486
FXUS64 KMAF 241813 CCA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Drier weather and mild temperatures are expected early this
  week.

- A strong cold front around midweek brings near to below average
  temperatures to the area by Thanksgiving.

- A gradual warming trend begins Thanksgiving through the
  remainder of the week ahead of another storm system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VIS/IR satellite imagery early this morning depicts strong to severe
storms over far eastern Stockton Plateau into southeasternmost
Permian Basin. These storms are moving east and will clear the
area later this morning, following passage of a Pacific cold front
and departure of an upper storm system providing lift, moisture,
and instability for these storms. As the Pacific cold front moves
through, winds will shift from southerly to westerly and become
breezy, especially over Guadalupes and Delawares into Marfa
Plateau. This wind shift will be accompanied by dew point
temperatures decreasing from the 40s F western higher terrain and
50s and 60s F farther east, to the 30s F western higher terrain
and 40s F farther east. With this push of dry air, skies will
clear from west to east today. CAA behind the Pacific cold front
will be offset by downsloping winds and ensuing adiabatic warming
to result in temperatures near or a few degrees warmer than
yesterday. Therefore, we expect 50s F higher elevations, mid 60s
to lower 70s F, and upper 70s to lower 80s F along Rio Grande into
Terrell County. Tonight, skies remain mostly clear and dew point
temperatures nearly everywhere fall into the 30s F, enhancing
overnight cooling and allowing lows to once again fall into the
30s F western higher terrain and surrounding foothills and basins,
northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin, and 40s F
elsewhere.

Tuesday sees continuous mostly clear skies and dew point
temperatures below 40 F, so similar high temperatures to Monday are
forecast. However, with troughing developing over the northern CONUS
and rapidly pushing a strong cold front from the northern
Intermountain West/Rockies into the Southern Great Plains, winds
shift from northwest to north/northeast by evening as dew point
temperatures fall even farther into the 20s F over western higher
terrain and northern Lea County into Permian Basin. Therefore, lows
Tuesday night will fall at least a few degrees cooler than Monday
night, approaching near to below freezing Davis Mountains and
surrounding foothills as well as northern Lea County into northwest
Permian Basin, mid to upper 30s F Culberson County, Upper Trans
Pecos, and rest of SE NM plains into central Permian Basin, and 40s
F elsewhere. A mix of milder and cooler weather is in store for the
rest of this week with little to no rain chances until next weekend.
Read the long term discussion for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

As mentioned above, upper-level troughing looks to reside
overhead Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon. The
associated surface low near the Great Lakes region will help send
a cold front down into our CWA Tuesday evening and into Wednesday
morning. Temperatures around sunrise on Wednesday hover near to
slightly below the freezing mark within most of our northern
counties, with upper 30s to mid 40s for almost everyone else.
Highs Wednesday top out in the mid to upper 50s over the Permian
Basin, southeast New Mexico, and much of the higher terrain, while
60s are forecast elsewhere. Thursday, upper-level ridging begins
to gradually build back in from the west, allowing temperatures
to warm up a touch. Highs on Thanksgiving Day are forecast to
range from the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Flow aloft becomes zonal to southwesterly within a long-wave trough
late in the week as another upper-level storm system begins to take
shape near the west coast. A warming trend continues Friday and
Saturday ahead of this system, with highs in the 70s slowly covering
more area. Lee troughing near the Panhandle looks to send another
cold front into our region Sunday. However, long-range models show
quite a bit of variance in exact arrival and impacts of this system.
Therefore, this will be something to keep an eye on over the next
several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Breezy westerly winds
are expected this afternoon with sustained winds of 10-20 kts and
occasional gusts up to 25-30 kts at most terminals. Winds begin
to decrease from west to east by 21Z. Winds become light and shift
westerly-northwesterly by late this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  40  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 71  38  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   81  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            74  44  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           59  39  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    68  37  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  30  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     72  42  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   71  42  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     72  38  71  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...11