865
FXUS64 KMAF 092309
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon across the higher
  terrain. Warm/dry conditions finish the work week.

- Cloudier and more humid late weekend into early next week.
  Ridging builds back midweek, but a more zonal pattern keeps air
  as dry as this week from returning.

- Highest rain chances remain over westernmost higher terrain of Culberson
  County and Eddy County late this weekend into early next week.
  Secondary batch of higher chances shift from Presidio Valley
  into SE NM plains and Upper Trans Pecos early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Current satellite imagery shows an upper high pressure system over
west Texas and southeast New Mexico. This feature will sit over the
region throughout the short-term period. As a result, most locations
remain dry and warmer than usual for this time of year. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur over the higher
terrain this afternoon and early evening thanks to southeasterly
upslope winds. The main threat for these storms will be lightning.
High temperatures reach the upper 70s to upper 80s this afternoon
with lows tonight reaching the mid 50s to 60s regionwide. Friday,
the aforementioned high pressure strengthens increasing subsidence
over the forecast area. Rain chances drop to near zero with high
temperatures rising a degree or two warmer compared to today. The
warm and dry weather pattern continues heading into the long-term
period.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Warm and dry to start the weekend, but return of cloudier and
more humid weather is in the forecast. Mid to upper ridging holds
for another day over the southern CONUS Saturday, with
south/southwest winds and associated large scale sinking motion
allowing highs to rise into the mid to upper 80s F, upper 70s to
lower 80s F higher elevations, and lower to mid 90s F Upper Trans
Pecos, northeast Permian Basin, and along Rio Grande.

While winds remain southerly and even shift more southwesterly
west of the Pecos River Saturday night, Pacific moisture streaming
in on west-southwest winds aloft ahead of the next upper storm
system will lead to increasing clouds from west to east, limiting
overnight cooling and causing lows to only drop into the 60s F,
apart from 50s F Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos and northern
Lea County. Lee troughing from the Front Range of the CO Rockies
develops south into W TX Sunday and Monday, with accompanying
mesoscale-terrain interactions from formation of low pressure lee
side of higher terrain increasing rain chances. Greatest rain
chances despite southeast upslope flow remain windward of the lee
troughing and cyclogenesis, where tropical moisture over AZ/NM -
from remnants of Priscilla merging with a storm system over the
Great Basin - interact with a cold front moving in from the north.
Dew point temperatures and cloud cover increase with sustained
west-southwest winds aloft advecting in more humid air from the
Pacific, although highs Sunday will rise a few degrees warmer than
Saturday north of the Rio Grande basins and into the mid to upper
90s F Rio Grande basins.

Highest (30% to 50%) rain chances remain over westernmost higher
terrain of Davis Mountains into Guadalupes and westernmost Eddy
County, with a secondary batch of higher chances shifting from
Presidio Valley Sunday into SE NM plains and Upper Trans Pecos
early next week. While still too early to predict chances, most
likely amounts, and timing, models continue to show at least a few
tenths of an inch rainfall, but amounts have increased to at
least 0.50" to 0.75" over westernmost higher terrain of Culberson
County and Eddy County, and ensembles depict PWATs at least 1.25
standard deviation above average for this time of year. Rainfall
in lower percentile ensembles has moved closer to amounts in
forecast models and there is now at least a medium to high
probability of amounts up to 0.75" over Guadalupes into
westernmost Eddy County, so there is increasing consistency of a
risk for heavy rainfall in this region late this weekend into
early next week. Lows Sunday night are a few degrees cooler than
Saturday night over far northwest parts of the forecast area, and
highs Monday and Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday
for most of the region north of the Rio Grande as rain chances
expand into the SE NM plains and Upper Trans Pecos and near
surface winds shift back to more easterly. Winds aloft shifting to
southerly with trajectories off N MX rather than the Pacific as
remnants of Priscilla move off to the north bring back drier
weather by Tuesday. As ridging builds back midweek over the
central CONUS, winds near the surface veer back to south/southwest
from easterly and dew point temperatures decrease as winds aloft
from the west-northwest advect in drier air. However, we are not
currently expecting air as dry as this past week to return, and
there are indications of a more zonal pattern, cooler
temperatures, and more chances of rain later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions and light southeast winds will continue the next 24
hours. ISOLD SHRA possible in the flying area of FST the next
couple of hours but not in the vicinity and thus not in the TAF.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 61  84  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   65  88  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            63  86  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           58  75  59  79 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    59  83  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    55  78  52  80 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     63  87  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   63  85  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     63  86  61  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...10