071
FXUS64 KMAF 061035
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

- Cooler temperatures and increasing chances of rain are expected
  through the weekend, with the greatest chances (20-60 percent)
  anticipated tonight into Sunday.

- Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are forecast during the
  early to middle part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

WV imagery this morning shows a very amplified ridge extending from
Mexico up through the Rockies into British Columbia, buttressed to
the west  by a trough making landfall on the west coast near the Bay
Area, and a rather broad trough over eastern Canada/northeast CONUS.
To the southwest, remnants of Lorena persist over the Gulf of
California, blanketing West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with
plenty of mid/high level moisture.  The 00Z KMAF RAOB came in
saturated from 600 mb upwards, and this top-down saturation will
continue tonight and today.  PWAT came in at 1.24", right at the
75th percentile.  This is forecast to increase to over 1.5" later by
18Z this afternoon, just above the 95th percentile, and close to 2
std devs above climatology.

Surface obs and mesoanalysis show the cold front just northeast of
KMAF.  This feature is forecast to make it to the Pecos by around
15Z today...about 3 hours slower than yesterday.  Nevertheless, CAA
today, in conjunction w/overcast skies and evaporative cooling from
any rainfall, will result in the coolest day this forecast.  Highs
will struggle to reach ~ 7-9 F below normal, w/the northeast Permian
Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains remaining in the 70s.  Latest model
guidance suggests today will be the best chance for rain, mainly
along the front this afternoon in the warmer temperatures better
instability south.  However, QPF remains paltry, so not much drought
relief is anticipated.

Tonight, the upper ridge begins redeveloping over the Gulf of
California, leaving northwest flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  A shortwave will move through flow aloft,
keeping at least isolated convection in play.  Despite overcast
skies, cool temperatures are on tap behind the front, with morning
lows down to 2-4 F above normal.

Sunday, the ridge continues to strengthen, increasing thicknesses and
starting a warming trend.  Despite this, highs should remain 2-4 F
below normal.  CAMs suggest at least minimal chances of convection
will linger in unsettled northwest flow aloft and along the residual
frontal boundary down south.

Again, QPF looks insignificant.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

By late Sunday and into the day on Monday, rain chances begin to
decrease with low chances(10-20%) hanging on across the Davis
Mountains and areas to the east. Rainfall amounts continue to also
be low with any spots that do get rain seeing less than a quarter
inch. Upper level ridging builds in across the region on Tuesday and
holds through the end of the week. Dry and warm conditions prevail
with highs each day reaching above normal into the low to mid 90s
for most. The higher terrain sitting in the upper 80s. Overnight
lows settle near normal in the 60s for many with upper 50s across
the mountains.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

MVFR cigs are anticipated for a few hours this morning behind a
cold front. Cigs should scatter out to VFR everywhere early
afternoon or before. Light winds will veer to southeast tonight.
Best convective chances will be invof KFST along the front this
afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77  64  83  66 /  20  20  30  10
Carlsbad                 80  65  88  66 /  40  20  20  10
Dryden                   87  70  86  69 /  50  50  50  10
Fort Stockton            82  66  86  66 /  50  30  40  10
Guadalupe Pass           74  62  80  63 /  40  20  20  10
Hobbs                    76  62  83  63 /  30  30  30  10
Marfa                    79  59  82  58 /  50  20  40  10
Midland Intl Airport     78  66  85  66 /  30  20  30  10
Odessa                   78  65  84  66 /  30  20  30  10
Wink                     81  65  86  66 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...99