357
FXUS64 KMAF 011838
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
138 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- A cold front pushes into our area this evening/overnight,
  ushering in Fall-like temperatures and breezy winds. High gap
  winds are expected at Guadalupe Pass tonight through Friday
  morning.

- Low-to-medium rain chances linger for mainly the Trans-Pecos,
  portions of the Permian Basin, and in/around the higher terrain
  tonight behind the front and through the weekend (generally
  30-50%, up to 70% Friday). By next week, low rain chances
  (10-30%) are maintained for the higher terrain.

- Despite a gradual warming trend starting this weekend,
  temperatures stay near/below normal through at least early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A shortwave embedded within an upper level trough is currently
lifting northeastward across the Plains. The associated cold front
lies just east of our region, accompanied by a line of showers and
storms spanning northeast to southwest across Texas. This line is
progged to produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding as it
marches across the state. Meanwhile, rain chances largely come to an
end for our region behind the front this afternoon. Temperatures are
mostly forecast to top out in the 80s this afternoon (70s in/near
the higher terrain and SE NM). This evening, a surface high over the
Plains sends a second cold front down from the Panhandle, bringing
breezy to strong northerly winds. The strongest winds are expected
within the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains this evening into tomorrow
morning. Sustained winds could range from 40-50mph, with gusts up to
60mph, prompting a High Wind Warning. Winds shall taper down through
the late afternoon and evening hours.

Aside from winds, lift associated with the front will combine with
moisture to bring about increased rain chances. This evening, CAMs
show a potential for isolated showers/storms developing over SE NM
first, then isolated to scattered activity over the western Permian
Basin and SE NM down toward the Davis`s. Rain chances tonight range
from 10-40%, with the best odds remaining in the vicinity of the
higher terrain. Rain chances increase to 20-70% tomorrow. The best
(40-70%) odds will favor SE NM, the higher terrain, and adjacent
areas. Better rain chances begin to shift east and southeastward
tomorrow night, favoring the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. Given saturated soils from previous rainfall in some of these
locations, the potential for flash flooding will be something to
monitor in the event of heavy rainfall. Otherwise, temperatures
tomorrow are forecast to reach the upper 60s (SE NM and the higher
terrain), 70s almost everywhere else, and 80s along the Rio Grande.
With the exception of 60s in our southernmost counties, lows tomorrow
night cool into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Fall-like temperatures persist through the weekend as winds remain
northeasterly behind Thursday night/early Friday morning`s front.
Highs in the mid-to-upper 70s can be expected for most locations
Saturday, increasing to the upper 70s and low 80s by Sunday. Daily
rain chances also persist this weekend, mainly in the Trans-Pecos,
the eastern and southern half of the Permian Basin, and in/around
the higher terrain (chances will be generally in the 20-50% range).
Meanwhile, ridging starts to redevelop over western portions of the
CONUS, and winds at the surface gradually become southeasterly again
by early next week. Though the ridge will stay west of us, these
features nevertheless allow temperatures to continue to increase
throughout the Long Term period. By the middle part of the week,
highs in the low-to-mid 80s will have become more commonplace across
the area. For reference, these highs would be near/a couple of
degrees above normal by early October standards. Upslope flow and
disturbances in the flow aloft will continue to allow for low (10-
30%) rain chances, mainly in and around the higher terrain south and
west of the Pecos River through next week.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the period.
Winds will be breezy out of the north and northwest, becoming
northeasterly early tomorrow morning. Gusts may occasionally reach
up to 30 kts at most terminals this afternoon into tonight. Isolated
to scattered showers and an overall increase in cloud coverage
may drop ceilings to MVFR at most sites tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  74  58  75 /   0  20  40  30
Carlsbad                 59  69  56  74 /  40  60  10  10
Dryden                   65  81  62  76 /   0  20  50  50
Fort Stockton            60  75  57  72 /  10  50  40  50
Guadalupe Pass           53  61  51  65 /  30  50  20  10
Hobbs                    58  68  54  73 /  40  30  10  10
Marfa                    52  70  50  70 /  10  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     63  74  59  75 /  10  20  30  30
Odessa                   63  73  59  75 /  10  30  30  30
Wink                     61  75  58  76 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening to 1 PM
     CDT /noon MDT/ Friday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...95