533
FXUS64 KMAF 181830
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Highs remain above normal through Monday, but trend cooler
  beginning Tuesday.

- A few showers and thunderstorms will develop over western
  portions of the area this afternoon and evening. We will monitor
  for localized flash flooding and gusty winds with the strongest
  storms.

- Shower and storm coverage gradually increases Saturday and
  Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Hi-res guidance continues to show isolated showers and storms
developing over the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains this afternoon
and evening and staying over southeast New Mexico. A few storms may
be strong with gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lightning. Localized
flash flooding will be monitored for with this activity. Evening
storms decay tonight after loss of daytime heating and dry
conditions hang on through Saturday morning. The ridge to the east
that has kept the region somewhat dry slides further east and allows
moisture to pool in from the west and southwest. With more favorable
upper level conditions and ample moisture, scattered showers and
storms look to develop across much of the CWA with the best chances
(40-60%) for the Davis Mountains, surrounding foothills and down
towards Big Bend. Isolated coverage of storms expected across the
Permian Basin. Highs top out in the mid to upper 90s similar to
today with lows for tonight and tomorrow night settling in the 60s
and 70s.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

By Sunday, the upper level ridge mentioned in the short term
forecast continues to push eastward and this shift will bring more
moisture to the eastern half of the CWA with better rain chances for
the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Monday sees drier
conditions for a majority of the region, but a cold front pushes in
from the north. Guidance continues to show the front just making to
the region during the day on Monday, but stalling out before pushing
further south than the Permian Basin. Monday night sees the front
push through and temperatures on Tuesday fall to near normal in the
80s for most. "Cooler" temperatures last through the end of the
week with Big Bend remaining the hottest with temperatures in the
90s.

Rain chances increase both with the front and as another batch of
moisture is pulled in from the west and southwest. Guidance
continues to show the focus of moisture over New Mexico with a
gradual decrease in favorable conditions from west to east across
the CWA. Medium to long range guidance hold 40-60% rain chances
across SE NM through the end of the week. Flooding will quickly
become a concern with potential rounds of convection expected
each day, should the forecast continue to hold.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR continues for all sites. TEMPO added to CNM as showers and
storms develop over nearby high terrain this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, southeast winds between 10-15kts persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  98  73  97 /   0   0  40  20
Carlsbad                 70  96  67  96 /  30  50  40  10
Dryden                   74  98  73  96 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Stockton            71  97  71  94 /   0  30  50  30
Guadalupe Pass           66  86  65  86 /  30  50  50  10
Hobbs                    69  94  67  94 /  10  40  50  10
Marfa                    61  90  61  88 /  10  50  70  50
Midland Intl Airport     73  96  73  95 /   0  10  50  20
Odessa                   73  96  73  95 /   0  10  50  10
Wink                     73  97  72  97 /   0  30  60  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93