712
FXUS64 KMAF 270851
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
351 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 348 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Monday. Isolated to scattered
  storms are expected across the eastern Permian Basin extending
  into the Big Bend this afternoon and early evening.

- Another storm system is forecast to impact the region by early
  to mid-week. Heavy rainfall is expected with this system, which
  will elevate the risk for flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Radar imagery as of 3 AM CDT show thunderstorms dissipating
across the eastern Permian Basin. Latest satellite imagery shows
upper-level ridging building into the region. As a result, drier
and continued warm conditions are in store today. Disturbances in
the flow aloft and broad surface troughing extending from SW OK
into W TX will provide isolated to scattered storm coverage for
areas across the eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Davis
Mountains, and Big Bend region during the afternoon and early
evening. Forecast soundings continue to depict inverted-V
profiles, sufficient to high DCAPE values (800-1500 J/kg), high
PWATs (75th to 90th climatological percentile), and sufficient
deep-layer shear signaling a heavy rainfall and gusty wind threat
associated with the strongest storms. The greatest potential for
a strong storm or two look to occur mainly across the Lower Trans
Pecos, Big Bend, and Davis Mountains during the afternoon. High
temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s for
most locations.

Tonight, lows are expected to be in the 60s to low 70s. The
aforementioned upper ridge begins to shift east as an upper-level
storm system translates across southern California. This system,
along with Tropical Storm Polo ushers mid to upper-level moisture
into the western half of the region heading into Monday. As a
result, rain chances increase Monday afternoon across far West
Texas. Rain chances increase Monday night lasting through at least
the middle of the week with remnants of Polo and the upper-level
storm system impacting the region. More details can be found in the
long-term discussion and the potential for more flash flooding.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A wet and cooler weather pattern takes shape beginning Monday night
lasting through at least the middle part of the work week. This is
thanks to remnants of Polo and an upper-level storm system moving
near the region. Long-range guidance has the remnants of Polo being
absorbed into the upper-level storm system. This will provide
abundant mid-level Pacific moisture while lee cyclogenesis draws in
Gulf moisture at the lower levels. Areawide rain chances are
expected by late Monday night lasting through Wednesday. Rain will
begin across the western portions of the forecast area Monday night
and shift eastward heading into Tuesday. Guidance has indicated
Tuesday will be the "rainiest" day with abundant moisture from
both features. Ensemble guidance also suggests PWATs reaching near
and even exceeding daily maximum climatological values throughout
Tuesday. Given these anomalous PWATs, heavy rainfall leading to
flash flooding is going to be the main concern. Long-range
ensemble and deterministic models are trending towards the highest
rainfall amounts remaining along and north of the Pecos River,
with the exception of locations in Culberson County. Uncertainty
still exists in exact amounts, timing, and impacts given any minor
shift in both storm systems will alter potential impacts. We will
continue to monitor trends closely.

Besides the rain, a cold front is forecast to move through the
region sometime on Wednesday/Wednesday night bringing cooler
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Drier conditions and
slightly cooler temperatures (mid 70s to low 80s) are expected
behind the front Thursday and Friday as surface high pressure builds
in from the north. Moisture wrapping around the surface low will
provide low chances (10-30%) of rainfall across the eastern half of
the area late week. Temperatures look to stay near normal for early
October standards being in the mid 70s to low 80s by next weekend.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light/variable flow,
although some models bring in a weak boundary from the northwest
Sunday afternoon. Chances of convection are slim, but a
fairly widespread, low-based cu field is anticipated by noon
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               96  70  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                 89  63  89  67 /   0   0  10  70
Dryden                   98  74  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            95  69  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           82  64  81  63 /   0   0  20  80
Hobbs                    90  64  90  68 /   0   0   0  50
Marfa                    86  61  86  63 /  30   0  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     94  70  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   94  70  94  73 /   0   0   0  20
Wink                     95  70  95  73 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99