027
FXUS64 KMAF 160638
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
138 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 132 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- Rain chances continue to decrease through early next week. The
  best rain chances (20-40%) remain in the Davis Mountains. Some
  highly localized flash flooding remains possible.

- A warming and drying trend continues into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Rain chances continue to decrease through the Short Term period as
ridging starts to build back into the region. The best rain chances
(20-40%) continue to show up in the Davis Mountains, as well as the
Big Bend and Guadalupe Mountains (and surrounding areas) Wednesday
and Thursday. These rain chances will be due mainly to upslope flow.
While a pop-up shower or storm is still possible outside of the
influence of the higher terrain (due to mesoscale influences),
coverage would be so limited that mentionable rain chances were
largely excluded from the forecast at this time. Today also marks
the beginning of our warming trend. Highs top out in the mid-to-
upper 90s for many, though some locations (particularly the river
valleys) will top out near 100 degrees. Lows bottom out in the
low-to-mid 70s for most. Temperatures Thursday look similar to
those of today.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The Long Term looks a lot like the Short Term period. Mid-level
ridging continues to build in from the southeastern CONUS, and
temperatures continue to warm as this occurs. By the end of weekend
and into the beginning of next week, many locations will experience
highs at or just below the century mark (except the usual cool
spots, such as locations in the higher terrain). Lows will be
uncomfortably warm, with many places bottoming out in the mid-to-
upper 70s. Meanwhile, rain chances remain fairly low (10-30%) and
pretty much confined to the higher terrain as subsidence from the
ridge generally inhibits upward motion across the region.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR continues through the period. Winds continue to be
southeasterly and sustained around 10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               96  72  96  70 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                 97  73  95  72 /   0   0  20  30
Dryden                   96  74  96  72 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            98  74  96  71 /  10  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           90  69  87  68 /  10  10  30  30
Hobbs                    95  71  93  69 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    88  66  87  65 /  40  20  40  20
Midland Intl Airport     96  74  95  71 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   96  73  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     98  74  96  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...93