195
FXUS64 KMAF 161706
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms are in store this afternoon/evening
  over western portions of the region, while storm chances
  decrease on Monday. Some storms may produce strong winds,
  frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall leading to localized
  flash flooding.

- Above normal temperatures persist through next week. Some
  locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Current satellite imagery shows an upper-level low entering
southeastern Brewster County bringing light rain showers. Meanwhile,
a ridge of high pressure is centered over the Ark-La-Tex region. The
aforementioned low is expected to shift northwest throughout the
morning and afternoon. As a result, more isolated to scattered
showers/storms are in store this afternoon and early evening across
portions of the Big Bend, Davis, Guadalupe Mountains, and far West
Texas. Strong winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rainfall will continue to be the main hazards with the strongest
storms, thanks to inverted-V profiles and slightly higher mean
climatological Precipitable Water values (PWATs) via CAMs.
Slightly cooler temperatures are anticipated across the region as
the low brings thicknesses down from yesterday. Highs are forecast
to range from the mid to upper 90s for most locations, with the
exception of highs in the upper 80s across the higher terrain.

Tonight, the upper low transitions into portions of far West Texas,
supplying a very low chance (< 15%) of light rain showers. Lows are
expected to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s for most. Monday, the upper
ridge of high pressure becomes the main feature moving forward,
resulting in much drier weather and warmer temperatures. Isolated
storms (10-20%) stick around across areas in/near the higher terrain
and far West Texas as the low will continue to shift westward.
Warmer high temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s are on tap
areawide.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The forecast remains unchanged from the previous package. A hot and
dry weather pattern is in store for next week as an upper-level
ridge takes hold over the region. Ensemble guidance is in good
agreement with the ridge staying over the region through at least
next weekend. Similar high temperatures each day are forecast in the
mid 90s to low 100s for most locations. Spots along the river
valleys look to range from 105 to 110. Lows in the upper 60s to mid
70s can be expected each night. Cannot rule out an isolated storm or
two (< 10%) over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains each afternoon
due to upslope flow, though sinking motion under the ridge will
hinder convective initiation.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in modest return flow,
with a few high clouds. Forecast soundings develop a cu field late
Monday morning invof KMAF/KFST/KCNM, w/bases ~ 5-7 kft AGL.
Convective chances are too low any terminals for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73 101  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72  98  72 100 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                   75  99  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73  97  72  98 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  89  68  92 /  10  20   0   0
Hobbs                    70  97  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  90  61  92 /  20  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     73  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   74  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     74  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99