620
FXUS64 KMAF 140432
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1132 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

- Rain chances taper off to the northwest through Tuesday
  afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be light.

- Temperatures will remain above normal into next week. A Pacific
  front Friday, and a cold front over the weekend, will cool
  temperatures slightly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Light to moderate rain showers have been prevalent through the
morning hours across areas near and north of the I-20 corridor. A
tenth to three tenths of an inch of rainfall have been observed for
a few locations. These showers are expected to continue and move
northeast through the early afternoon hours. This is all thanks to
remnant moisture from post tropical system Priscilla. Additional
shower and storms are expected late this afternoon mainly near the
higher terrain (Davis Mountains) and move northward across the Pecos
River into southeast New Mexico. These storms will remain below
severe limits with the primary threats being brief heavy rainfall
and lightning. Forecast soundings depict PWATs over the 90th
percentile signaling the potential for heavy rainfall, however,
flash flooding is not expected given drier moisture profiles in the
lower levels along with faster storm motions. Cloud cover over the
region will keep temperatures cooler than what has been observed for
the past couple of days. Highs are forecast to reach the mid 70s to
mid 80s across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico, while
locations along the Rio Grande and Presidio Valley reach the low to
upper 90s.

Low (20-40%) rain chances hang around this evening over far west
Texas and southeast New Mexico due to the remnant mid and low-level
moisture from the aforementioned system persisting. By Tuesday
morning, these rain chances significantly diminish as the main plume
of moisture lifts northeast into the OK/TX Panhandle and Central
Plains. An upper high pressure from the east begins to build into
west Texas during the afternoon, increasing subsidence for drier and
warmer weather. As a result, highs are anticipated to be a degree or
two warmer compared with today. Breezy winds are also expected
Tuesday afternoon into the evening.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Wednesday, the upper ridge is forecast to be centered just west of
the ArklaTex, buttressed by a large trough over Nevada.  This
eastward displacement of the ridge will keep the heat off West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico through the extended as decreased
thicknesses prevail.  Highs Wednesday afternoon are forecast to land
largely in the mid 80s, around 5-7 F above climatology.

The upper trough then ejects northeast, exiting the CONUS into
southeast Saskatchewan by Friday morning.  This will shunt the ridge
east, and drive a Pac front through the area Friday.  Long range
models sharpen up a weak dryline along the Pac front, but only
muster a slight chance of convection along this feature over the
Marfa Plateau Thursday evening.  This will need to be monitored
throughout the week, as it looks like the only opportunity for rain
in the extended.

The Pac front will bring cooler temperatures to the region, and will
be followed by a weak, dry cold front over the weekend.  Sunday
looks to be the coolest day this forecast, with highs topping out
only ~ 4-6 F above normal.

Fortunately, temperatures rebound Monday under increasingly
southwest flow aloft as the next trough begins digging into the
Rockies.  Highs Monday afternoon should plateau a good 11-13 F above
normal.

Lows will follow a similar trajectory as highs in the extended,
bottoming out Sunday morning in the 40s and 50s most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Light southeast winds
will become gusty after 18Z.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 63  85  61  83 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                   65  86  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            64  85  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           59  76  57  77 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                    61  82  57  82 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    56  82  52  80 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     64  85  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   64  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     65  85  62  86 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10