737
FXUS64 KMAF 271123
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Patchy fog possible early this morning mainly across portions of
  southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin due to recent rains
  and near-surface saturation.

- Drier weather expected today and Wednesday before additional
  chances of rain return by Thursday and Friday, especially across
  the eastern half of the area.

- Highs remain near or above normal through much of the week and
  into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Nighttime Microphysics show low clouds across southeast New Mexico
and the Permian Basin, extending south towards central portions of
Pecos and Brewster Counties this morning. Meanwhile, surface
observations show relatively light south/southeasterly winds with
dewpoint depressions generally less than three degrees. Given the
recent rains, light winds, and small dewpoint depressions, we will
be looking out for some patchy fog across portions of the
aforementioned areas early this morning.

Aside from isolated convection over/near the Davis Mountains this
afternoon due to upslope flow, warmer and drier conditions are
expected today and tomorrow as heights increase. This yields
slightly above normal temperatures, with afternoon highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s for most. Tonight`s lows tick up 1-3 degrees
from last night`s.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The pattern becomes active once again during the latter half of the
work week. By Thursday morning, an upper-level shortwave approaches
west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm chances
begin to increase Thursday morning across southernmost portions of
the area, spreading northward throughout the day and into Friday as
the system moves across the region. Chances during this timeframe
still generally range between 40-70% across the area (up to 80%).
Whereas this past weekend the highest chances tended to be across
the western half of the area, by Thursday and Friday the best
chances will be across the eastern half (ie from the Big Bend
northward into the Lower Trans-Pecos and much of the Permian Basin
of west Texas). PWATs will once again be between the 90-99th
percentile (pushing daily maximum values), so flash flooding is
going to be our main concern, especially for easternmost counties
where confidence in widespread showers and thunderstorms remains
highest.

By Friday evening/overnight, most of this activity pushes beyond our
area. Guidance continues to show most locations staying dry for
Halloween. Another approaching system may bring additional rain
chances to portions of the area by the end of the weekend/beginning
of next week, but chances are low overall at this time (10-30%).
Both the ECMWF and the GFS (and their ensembles) attempt to bring
yet another system towards the area by the early-to-middle part of
next week. This system looks like it would be drier, but it could
push a front our direction and yield cooler temperatures. Details as
to just how much cooler it could get remain uncertain this far in
advance, so stay tuned for updates! Otherwise, highs through the
weekend mainly top out in the mid-to-upper 70s, except on Friday
(highs stay in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s thanks to rain
chances and cloud cover).

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

IFR CIGs continue at CNM/HOB/PEQ, with brief periods of LIFR
possible. CIGs are expected to gradually improve and lift back up to
VFR around 16Z/17Z this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions
prevail at all other terminals throughout this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               79  61  81  61 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 78  56  82  57 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   79  61  80  62 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            81  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           70  55  73  57 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                    75  56  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    74  52  76  54 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     77  60  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   77  61  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     80  59  83  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55