036
FXUS64 KMAF 141102
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
602 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms develop each afternoon over
  western portions of the region through Sunday, with the best
  chances favored over the higher terrain. Some storms may produce
  strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall that may
  lead to localized flash flooding.

- Temperatures remain above normal through the weekend and into
  next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Current satellite imagery depicts the upper-level ridge of high
pressure centered over the Southeast US which will stay there for
today. Surface troughing extending from portions of eastern New
Mexico to southwest Texas persists, promoting additional isolated to
scattered storms this afternoon and evening across the Guadalupe,
Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, western Permian
Basin, and Big Bend region. The highest chances (40-50%) remain over
the Davis Mountains thanks to upslope flow and surface troughing
overhead. Weak disturbances rounding the periphery of the ridge will
supply more lift for thunderstorm development. Similar to previous
days, a couple of storms that develop will be capable of producing
strong to severe winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall that may lead
to localized flash flooding. The greatest concern for localized
flash flooding lies across the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau.
This is due to saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall combined
with the highest expected storm coverage. Other than the storms, hot
temperatures ranging from the upper 90s to low 100s are in store for
most locations.

The aforementioned upper ridge shifts slightly westward. As a result,
drier air from this feature keeps rain/storm chances mainly west of
the Pecos River Saturday afternoon/early evening. The surface trough
becomes less pronounced over the western half of the region which
may limit rain/storm coverage further. Strong winds, small hail, and
heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding will remain
the primary hazards for the strongest storms. Similar high
temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s are expected Saturday
afternoon as well.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A drier and similar hot weather pattern takes shape by Sunday as the
upper-level ridge retrogrades west near the region. Sunday looks to
be the last appreciable day of isolated to scattered storms mainly
for areas near/in the Davis Mountains and far West Texas. Ensemble
guidance is in good agreement with the ridge being centered over the
forecast area by Monday where sinking motion under this feature
hinders storm development. Cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
over the Davis Mountains early next week due to upslope flow, though
chances are very low (< 10%). High temperatures throughout the
period span in the mid to upper 90s for most locations. Spots along
the Rio Grande and Pecos River are forecast to be in the low 100s
each day (100-108F). By mid to late next week, guidance becomes
unclear where the upper ridge will be positioned. Some solutions
suggest the ridge gets pushed eastward thanks to an upper-level
storm system moving across the western CONUS, while other solutions
suggest the ridge remaining over the region. Under scenario one,
a similar pattern is expected to what has been observed over the
past few days. If scenario two plays out, the hot and dry weather
pattern continues. Details will become clearer as we get closer to
time.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Southerly winds at terminals throughout the TAF period. A low
(20% to 30%) chance of showers/storms develops at terminals across
the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM plains during the early part of
the afternoon, spreading to the Stockton Plateau and then
dissipating by late evening. Did not include PROB30s due to
uncertainty in coverage and exact timing of storms. Main impacts
at terminals from any storms will be brief heavy rainfall,
lightning, hail, and strong, variable winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  75 100  74 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                100  73  99  73 /  20  10  20  10
Dryden                  100  76  98  75 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            98  73  97  73 /  30  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  68  90  68 /  20  10  30  10
Hobbs                    99  71  98  71 /  20  20  10   0
Marfa                    91  62  90  62 /  50  20  40  20
Midland Intl Airport     99  75  97  74 /  10  20  10   0
Odessa                   99  75  97  74 /  20  20  10   0
Wink                    101  75  99  74 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94