583
FXUS64 KMAF 031115
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
615 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will peak today, potentially
  tying a daily record high! Temperatures gradually decrease into
  next week.

- Isolated to scattered (10-40% chance) showers/storms are
  possible each day, mainly west of the Pecos.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Current 500mb RAP analysis shows a broad upper level ridge residing
over the eastern CONUS. Today, ridging builds back over our region,
pushing temperatures a couple of degrees warmer this afternoon
compared to Wednesday. Triple digit highs are progged to overspread
much of the Permian Basin, SE NM, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the Rio
Grande valley. A few locations within the Big Bend may reach up to
108 degrees this afternoon. Given a forecast high of 101 degrees
this afternoon at MAF, we could tie the daily high record set on
September 3, 2012! Highs Friday afternoon then taper down a degree
or two, but remain much above normal for early September. Lows
tonight fall to the 60s near the higher terrain, with low to mid
70s expected for most.

Upslope flow may yield isolated to scattered (10-40%) showers/storms
both today and tomorrow afternoons/evenings west of the Pecos River
and over portions of SE NM. The best (40%) chances will be focused
near the Davis Mountains and along the western fringes of our area.
Should any storms become strong, the primary hazards will include
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper level ridging builds back over the Great Plains this weekend.
However, the ridge will not be as potent as it once was. As a
result, highs Saturday remain largely in the 90s across the region,
with triple digit heat expected in portions of the NE Permian Basin,
the Upper Trans Pecos, SE NM, and the Rio Grande valley. As it
stands, Saturday looks to be our last day of widespread highs beyond
the century mark! Early next week, the core of the ridge begins to
gradually shift eastward, toward the SE CONUS. Decreasing thickness
aloft allows for slightly cooler temperatures through the middle of
the week. Each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday looks to feature
highs predominantly in the 90s. Those in and near the higher terrain
can expect highs in the 80s. Triple digit heat becomes restricted to
isolated areas along the Rio Grande next week. Overnight lows
within the extended forecast are progged to range in the 60s to
70s. By the end of the period, lows in the 60s start to become more
commonplace. The extended forecast remains dry for most of the
region, with the exception of the higher elevations and portions of
SE NM. In these areas, moisture along the western periphery of the
ridge combines with upslope flow to promote isolated to scattered
showers/storms most afternoons. The best rain chances will tend to
favor locations in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions and light southeast winds continue through the
TAF period. Isolated TS will develop after 18Z and could affect
CNM/HOB until shortly after 00Z when the activity dissipates.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              103  76 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                102  73 101  73 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                  102  77 102  75 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton           100  75 100  73 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           91  70  90  69 /  10  20  20  30
Hobbs                   100  73 100  72 /  10  10   0  10
Marfa                    92  64  91  63 /  20  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport    101  76 100  75 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                  100  77 100  75 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                    102  77 102  75 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...10