russellville AR   85  71  90  75 /  30  10  10   0
Searcy AR         85  70  90  73 /  50  20  10   0
Stuttgart AR      85  74  89  76 /  70  20  20   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56