706
FXUS64 KMAF 292320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Flash flooding due to heavy rainfall and runoff from already
  saturated soils remain a concern across the SE NM plains,
  Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Upper Trans Pecos, and
  western Permian Basin late this afternoon through tonight.

- Strong shear accompanying remnants of Hurricane Polo yields
  threat for localized damaging winds and a couple of brief spin-
  up tornadoes late this afternoon through tonight.

- A very brief period of high westerly winds will be possible in
  the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains Wednesday afternoon and
  evening. Strong northeasterly gap winds will also be possible
  through Guadalupe Pass Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Hurricane Polo made landfall a little east of Guaymas Mexico per
the 11 AM MT NHC Advisory. Water vapor imagery shows associated
moisture being drawn into Mexico and toward southeast Arizona and
southwestern New Mexico within the southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of an upper-level low over western Arizona this afternoon. The
upper low will track across Arizona through this evening and into
western New Mexico by early Wednesday morning. The associated deep
moisture and lift will spread into southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas late this afternoon and this evening. We expect
numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop and
advance into the Guadalupe Mountains, the southeast New Mexico
Plains, as well as down into the Upper Trans Pecos and Davis
Mountains region late this afternoon and this evening. This
activity should eventually spread into the western and northern
Permian Basin late this evening and into the overnight hours.
There is some potential for a dry slot to spread into the
central/southern Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, which may tend to
limit coverage somewhat over these locations late tonight.
However, given the copious amounts of deep moisture with record
precipitable water values between 1.75 and 2 inches, we will keep
POPs high across the forecast area going into the late evening and
overnight hours. The primary concern will be heavy rainfall
amounts of 1-2 inches with localized totals in excess of 3 inches
which may quickly fall within the shield of heavier showers/storms
tonight. The Flood Watch was expanded east to include the Upper
Trans Pecos and western Permian Basin through early Wednesday
morning. Visible satellite imagery is also showing a zone of
clearing skies over western and southwestern portions of the CWA
this afternoon. The atmosphere should continue to destabilize with
MLCAPE values ranging between 1000-1500 J/KG over these locations
this afternoon. Deep layer shear will also be increasing over
western portions of our CWA ahead of the advancing trough this
afternoon and evening. Latest RAP forecast shows 35-45 kt of 0-6
km shear spreading from the western mountains into the southeast
New Mexico plains by early this evening. The instability and shear
will support a low-end damaging wind threat with the convective
complex coming into our area late this afternoon/evening. A brief
spin up tornado or two also cannot be ruled out given backed/low-
level curvature to the flow with up to 100-200 m2/s2 in the 0-1 km
layer. Storms should gradually decrease in coverage or lift
east/northeast of the area generally by 3-4 AM CDT.

The upper-level low continues to track over New Mexico on
Wednesday before lifting toward the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles
by late Wednesday night. A series of shortwave impulses embedded
within the southwesterly flow aloft will translate across the
region Wednesday afternoon and evening, while a weak Pacific front
moves into the area and becomes oriented from the Permian Basin to
the Big Bend area by late Wednesday afternoon. Lift will be
enhanced from the eastern/southern Permian Basin and into the
Lower Trans Pecos region Wednesday afternoon and evening, where we
expect another round of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Some of these storms will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall with additional totals of 1-2 inches with
locally higher amounts. The Flood Watch was expanded east to
include the eastern Basin and down into Terrell County Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. A few storms may also become
severe again over these locations Wednesday afternoon/evening
with a damaging wind and perhaps low-end hail threat. Storms
generally look to end by late Wednesday evening. Highs generally
range in the upper 70s to mid 80s over western portions of our
area behind the front and in the upper 80s to mid 90s over eastern
and southern portions of the CWA ahead of it Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The upper-level trough slowly meanders over the forecast area on
Thursday before another upper low pinches over west and southwest
Texas Thursday into Friday. A cold front will move through our
region during the day Thursday. Moisture will become more limited
over our forecast area on Thursday behind the front, so convection
if any should be isolated and mainly confined to far eastern
parts of the forecast area ahead of the boundary. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms may develop on Friday, with the
better coverage confined to the higher terrain areas in the
vicinity of the upper low. Surface high pressure builds into the
central plains Friday and the resultant MSLP gradient may bring
breezy conditions to our region Friday. A brief period of high gap
winds will also be possible over the Guadalupe Mountains Thursday
night into Friday. Upper ridging builds back into the western U.S.
this weekend into early next week. Isolated to scattered showers/
storms should mainly remain confined over central and southern
parts of our forecast area along the stalled boundary this weekend
into early next week. Temperatures will become more seasonal
Friday through Monday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Iso to sct TS will be possible from issuance time through midnight
this evening with storms moving generally from west to east.
Visibility drops and gusty winds will accompany most convection.
Outside of storms, winds will be sustained between 15-20kts with
gusts around 25kts out of the southwest. Amendments will be
necessary based on radar trends and timing of storm impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  89  65  87 /  60  40  50  10
Carlsbad                 65  82  58  81 / 100   0   0   0
Dryden                   74  94  71  90 /  60  30  50  10
Fort Stockton            72  90  65  85 /  60  40  30   0
Guadalupe Pass           60  69  54  70 /  90   0   0   0
Hobbs                    66  82  57  81 /  90   0   0   0
Marfa                    62  81  56  78 /  80  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     72  87  64  86 /  70  30  30   0
Odessa                   72  87  65  85 /  70  30  20   0
Wink                     71  88  63  86 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Andrews-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Pecos-Reeves County Plains-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
     for Borden-Glasscock-Howard-Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell.

NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea-Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-
     Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...93