964
FXUS64 KMAF 301839
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
139 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 132 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Generally hot and dry conditions are expected through Monday
  with only isolated to widely scattered showers and storms,
  mainly in and around the higher terrain and towards the Lower
  Trans-Pecos.

- Cooler and wetter weather returns Tuesday and remains through
  the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough slowly ejecting
northeast, and centered over southwest Wyoming, maintaining
southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  This
feature is forecast to nudge up to the Canadian border by early
Monday morning, leaving the synoptic pattern closer to home
relatively static.  Cloud cover is expected to diminish this
afternoon NW-SE, and will assist downslope warming from
southwesterly surface winds to add 3-4 F to yesterday`s
highs...which would be 4-5 F above climatology.  These surface winds
will mix the dryline east, leaving only a small window of
opportunity for isolated convection over the lower Trans Pecos.

CAMs diminish this convection shortly after sundown.  The LLJ
doesn`t look to be as strong as last night`s, and will combine with
clearing skies and lower dewpoints to yield overnight minimums that,
while still above normal, will be at least ~ 2-4 F cooler than this
morning`s, which felt like Houston on a dry day.

Sunday, boundary layer moisture will encroach further into the CWA,
the 50+ isodrosotherms all the way into Southeast New Mexico, and
the dryline diffuse/nonexistent.  Despite this, thicknesses will
continue increasing, resulting in possibly the warmest day this
forecast as highs plateau a good 6-8 F above normal, with even
triple digits in a couple of choice locations in the Pecos River
Valley.  A shortwave moving up through Sonora/Chihuahua will open up
a chance of convection from the Presidio Vally/Big Bend through the
Davis Mountains.

This activity should taper off to the northeast shortly after
sundown. Lows Sunday night should be similar to tonight`s, if not
a degree warmer due to increased cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Warm and relatively dry conditions persist Monday. Much like Sunday,
temperatures top out in the mid-to-upper 90s for most locations
(some low 100s in typical warm spots). Low rain chances (10-40%) are
confined mainly to the higher terrain west of the Pecos River.
However, the pattern changes once again beginning Tuesday. Upper-
level troughing develops out west and slowly moves towards west
Texas and southeast New Mexico next week. As a result, ridging
becomes displaced farther east and southwesterly flow aloft begins
developing over the region. Meanwhile, moisture also increases again
across the area (models indicate PWATs will be generally in the 1.0-
1.5 inch range). Because of this, rain chances begin to increase
mainly out west Tuesday afternoon/evening, shifting over the rest of
the area through the week. Some model disagreement still remains at
this time (for instance, the ECMWF ensemble has tended to be more
optimistic with rainfall totals than the GEFS, especially for
eastern parts of the area). Nevertheless, the overall pattern
supports increasing rain chances across the area next week. During
this time, we will be keeping a close eye on the flash flooding
potential, especially considering the very rich atmospheric moisture
that will be in place. Increased cloud cover will help keep
temperatures largely in the 80s, which is below normal for early
June. This cloud cover will also help limit instability, which
(combined with relatively weak deep-layer shear) will likewise
help limit the severe weather potential.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Gusty southwest winds
will decouple after sundown, then back to southeast Sunday.
Forecast soundings develop a high-based (~ 12 kft AGL) cu field
invof KFST this afternoon. Sunday, a 6-7 kft AGL cu field is
anticipated KMAF/KFST/KINK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  98  69  97 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                 61  99  66 100 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                   71  97  71  96 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            67  98  68  97 /  10  40  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           62  88  66  89 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                    61  97  64  96 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                    57  91  56  92 /   0  50  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     67  97  68  95 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                   68  97  68  95 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                     66  99  68  98 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99