684
FXUS64 KMAF 150550
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms develop each afternoon over western
  portions of the region through Sunday. Some storms may produce
  strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall leading to
  localized flash flooding.

- Temperatures remain above normal through the weekend and into
  next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over the
southeastern CONUS, deflecting warmer conditions away from West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  As such, highs this afternoon
should average only 7-9 F above climatology.  Upslope flow will work
in tandem w/instability and abundant moisture out west to produce
afternoon convection, mainly along and west of the Pecos.

Tonight, unfortunately, unseasonably warm minimums continue, mainly
due to a LLJ approaching 35 kts, and plenty of mid/high cloud.  Lows
should average ~ 6-8 F above normal.  Most convection should
diminish during the evening after peak heating concludes.

Saturday, thicknesses come down a bit as an upper trough moves west
through Chihuahua, grazing the Big Bend Area.  This may shave a
degree or so off of today`s highs.  Unfortunately, these troughs
aren`t known to be great rainmakers.  Instead, upslope flow will
once again result in an afternoon of convection, mainly along and
west of the Pecos.

Saturday night looks like a repeat of tonight, only maybe a degree
or so cooler to less cloud cover.  Convection should likewise
diminish during the evening.&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Sunday and Monday will be very similar to the last few days with
highs in the 90s to around 100F for most and isolated storms over
the higher terrain. Heading into the middle of the coming week, the
ridge that has been meandering across the US will flatten out over
the southeastern US and the Gulf. This will not change temperatures
much as highs will remain above normal in the upper 90s to low 100s
for most. It will dry the region out and push rain chances to below
5% each day. Continued southerly/southeasterly flow persists and
that may lead to a storm or two developing in the vicinity of any of
the mountainous zones in the area. Overnight lows in the 60s to 70s
can be expected each night through the extended.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Sunday and Monday will be very similar to the last few days with
highs in the 90s to around 100F for most and isolated storms over
the higher terrain. Heading into the middle of the coming week, the
ridge that has been meandering across the US will flatten out over
the southeastern US and the Gulf. This will not change temperatures
much as highs will remain above normal in the upper 90s to low 100s
for most. It will dry the region out and push rain chances to below
5% each day. Continued southerly/southeasterly flow persists and
that may lead to a storm or two developing in the vicinity of any of
the mountainous zones in the area. Overnight lows in the 60s to 70s
can be expected each night through the extended.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Southerly winds at terminals throughout the period. A low (15% to
30%) chance of showers/storms is forecast for this afternoon,
mainly for terminals on the Upper Trans Pecos and the SE NM
plains. Main risks with any storms are brief heavy rainfall,
lightning, hail, and strong, variable winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  74 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                100  73  98  73 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   99  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            97  73  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           91  68  89  68 /  30  10  10  10
Hobbs                    98  70  97  70 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                    90  62  89  62 /  20  10  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     98  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   98  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    100  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...94