786
FXUS64 KMAF 111136
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
636 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 636 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Above normal temperatures will continue across the region
  through the week and into the weekend. Some locations will be
  near or above 100 degrees.

- Isolated to scattered (10-40%) afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms will develop over the Guadalupe and Davis
  Mountains, the Marfa and Stockton Plateaus, and portions of the
  Big Bend today and Wednesday. Dry weather conditions continue
  over the rest of the region.

- Showers and thunderstorms become more scattered in coverage over
  western portions of the region by mid to late week, especially
  near the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

A broad upper-level ridge continues to extend from the Four Corners
through the central and southern High Plains and Gulf Coast states
early this morning, while a surface trough was located from the
central Plains through central New Mexico and far west Texas. Mostly
clear skies, warm temperatures, and occasionally breezy
southeasterly to southerly winds remain in place across our forecast
area early this morning.  The upper-level ridge will slowly build
east and will remain the dominant weather feature over our region
through Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will trend a few degrees
higher today and Wednesday as compared to the past few days as the
upper ridge strengthens and builds eastward. Highs today and
Wednesday will be hot with highs reaching between 98-103 degrees
over the southeast New Mexico plains, the Trans Pecos and much of
the Permian Basin this afternoon. Highs in the mountains will reach
into the lower 90s while readings along the Rio Grande range between
102-108 degrees. Upslope flow and moisture convergence will aid in
the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
(10-40% coverage) over the Davis Mountains, Marfa and Stockton
Plateaus, and portions of the Big Bend again this afternoon and
evening and again on Wednesday. An isolated cell or two may also
develop in the vicinity of the Guadalupe Mountains. Brief heavy
rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds may accompany storms that
develop. Subsident conditions under the ridge will otherwise keep
conditions dry across the remainder of southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The upper-level ridge will continue to shift to our east and will
become centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast
states late this week as an upper trough takes shape along the
western CONUS. Temperatures will remain hot/above normal over our
forecast area Thursday and Friday as we remain along the western
periphery of the ridge, though temperatures may trend a few degrees
lower by Friday. Even so, highs will range in the mid 90s to around
100 degrees over much of the region, and up to 102-108 degrees along
the Rio Grande. The chance for afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms will increase over western portions of the forecast
area late this week as weak shortwave impulses move over this
portion of our region in the S-SW flow aloft between the ridge
centered to our east and the trough to our west. The latest forecast
maintains relatively good (30-60%) chances of convection over our
western zones, especially over the Davis Mountains and the
Marfa/Stockton Plateaus where storm chances will be highest. Other
isolated to scattered (20-30% chance) showers and storms may develop
over portions of the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe
Mountains, Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin both days.
Dry conditions are still anticipated over the rest of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos in closer proximity to the ridge late
this week. A few storms that develop will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong/gusty winds
late this week. The ridge will build back to the west and become
stronger over west Texas and southeast New Mexico this weekend into
early next week. Storm chances decrease and mainly become confined
to the higher terrain areas of the western CWA Saturday-Monday.
Above normal temperatures persist through the extended forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions will remain prevalent through the period. S/SE
winds will increase to 10-15 knots with a few higher gusts later
this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  75 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                103  74 103  75 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                  100  76 102  77 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton           100  75 101  75 /  10  10  30  20
Guadalupe Pass           93  70  93  69 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                   100  72 102  72 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    92  65  93  65 /  20  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     99  75 101  76 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   99  75 101  76 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                    101  75 103  76 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21