714
FXUS64 KMAF 030845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- A gradual warming trend begins today, and continues into next weekend.

- Rain chances taper off to the south today and tonight, and will
  be slim-to-none through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

WV imagery this morning shows an upper ridge centered over
Utah/Arizona, and another centered over the Gulf Coast states,
resulting in a shear zone over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
This, as well as a cold front, brrrrought the coolest temperatures
yet of the fall to the area yesterday, as well as some beneficial
wetting rains.  Over the next 24 hours, the western ridge is
forecast to begin building east, shunting the shear zone to the ENE
as well.  As the remnants of the cold front continue sagging south,
so too will convective chances, mainly -SHRA.  Skies should begin
scattering out NW-SE, signaling the beginning of a gradual warmup
which will continue beyond the extended forecast.  Therefore today,
like yesterday, will be the coolest day this forecast, although
today`s highs will be only ~ 5-7 F below climatology, which will
still mean highs in the 70s most locations.  Despite the dwindling
rain chances today, today will be the wettest day of the rest of the
forecast as well.

Tonight, showers keep tapering off to the south, and skies begin to
scatter out.  This, along w/the absence of a LLJ, will allow
overnight minimums to cool to an average of 5 F above normal,
putting most locations in the 50s.

Sunday, the western ridge builds east to the Four Corners, shoving
the shear zone into east Texas.  As a result, increasing thicknesses
as the ridge moves in will add around 5 F to today`s highs. Isolated
showers will be possible south of I-10.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The extended forecast remains rather pedestrian, as most of the
noteworthy changes are  into the short term.  By Monday
afternoon, the upper ridge is forecast to develop even farther east,
and this will result in a continuing increase in
thicknesses/temperatures into next weekend, when highs will top out
some ~ 7-9 F above normal.  Despite this, for those who prefer
cooler weather, highs will only be in the 80s most locations.  90s
are becoming more and more elusive by the day.  In mostly dry,
northwesterly flow aloft, rain chances in the extended look slim-to-
none.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

MVFR/IFR cigs will continue all terminals through around 18Z or
so, before light surface winds veer to east, scattering out skies
to VFR by 21Z. _SHRA is possible, but chances are diminishing, and too
low/random for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               78  59  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 75  56  79  59 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   77  62  79  62 /  40  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            74  57  78  58 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           67  53  69  56 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    74  55  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    71  51  71  52 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     77  60  80  60 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   77  61  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     77  60  82  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99