057
FXUS64 KMAF 180314
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1014 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1010 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Highs remain above normal through the weekend, but a gradual
  cooling trend brings temperatures closer to normal early next
  week.

- Rain chances begin to increase out west on Friday, then becoming
  more widespread this weekend. Heavy rainfall leading to
  localized flash flooding and gusty winds will be the main
  threats with the strongest storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows the
upper-level ridge shifting westward from the southeastern CONUS
bringing dry and sinking air to the region. Highs are forecast to
range from upper 80s to mid 90s for most locations today and
tomorrow. The good news is troughing approaching from the west
weakens the upper ridge tomorrow, promoting ascent and moisture for
storm development across the western half of the region. The
greatest chances (20-40%) will extend from southeast New Mexico into
the Davis Mountains late afternoon through the evening. Forecast
soundings depict high PWATs (near to above 90th percentile),
abundant DCAPE, modest mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient deep-
layer shear indicating the threat of heavy rainfall, gusty winds,
and small hail associated with the strongest storms. Lows in the mid
60s to 70s are expected each night. The aforementioned trough
transitions closer to the region which looks to bring increased rain
chances for much of the region along with cooler temperatures by
early next week. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A weather pattern change is on the way beginning this weekend. Long-
range guidance is in agreement with upper-level troughing near the
region beginning on Saturday bringing abundant moisture and lift
yielding appreciable rain chances the region has not seen in a
while. The highest chances (50-70%) remain focused over portions
of southeast New Mexico and the western higher terrain, where the
most favorable moisture and lift are anticipated. Areas elsewhere
will generally have a low to medium (20-50%) chance of
showers/storms especially on Saturday night. PWATs exceeding the
90th climatological percentile suggests the threat of heavy
rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. This will be
something to monitor at least this weekend. Lowered heights
associated with the upper trough and increased cloud cover will
also cool temperatures gradually heading into next week. Model
guidance still suggests uncertainty when temperatures truly cool
down. Ensembles are starting to trend towards Tuesday, where
highs are forecast to be in the 80s to low 90s. However, these
cooler temperatures will depend on the position of the cold front
and trough.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.
Forecast soundings develop a cu field late morning/early afternoon
Friday everywhere but KHOB, w/bases ~ 4.5-7 kft AGL. Convection is
possible near the end of the forecast period invof KCNM, but
chances are too low for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  96  70  95 /   0  20  30  60
Dryden                   74  95  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  95  71  97 /   0   0   0  40
Guadalupe Pass           65  88  66  86 /   0  20  30  60
Hobbs                    69  93  69  93 /   0   0  20  50
Marfa                    60  90  61  90 /   0  20  10  60
Midland Intl Airport     73  95  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   73  95  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     73  96  73  97 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99