626
FXUS64 KMAF 252133
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
433 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 430 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms bring heavy rainfall
  and a continued risk of flash flooding over the southwest
  mountains, the Van Horn Corridor, Guadalupe Mountains, and much
  of the southeast New Mexico Plains through this evening.

- Warmer and drier conditions return this weekend, with exception
  of our southern counties.

- Another storm system looks to bring the return of cooler
  temperatures and rain chances to our area mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

As per the 500mb RAP analysis, the center of an upper ridge hovers
near SE TX. Meanwhile, a broad upper trough overlays the western US.
WV imagery shows moisture continuing to stream aloft within
southwesterly flow, with drier air beginning to filter in. A
shortwave embedded in the larger trough lifts northeast today into
tonight, dampening the ridge and shifting it westward. As the
shortwave swings by, associated lift will aid in additional isolated
to scattered shower/ storm development this afternoon into the
overnight hours. Rain chances range from 10-60% in the western 2/3
of the region this afternoon. The best (30-60%) odds will be focused
near the higher terrain in west Texas (especially the Guadalupes)
and areas west of the Pecos River. Tonight, rain chances gradually
taper down. A Flash Flood Watch has been extended through this
evening over SE NM, Far West Texas, and the Guadalupe Mountains as
additional rounds of heavy rainfall are in the forecast. These areas
have already seen plentiful rainfall the last several days. As such,
soils in the watch area are saturated, suggesting any additional
rainfall will quickly result in flash flooding. Aside from heavy
rainfall, a few storms may produce gusty winds.

Saturday, upper ridging builds back over our region. Low to medium
(10-50%) rain chances favor our southern portions Saturday afternoon
(highest chances near the Davis`). Drier conditions return and highs
in the 90s start to spread westward. SE NM and the higher terrain in
west Texas are forecast to top out in the 80s tomorrow afternoon.
Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night are expected to cool to
the 60s/70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Upper ridging continues to build back over west Texas and SE NM
Sunday, ahead of another storm system. Highs Sunday and Monday look
to reach the 80s (western counties) to 90s. Monday, our next storm
system begins to approach our area. Lift along the edge of the
trough brings the return of rain chances to our western zones during
the afternoon, spreading eastward through the evening and overnight
hours. Long-range models suggest moisture from Hurricane Polo
becomes entrained into the upper trough as it swings over New Mexico
Tuesday. As the system and its associated cold front translates over
our region Tuesday into Wednesday, rain chances increase areawide.
Something to monitor next week is the potential for heavy rainfall
leading to flash flooding, especially if moisture from Polo combines
with the trough. There remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the
exact setup and specific impacts with this upcoming system.
Otherwise, lowering heights Tuesday result in highs ranging in the
80s to low 90s. A cold front brings widespread highs in the 80s,
with 70s in the higher terrain Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light/variable flow.
Best chances for convection overnight, as per the past few days,
will be Southeast New Mexico, but all terminals have a chance of
getting hit overnight. Skies should begin scattering out Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  92  70  95 /  20  10  20   0
Carlsbad                 64  89  64  90 /  40   0   0   0
Dryden                   73  94  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            70  92  70  93 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           62  81  63  82 /  30   0   0   0
Hobbs                    65  87  64  89 /  30   0   0   0
Marfa                    60  86  60  87 /  30  40  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     69  90  70  92 /  30  10  10   0
Odessa                   70  90  70  92 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                     70  93  69  95 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Chinati
     Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99