223
FXUS64 KMAF 111830
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue across the region through
  this week and into the weekend. Some locations will be near or
  above 100 degrees.

- Isolated to scattered (10-40%) afternoon and evening
  showers/thunderstorms will develop over the Guadalupe and Davis
  Mountains, the Marfa/Stockton Plateaus, and portions of the Big
  Bend today and Wednesday. Dry weather conditions continue over
  the rest of the region.

- Showers and thunderstorms become more scattered in coverage over
  western portions of the region by mid to late week, especially
  near the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a broad mid-to-upper ridge extending from
the Four Corners region through the central/southern Plains and
southeastern CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface trough stretches from the
central High Plains to southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This
yields breezy conditions and very warm tempertures this afternoon.
Highs are forecast to range in the upper 90s to lower triple digits
for most, with the hottest tempertures confined mostly to the river
valleys. By Wednesday, the upper ridge builds eastward and many
spots see afternoon highs 2-3 degrees warmer than today`s. Moist
upslope flow brings chances (10-40%) of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the Davis Mountains, Marfa/Stockton
Plateau, and portions of the Big Bend this afternoon/evening and
again on Wednesday. Brief heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, small
hail, and gusty winds are anticipated to be the main hazards with
any storms that develop. Otherwise, sinking motion under the ridge
keeps the rest of the area dry.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward and become
centered over the Gulf Coast states late this week as a trough
develops over the western CONUS. Tempertures remain slightly above
normal as we remain on the western edge of the ridge. Highs in the
mid 90s to lower triple digits are expected Thursday and Friday.
Though triple digit temperatures become confined to portions of the
Trans Pecos and along the Big Bend on Friday. Afternoon/evening
shower and thunderstorm chances (20-60%) increase late this week
across the western higher terrain as shortwave impulses move
through southwest flow aloft. These chances expand from southeast
New Mexico to the Rio Grande, with the best chances (50-70%) over
the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. Dry conditions are maintained
across the eastern half of our CWA due to its closer proximity to
the ridge. Locally heavy rainfall, frequent lighting, and gusty
winds will be the main hazards with the strongest of storms. Long-
range model guidance and cluster analysis shows the upper-level
ridge building back to the west this weekend. As such, the latest
forecast shows a decrease in storm chances and become mainly
confined to the higher terrain.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR continues at all terminals. Sustained winds between 10-15kts
with occasional gusts up to 20kts. Gusts decreasing after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 102  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 74 103  75 100 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                   76 102  77 101 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            75 101  75 100 /  10  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass           70  93  69  90 /  10  10  30  20
Hobbs                    72 102  72 100 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    65  93  65  92 /  20  20  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     75 101  76 100 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   75 101  76  99 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     75 103  76 101 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...93