005
FXUS64 KMAF 291035
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

- Rain chances increase substantially this weekend. Chances range
  from 50-80% for northern and central portions of the region,
  gradually shifting farther south through early next week.

- At least localized flash flooding associated with heavy rainfall
  is possible through the weekend.

- Temperatures near or below seasonal norms are expected by the
  end of the weekend through the rest of the extended period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A boundary is currently evident moving over the central Permian
Basin. It has allowed for a couple of showers and weak thunderstorms
to develop. Nevertheless, this isolated activity is expected to wane
in the next couple of hours. By this afternoon and evening, the
stalling front (which is expected to come to rest in the Permian
Basin) will begin to increase rain chances across the region.
Presently, rain chances range from 20-50%, with the highest chances
in Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin. Some models
(particularly the HRRR and the HREF) have hinted at perhaps greater
coverage than the NBM suggests this evening. That being the case,
rain chances may need to be revisited/increased in the next forecast
package. Temperatures today will heat back into the upper 90s and
low 100s across much of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
However, today looks to be the hottest day through the rest of the
forecast period.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning looks to feature the best
rain chances in the Permian Basin as the front continues to linger
over northern portions of our area. PWATs over the 90th percentile
are expected, which along with the stalled front implies the
potential for at least localized flash flooding to occur. Rain
chances anywhere from 50-80% are currently forecast. Temperatures
will only be a couple of degrees cooler than today`s, but the
presence of the front plus rain-cooled air will continue to decrease
temperatures into the long term period...

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Some uncertainty remains with rain chances on Sunday afternoon. As
of right now, higher rain chances (50-70%) persist over central and
northern portions of the area. That being said, Saturday`s activity
could force the stalled boundary further south, limiting instability
(and thus rain chances) over the Permian Basin while increasing rain
chances further south. Highs will trend cooler Sunday, with many
locations topping out in the 80s and low 90s. By Monday the highest
rain chances (30-60%) continue to trend further to the south towards
the Big Bend while temperatures remain near or below normal areawide
(which is anywhere from 90-92 degrees at MAF this time of year). By
the end of the holiday weekend, most locations have a 40-80% chance
of seeing anywhere from 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, while portions of the
northern Permian Basin have a 10-30% chance of receiving 1.5 inches.
Of course, locally higher amounts may also occur, depending on where
the heaviest showers/thunderstorms set up.

Rain chances decrease after Monday, but don`t go completely away as
we remain under northwest flow aloft (10-30% chances generally
persist across the region). Near-to-below-normal temperatures also
stick around through the extended. By the end of the week, the Euro
is hinting at another front that could drop temperatures a few
degrees more and increase rain chances yet again. Nevertheless, the
GFS has much higher temperatures returning along with drier
conditions. Naturally, we will keep a close eye on how this
evolves over the next few days...

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

VFR will prevail through the period. Light east winds behind a
cold front will veer to the southeast by afternoon. A few storms
are possible late this afternoon/evening with highest confidence
near KHOB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               95  72  93  68 /  20  20  60  70
Carlsbad                 97  71  94  68 /  30  40  50  70
Dryden                  101  75 100  74 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton            99  72  97  69 /  20  10  30  50
Guadalupe Pass           88  66  85  63 /  30  40  60  70
Hobbs                    94  67  91  64 /  30  40  60  70
Marfa                    90  62  89  62 /  30  20  50  40
Midland Intl Airport     97  73  95  69 /  30  30  50  70
Odessa                   97  72  95  69 /  30  30  50  70
Wink                     98  72  95  69 /  30  30  40  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29