279
FGUS63 KMSR 271232
ESGM19

MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM DUBUQUE..IOWA TO GREGORY LANDING..MISSOURI
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
731 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Mississippi River
DLDI4            16.0   17.0   20.5    10    7   <5    5   <5   <5
DBQI4            17.0   18.0   21.5    12    8    6    6   <5   <5
BLVI4            17.0   18.0   20.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FLTI2            16.0   18.0   20.0    11    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
CMMI4            17.0   18.5   20.5     7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
LECI4            11.0   12.0   13.5    10    8    6    5   <5   <5
RCKI2            15.0   16.0   18.0    15    8   10    8   <5   <5
ILNI2            15.0   16.0   18.0    14    8    9    7   <5   <5
MUSI4            16.0   18.0   20.0    15    8    9    7   <5   <5
NBOI2            15.0   16.5   18.5    19    9   10    8    5    7
KHBI2            14.0   15.5   17.0    20   12   11    8    8    7
GLDI2            10.0   12.0   14.0    20   11   10    9   <5    6
BRLI4            15.0   16.5   18.0    14   11   10   10    7    6
EOKI4            16.0   17.5   19.0     9    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
GGYM7            15.0   18.0   25.0    20   11    9   10   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508271231/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Mississippi River
DLDI4       7.2/    7.2/    7.2/    8.4/   12.0/   15.9/   16.9
DBQI4       9.6/    9.6/    9.6/   10.6/   13.8/   17.7/   18.7
BLVI4       8.1/    8.1/    8.2/    9.2/   12.6/   15.9/   16.8
FLTI2       7.9/    7.9/    8.0/    9.1/   12.9/   16.2/   17.6
CMMI4      10.5/   10.5/   10.5/   11.4/   13.8/   16.7/   18.1
LECI4       6.4/    6.4/    6.4/    6.9/    9.1/   10.9/   12.1
RCKI2       8.7/    8.7/    8.7/    9.6/   12.8/   16.1/   17.4
ILNI2       7.1/    7.1/    7.2/    8.2/   12.4/   15.6/   17.4
MUSI4       8.8/    8.9/    8.9/   10.0/   13.9/   17.4/   19.4
NBOI2       8.8/    8.8/    8.8/    9.8/   13.9/   16.6/   18.6
KHBI2       9.8/    9.8/    9.8/   10.7/   13.5/   16.3/   17.4
GLDI2       5.7/    5.7/    5.7/    6.3/    9.5/   12.7/   13.9
BRLI4      11.2/   11.2/   11.2/   11.8/   14.3/   17.0/   18.2
EOKI4       7.9/    7.9/    7.9/    8.2/   11.7/   14.8/   17.4
GGYM7      10.4/   10.4/   10.4/   10.4/   14.3/   17.2/   19.7
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508271231/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Mississippi River
DLDI4      50.9/   43.8/   34.4/   27.0/   24.2/   22.5/   21.1
DBQI4      50.9/   43.8/   34.4/   27.0/   24.2/   22.5/   21.1
BLVI4      51.6/   44.2/   35.0/   27.2/   24.5/   22.8/   21.4
FLTI2      53.3/   46.6/   36.7/   28.2/   25.6/   23.9/   22.3
CMMI4      53.3/   46.6/   36.7/   28.2/   25.6/   23.9/   22.3
LECI4      54.6/   48.2/   38.0/   29.0/   26.4/   24.6/   23.1
RCKI2      61.9/   53.9/   41.8/   33.2/   29.0/   26.8/   25.1
ILNI2      65.1/   55.5/   43.4/   34.2/   29.9/   27.6/   25.9
MUSI4      65.1/   55.5/   43.4/   34.2/   29.9/   27.6/   25.9
NBOI2      65.2/   55.7/   43.5/   34.3/   30.0/   27.6/   25.9
KHBI2      73.2/   61.0/   47.4/   38.7/   32.9/   30.9/   28.4
GLDI2      73.7/   61.1/   47.4/   38.8/   32.9/   30.9/   28.4
BRLI4      73.9/   61.3/   47.8/   39.0/   33.1/   31.0/   28.5
EOKI4      77.2/   62.5/   49.7/   36.5/   29.3/   26.5/   24.9
GGYM7      82.8/   66.4/   52.3/   38.7/   31.4/   28.7/   26.7
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$