193
FXUS64 KLZK 221915
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
215 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

19z satellite and surface observations indicate scattered CU
across the state. Temperatures were near to slightly above normal.

Expect slightly higher low level moisture to be in place Sunday, as
indicated by forecast dew point temperatures.  Accordingly, forecast
heat index, wet bulb globe temperatures, and (experimental) heat
risk categories indicate fairly dangerous heat stress conditions
across the forecast area during the afternoon and early evening.
Appropriate headlines have been issued. Later forecasts will
evaluate for headlines concerning Monday`s potential heat stress
conditions.

Expect a weak boundary to approach northern sections of the
forecast area late tonight, and may promote widely scattered
convection across these areas on SUnday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Persistence condns wl cont to headline the long term fcst thru the
end of this week... Hazardous heat looks to remain in place acrs
much of the AR region and Srn Cntrl US.

Mean H500 ridging wl remain in place over the Cont Divide thru much
of the PD. The primary upper level high and asctd greater anomalous
H500 heights looks to stay displaced to the west of the FA,
remaining centered over the Desert S/W regions, however, regionally
hot and humid condns are expected to persist.

Mean upper W-N/Wrly flow wl reside acrs the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region, w/ meager upper flow persisting over the FA. At the
sfc, broad but weak sfc high pressure wl extend across most of
Appalachia towards the Ern coastline, and lee cyclonic sfc flow is
progged to persist over the Cntrl Plains. This pattern wl keep mean
Srly to S/Wrly sfc flow acrs the FA and the greater Srn Plains thru
most of the PD.

Confidence on fcst daily high temps, particularly among NBM guidance
is fairly high, w/ 80% confidence intervals of 5 degrees or less
thru the end of the week. That being said, daily high temps are set
to reach the mid to upper 90s daily, w/ some areas across Cntrl to
Srn AR approaching or reaching 100 degrees as well, particularly on
Tues aftn, and possibly again by Sat aftn.

Alongside hot aftn temps, sultry humidity levels wl keep maximum
aftn heat index values in excess of 105 to 110 degrees or more area-
wide, thru Wed aftn, w/ covg of heat advisory criteria diminishing
to Wrn and S/Wrn AR by Thurs and Fri aftn. In addition to hazardous
afternoon heat, overnight low temps wl keep heat hazard risks
elevated during the nighttime hours as well. Current fcst lows are
set to only fall to the upper 70s, to near 80 degrees in some
locations thru the end of the PD. This wl severely limit overnight
cooling potential, posing a non-stop heat risk.

Some daytime relief wl be noted on Wed and Thurs, as a prominent
H500 shortwave/vorticity max is progged to eject thru the mean W-
N/Wrly flow, and drive a round of widespread rain chances thru the
day Wed and into Thurs. Scattered to widespread precip should
provide slightly cooler aftn temps in the low 90s for at least a few
days, and incrsg daytime cloud cover as well.

By Fri, temps wl be on the rise again, as the upper closed high
shifts E/wrd, centering over the Srn Cntrl US, and stronger
perturbed upper flow acrs the Nrn US recedes towards the US/Canada
border. Greater synoptic subsidence via diff anti-cyclonic VA along
the inflection point of upper ridging/troughing over the Cntrl to
Nrn Plains should result in a strong sfc high developing. This sfc
high pressure is progged to move S/wrd towards the FA late in the PD
towards the end of next weekend. Some discrepancies still remain b/w
the the most recent 12Z suite of long range guidance, however this
looks to be the next best chance for rain and possibly cooler temps
locally.&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Scattered 4000-6000ft ceiling can be expected across the
southeast half of the forecast area through 23z. A light and
variable surface flow will prevail during the valid TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  96  75  98 /  10  20   0  10
Camden AR         74  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       75  93  73  97 /  10  20   0  10
Hot Springs AR    74  98  76  99 /   0  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  77  98  80 100 /   0  10  10  10
Monticello AR     75  98  78  98 /   0  10   0  20
Mount Ida AR      73  97  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  74  93  72  97 /  10  20   0  10
Newport AR        76  96  76  99 /  10  20  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     75  98  78  98 /   0  10   0  10
Russellville AR   75  97  77  99 /  10  10   0  10
Searcy AR         74  97  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      77  96  78  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ006>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-130-
137-138-141-230-237-238-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...55