314
FXUS64 KMAF 172024
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
324 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 322 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- Summer-like heat expected through Monday. Highs along portions
  of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during
  this time frame.

- Hot, breezy, and very dry conditions will bring critical fire
  weather conditions to the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New
  Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin this afternoon and again
  Monday afternoon and evening.

- Rain and storm chances increase (40-80% chances) by the middle
  to latter part of the week. We will be monitoring a few strong
  to severe storms each day. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding
  concerns over locations east of the Pecos River Wednesday into
  Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Summer-like temperatures and strong south/southwest winds during the
daytime persist into the early week. VIS/IR satellite imagery
depicts scattered clouds across the eastern portions of the area
this afternoon. Lower clouds will largely remain to the east of the
forecast area, since the more humid air east of the dryline
(characterized by dew point temperatures above 60F throughout the
day) largely remains east of the forecast area. In the drier air
west of the dryline, strong south/southwest winds enhance critical
fire weather concerns over SE NM into Culberson County and northwest
Permian Basin today and tomorrow (see Fire Weather discussion).
Highs today rise into the 90s F, mid to upper 80s F higher
elevations, and 105F to 110F for the Big Bend. Hazardous heat will
be less widespread than yesterday due to slightly cooler
temperatures and lower dew point temperatures maintaining apparent
temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s F. There is again a stray
(<5%) chance of a shower/storm over northern and eastern parts of
the Permian Basin from late this evening into tomorrow morning, but
most places should remain dry as lows fall into the mid 60s to lower
70s F east of the dryline and mid 50s to lower 60s F west of the
dryline. Following a humid start to the morning with low stratus
over easternmost parts of the forecast area, the dryline will once
again surge east of the area and allow hot and dry weather to
prevail, with 90s F, triple digits for central and northeast parts
of the forecast area, and along the Rio Grande. Unlike today, highs
are expected to be a few degrees warmer due to stronger
west/southwest downsloping winds, so there is some risk of hazardous
heat mainly over the easternmost Permian Basin and Terrell County
where dew point temperatures will be higher closer to the dryline.
Lows tomorrow night will be similar to tonight, but low (15% to 20%)
PoPs develop over the eastern Permian Basin early Tuesday morning as
a disturbance ripples through southwest flow aloft and provides lift
and moisture for elevated convection. Shower/storm chances will
continue to increase throughout the day and this is merely a prelude
to a cooler and more unsettled weather pattern by the middle of next
week. Read the Long Term Discussion below for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A pattern shift finally takes place across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico going into the middle to late part of the
week. A cold front will be pushing through the Texas panhandle
early Tuesday morning and may make it as far south as the
southeast New Mexico Plains and Permian Basin by late Tuesday
morning before stalling over the Trans Pecos on Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures on Tuesday will depend on the positioning of the
front, but highs are currently forecast to trend cooler in the
upper 80s to lower 90s over portions of southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin Tuesday behind the front, while staying hot in
the upper 90s over the Trans Pecos and up to 101-108 degrees along
the Rio Grande. Moisture values will be improved east of this
boundary, with afternoon dewpoints in the 40s and 50s over the
Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos, while much drier air
resides over western portions of the forecast area. Shortwave
impulses in southwesterly flow aloft should translate over west
Texas Tuesday afternoon and evening, and may aid in the
development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
along and east of the boundary, including over much of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region where a few strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds
will be possible during the afternoon/evening hours.

A series of more significant shortwave impulses embedded within
southwesterly flow aloft will move across our forecast area
Wednesday into Thursday while the surface boundary remains
oriented over the forecast area both days. An easterly to
southeasterly surface flow pattern will also return both days,
allowing low level moisture to increase with dewpoints back into
the 50s and 60s. Medium range and ensemble guidance remain in good
agreement with bringing increasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with
the best coverage along and east of the Pecos River, including far
southeast New Mexico, the Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin.
Increasing deep layer moisture and associated precipitable water
values up to 1.25 to 1.5 inches will bring potential for locally
heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns east of the Pecos
River late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.
Weak shortwave ridging aloft may build over the area by Friday
bringing lower rain chances by Friday. There will still be enough
moisture and instability along the lingering boundary to maintain
low (20-40%) POPs on Friday. An upper-level trough or low may
pivot over the forecast area this weekend with sufficient moisture
remaining in place to keep a mention of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures trend back
to near to slightly below normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions forecast throughout TAF period, apart from low
confidence in MVFR CIGs in low stratus for terminals over the
easternmost Permian Basin 11Z-16Z Monday morning. South/southwest
winds 15 to 20 knots, gusting to 20 to 25 knots for terminals over
SE NM plains into Permian Basin expected this afternoon. Winds
continue to stay above 10 knots and back to southeast in a LLJ
over the eastern Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau 02Z-05Z
this evening, while winds elsewhere become lighter. Winds again
shift to southwesterly at terminals 14Z Monday morning into end
of the period and gust to 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Breezy and dry conditions can be expected through the remainder
of this afternoon again Monday afternoon with min RHs bottoming
out in the mid single digits. Poor RH recovery is expected again
tonight west of the Pecos River. This very dry airmass combined
with well above normal temperatures, southwesterly 20 foot winds
up to 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts, and ERCs in the 75th-90th
percentile will bring critical to near extreme fire weather
conditions over the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico
Plains, and northwestern Basin both this afternoon and again
Monday afternoon. We have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red
Flag Warning over these areas for Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  99  69  90 /  10  10  10  30
Carlsbad                 63  94  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   71 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  30
Fort Stockton            66 100  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           62  83  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    60  93  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    53  91  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     69  97  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   69  97  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     64  98  61  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ Monday for Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...94