794
FXUS64 KMAF 271740
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Heat Advisories are in effect from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Monday to
  8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Tuesday for the Eddy and Reeves County
  Plains, eastern Culberson County, Loving and Ward Counties, and
  the Davis, Guadalupe, Chinati, and Delaware Mountains.

- Temperatures this week will climb into the triple digits most
  locations each afternoon. Additional Heat Advisories are
  likely, as the effects of heat are cumulative, and present an
  increasing risk of heat-related illnesses.

- Rain chances will be slim to none.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Persistence sets in today, with WV imagery showing the upper ridge
parked over northeastern New Mexico and the Panhandles.  Model
Certainty suggests today will be the warmest day this forecast, with
highs topping out 8-10 F above climatology.  Very warm temperatures
are expected in the upper Pecos River Valley, and Heat Advisories
are in effect as a result.  Latest NBM suggests the Davis,
Guadalupe, Chinati, and Delaware Mountains will meet criteria, so
we`ve issued advisories for them, as well.

Overnight minimums will remain unseasonably warm, ~ 6-8 F above
normal due to a recurring LLJ and a few high clouds to retard
radiational cooling.  Unfortunately, there`s no reason to expect
much variation in these warmer temperatures through the extended.

Tuesday, the upper ridge is forecast to move very little from where
it is today, with highs likewise looking nearly identical to what`s
expected today.  That said, considering the unseasonably warm
temperatures expected tonight, and that heat effects effects are
cumulative, we see no reason not to extend today`s advisories
through Tuesday evening.

Unfortunately, short term grids remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

About the only thing to look forward to in the long term is that the
LREF and global models are all in agreement in slowly meandering the
upper ridge west through the weekend, to the vicinity of the Four
Corners.  This will decrease thicknesses a little, offering some
relief from highs the next couple of days as we approach KMAF`s
climatological peak of temperatures for the year.  Additional Heat
Advisories may be warranted after Tuesday.  Toward the weekend, the
ridge may be far enough west that isolated convection may creep back
into the mix, mainly Southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of
West Texas. But chances will be minimal at best.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions and light southeasterly winds continue this TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                105  76 105  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  102  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           102  75 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           97  72  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                   103  72 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    98  66  99  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport    101  75 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                  101  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    104  75 103  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Tuesday for Chinati
     Mountains-Davis Mountains-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Reeves County Plains-Ward.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT Tuesday for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10