387
FXUS64 KMAF 040845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 3456

- A warming trend continues through at least Wednesday, after
  which temperatures will decrease slightly going into next
  weekend.

- Rain showers are possible in the lee of the mountains through
  Monday afternoon, but chances remain minimal. Chances for
  showers and thunderstorms increase again Wednesday through
  Friday as an upper-level disturbance develops over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 3456

For those who prefer cool, wetter weather, they`re still in luck in
the short term, as long as northeasterly surface flow persists.  WV
imagery this morning shows the western upper ridge still bisecting
Utah/Arizona, but developing east to the Four Corners.  This is
slowly nudging the upper trough/shear zone that has resided over
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico for the past week to the
northeast.  Meanwhile, at the surface, northeasterly surface flow
persists, and will yield at least one more day or two of cool
temperatures.  NBM has been running a little warm the past few days,
and Model Certainty suggests it may still be a degree or two warm
for the next couple of days, especially if abundant cloud cover
persists.  That said, today`s highs should remain around 5 F below
climatology, keeping most locations in the 70s, keeping today once
again the coolest day this forecast.  This northeasterly flow will
continue promoting minimal upslope convective chances, mainly in the
form of showers.

Tonight, a minimal chance of upslope showers persists.  Absent a
nocturnal LLJ, overnight minimums will remain cool, coming in ~ 6-8
F above normal, putting most locations in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

Monday, the western ridge is forecast to be squarely over the Four
Corners, with the upper trough/shear zone shoved into east Texas.
Despite increasing thicknesses, northeast surface flow will persist
into late afternoon, so temperatures will be similar to today`s,
only perhaps a degree warmer at best.  Upslope showers remain
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 3456

Monday night, surface winds finally veer back to return flow,
allowing more respectable temperatures to come into the picture.  A
gradual warming trend is forecast through at least midweek, when
highs top out ~ 5-7 F above normal.  At about this time, long-range
models begin developing an upper trough directly over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, decreasing thicknesses and lowering highs by
up to 3-4 F Thursday through Saturday.  Wednesday through Friday,
models develop convection over Chihuahua, bringing it across the
river and farther north each day.  Something to watch will be deep
easterly flow saturating GFS soundings at KMAF to 300 mb by 18Z
Friday, yielding PWATs of almost 1.5", or around the 99th percentile
according to climatology.  A boundary Friday afternoon to tap into
this would make for a nice weekend, and bears watching.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 3456

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours in generally light
northeasterly surface flow. Surface observations, satellite
imagery, and forecast soundings suggest plenty of low/mid clouds
for the next 24 hours, but these should remain VFR and keep any
lower cigs from developing. Showers are possible, but too low for
a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               79  61  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 77  59  77  57 /  20  10  10   0
Dryden                   77  64  78  62 /  20  30  20   0
Fort Stockton            77  61  77  60 /  10  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           67  57  68  57 /  10  20  10   0
Hobbs                    75  56  76  56 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                    69  53  72  52 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     77  61  79  61 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                   77  62  78  61 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                     80  61  80  61 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99