206
FXUS64 KMAF 150843
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
343 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 252 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

- Isolated to scattered storms will be possible over areas south
  of I-10 as well as portions of southeast New Mexico this
  afternoon and evening. A few storms may become strong to severe.

- Hot temperatures can be expected this weekend and especially
  into the early to middle part of next week. Many locations will
  reach near or above 100 degrees during this time, with a few
  locations along the Rio Grande potentially reaching up to
  108-113 degrees Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Weak upper level ridging is overhead and will remain in place
through the day. With the ridge in place, temperatures move a
couple degrees above temperatures from Saturday. Many spots reach
into the upper 90s to low 100s. Hi res guidance continues to show
convection developing over southeast New Mexico southward across
the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau this evening. Some storms
may become strong to severe with damaging winds being the main
hazard along with lightning. Convection decays Sunday evening and
with a continuing supply of low level moisture temperatures settle
into the 60s to low 70s. The ridge strengthens on Monday and
temperatures move into the low to mid 100s for many locations. The
warmth continues into the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The ridge mentioned in the short term holds on for Monday and
Tuesday with Tuesday being the hottest day of the year so far for
the CWA. Guidance continues to center the ridge over the
western half of the CWA where ensemble guidance keeps temperatures
well into Heat Advisory criteria. Temperatures in the Pecos River
Valley and down across the Big Bend reach between 107-113F. The
ridge begins to breakdown for Wednesday and Thursday and
temperatures gradually move back towards normal to end the week.
The pattern remains dry through much of the long term with rain
chances staying low(<10%).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Southeasterly winds continue between 10-15 kts sustained with
occasional gusts to between 20-25 kts. Low clouds look to move
in from the east between 10-12z, but looks to only make it across
the eastern Permian Basin and impact CIGs at MAF. Gusts return
during the afternoon today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  73 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                103  70 104  74 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   99  74 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           100  72 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           95  70  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    99  69 102  72 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    94  63  96  65 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     99  74 103  76 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   99  73 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    101  73 105  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93