089
FXUS64 KMAF 281643
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1143 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1141 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Hot and mostly dry conditions persist through at least the
  middle of next week.

- Low (10-20%) chance of isolated showers and storms are forecast
  near the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

An upper level ridge is currently centered near the AZ/NM border.
The ridge drifts toward our area through the day today and
eventually becomes centered near the Texas Panhandle and western OK
Saturday afternoon. Highs this afternoon are expected to be similar
to Thursday`s, reaching the upper 90s across most of the region.
Triple digit heat will be confined to a few isolated spots within
the northeastern Permian Basin and areas near/along the river
valleys, reaching up to 106 degrees within the Big Bend. Temperatures
cool to the upper 60s to mid 70s Friday night. With ridging building
Saturday, temperatures continue an upward trend. Most can expect
highs in the upper 90s again. However, triple digit heat looks to
expand in coverage to include more portions of the northeastern
Permian Basin and Eddy and Reeves counties. A passing disturbance
aloft may aid in the development of some isolated showers/storms
near the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon. Rain
chances in these areas are low (10-20%). Model soundings depict an
inverted "v" shape and DCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg,
suggesting the primary hazard with any storms that develop to be
strong winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The center of an upper level ridge shifts northeast of our region
through the Long Term period. By the end of the period, the ridge
axis is progged to reside near the Midwest and Great Lakes region,
leaving our area on its west side. With ridging being our dominant
weather maker, hot and mostly dry conditions remain in the forecast
through the period. Highs each afternoon will range in the 90s to
triple digits. Highs beyond the century mark will mainly stay in
the northeastern Permian Basin, Eddy County, the Upper Trans
Pecos, and along the Rio Grande river valley. Overnight lows will
cool to the 60s in and near the higher terrain, while 70s are
forecast generally everywhere else. Rain chances mainly look slim
to none through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow and
some high clouds. Forecast soundings develop widespread cu fields
this afternoon and Saturday, w/bases ~ 6-10 kft AGL. No convection
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 99  73 100  73 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                  100  74  99  74 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            97  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  69  91  69 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    96  70  98  70 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                    91  61  91  61 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     97  73  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99