107
FXUS64 KMAF 111805
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
105 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

- Medium (30% to 45%) chance of showers/storms westernmost higher
  terrain into SE NM plains this weekend into Monday. Medium to
  high probability of rainfall at least 0.50" to 0.75" over Marfa
  Plateau into Guadalupes will pose a risk of flash flooding where
  heavy rain occurs.

- Drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday, but remaining unseasonably
  humid. High temperatures trend up and low temperatures trend
  down into Thursday.

- Following unseasonably warm weather on Thursday, cooler high and
  low temperatures late week into the weekend, accompanied by
  westerly downsloping winds are forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over
Durango deep in Mexico, courtesy of a large trough over the PacNW,
and resulting in southwest flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico. Modest return flow is present at the
surface, and this will combine with mostly sunny skies to yield
afternoon highs 7-9 F above climatology, or a couple of degrees
warmer than yesterday. This will be perhaps the warmest day this
forecast. The KMAF 12Z RAOB came in with a PWAT of only 0.73",
which is right around normal. However, this is still forecast to
increase as tropical moisture from remnants of Priscilla and TS
Raymond is entrained in southwest flow and advected into the
region. The latest NAM increases PWAT at KMAF to a ridiculous
1.77" by 12Z Monday. This is unrealistic, as the climatological
maximum for then is only 1.45", but still a good indicator that
things are going to moisten up considerably over the next 48
hours. NAEFS ensembles are still increasing PWATs in Southeast New
Mexico and areas of West Texas to the south to over 4 std devs
above normal through Sunday night.

That said, CAMs develop convection over far west Texas this
afternoon, and bring it into our western zones tonight as the
upper trough pushes east. Scattered showers and a thunderstorm or
two will be possible, mainly from the Guadalupes south to
Candelaria. Increasing cloud cover and a redeveloping LLJ will act
in tandem to retard radiational cooling, keeping overnight
minimums 4-5 F warmer than last night`s.

Sunday, convective chances continue spreading east and south as
the trough ejects up into Canada, and another digs into the PacNW.
Again, best chances will remain over the higher terrain out west.
Flash flooding continues to be a concern, especially with radars
overshooting efficient warm rain processes due to the tropical
airmass. Cloud cover and evaporative cooling should shave a couple
of degrees off of today`s highs.

Sunday evening, rain chances peak, with numerous showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms likely from, and west of, Hobbs to
Candelaria, with lesser chances east. Overnight lows should be
similar to tonight`s, if not a degree or two cooler. Despite the
tropical nature of this evening, QPF looks paltry east of the
Pecos, and flash flood concerns will be confined mainly to the
west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Mid to upper ridging will continue to stay east of the area over
the MS Valley on Monday. This places the area in continued west-
southwest flow aloft, maintaining advection of moisture from the
Pacific and allowing for keeping PWATs at least 1.20 standard
deviations above average. At the surface, a cold front over the TX
Panhandle to the north and remnants of TC Priscilla merged with a
lee trough over SE NM plains to the west will provide lift and
moisture for development for a medium (25% to 40%) chance of
showers/storms from Marfa Plateau into westernmost higher terrain
and SE NM plains. Highest chances expected over peaks of Davis
Mountains, Guadalupes, and northern Lea County, where mesoscale-
terrain interactions and proximity to lift and moisture from
surface boundaries will be maximized. Southerly winds back to
southeasterly in southeasterly near surface flow in wake of
northward moving remnants of Priscilla over the AZ/CO. This keeps
dew point temperatures into the mid 50s to lower 60s F areawide,
as well as cloud cover in place limiting daytime heating. Highs
rise into the lower to mid 80s F, lower to mid 70s F higher
elevations in westernmost and northern Lea County where there will
be more cloud cover and rain chances, and upper 80s to mid 90s F
Rio Grande basins. Lows Monday night fall into the lower to mid
60s F, mid to upper 50s F higher elevations of Lower Trans Pecos
into Marfa Plateau and Guadalupes as well as northern Lea County
as skies clear from southeast to northwest in southeasterly near
surface flow in the wake of the remnants of Priscilla. Rain totals
have again trended down and retreated west in extent, with only a
few tenths of an inch forecast from northwest Permian Basin into
Upper Trans Pecos and Presidio Valley. However, there is still
medium to high probability of rainfall at least 0.50" to 0.75" for
southern and eastern foothills of Davis Mountains and Guadalupes
indicated, so we will continue to monitor for a flash flood risk
where heavy rain occurs. Tuesday, ridging builds over the southern
CONUS and flow aloft becomes more west-northwesterly. However,
dew point temperatures will be slow to decrease as near surface
winds remain southeasterly, leaving conditions feeling humid
despite clearer skies and warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s F,
mid to upper 70s F higher elevations, westernmost Eddy County and
northernmost Lea County, and lower to mid 90s F along Rio
Grande). Lows cooler than Monday night are still expected Tuesday
night as winds decrease in speed with stalling of the cold front
to the north and weakening of lee troughing to the west. Similar
conditions but a few degrees warmer during the day, a few degrees
cooler during the night are expected Wednesday.

Dew point temperatures finally begin dropping back below the mid
50s F by Thursday, as unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid
80s to lower 90s F, upper 70s to lower 80s F higher elevations,
and mid to upper 90s F Rio Grande basins return. This will be
accompanied by near surface winds shifting to westerly as zonal
flow aloft strengthens at the base of a short wave trough moving
over the northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains. This
strengthens the cold front and lee troughing that had weakened
midweek, allowing for colder air to move in from the north and
west and leading to perhaps the coldest low temperatures we have
seen so far this autumn. While still well above freezing, mid to
upper 40s F make an appearance over peaks of Davis Mountains and
northern SE NM plains, with mid to upper 50s F down into the Upper
Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and northern Brewster and Presidio
Counties, with lower to mid 60s F elsewhere. If high and low
temperatures Friday and Saturday are any indication, Thursday`s
unseasonable warmth will be short-lived, as highs in the mid 70s
to mid 80s F, upper 80s to mid 90s F Rio Grande basins Friday give
way to mid to upper 70s F from Marfa Plateau into SE NM plains
and northwest Permian Basin, lower to mid 80s F north of Rio
Grande basins, and upper 80s to lower 90s F along Rio Grande into
Terrell County Saturday. Lows likewise continue to fall below 60 F
to the north and northwest of Rio Grande basins into Terrell
County, and below 50 F usual cooler spots of westernmost and
northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin as well as
Marfa Plateau. Rain chances stay low as surface boundaries remain
weak behind the cold front and disturbances accompanied by lift
and moisture remain well to the north. We are monitoring potential
for gusty downsloping winds to develop late week into this
weekend as this downsloping zonal pattern with cooler temperatures
emerges.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Southeast return flow
will veer to southwest as an upper level storm system approaches.
Clouds will increase, as well. Convection will be possible all
terminals by the end of the forecast period, but chances are too
low/far out for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  89  66  86 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                 66  84  63  81 /  20  50  60  30
Dryden                   63  91  65  88 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            66  89  64  88 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass           61  71  57  72 /  40  70  70  40
Hobbs                    62  83  61  81 /  10  50  60  30
Marfa                    56  80  57  81 /  20  40  50  20
Midland Intl Airport     66  87  66  85 /   0  20  30  10
Odessa                   66  86  66  85 /   0  20  30  10
Wink                     66  86  64  84 /  10  40  50  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99