826
FXUS64 KMAF 232233
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
533 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms bring heavy rainfall
  and an increased risk of flash flooding over the Van Horn
  Corridor, Guadalupe Mountains, and much of the southeast New
  Mexico Plains this afternoon through late Thursday night. The
  pattern may continue to support heavy rainfall and a risk of
  flooding over these locations through late this week.

- Temperatures will be closer to seasonable levels through the
  remainder of the week, gradually warming again this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

V imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge anchored in place
over the upper Texas Gulf Coast, while out west, an Omega block sits
off the baja coast.  Between both of these features is a conveyor
belt transferring rich subtropical moisture into the region, as well
as plenty of shortwave activity.  As such, wetter, cooler conditions
closer to fall than summer are expected in the short term.  With
diminished thicknesses and abundant cloud cover, today could very
well be the coolest day this forecast as highs level off within a
degree or so of climatology...very fitting, as fall has now
officially begun.  As for wetter conditions, ensembles increase
pwats in the conveyor belt over New Mexico to 2-3 std devs above
normal.  KMAF radar bias has flipped to 1.2, a testament to the
tropical nature of the AMS.  Unfortunately, this means abysmal radar
coverage, as radars will be overshooting warm rain processes that
accompany such airmasses, and we`ll be relying heavily on ground
truth.

Satellite, radar, and CAMs continue to suggest best chances for
precip over the short term will be Southeast New Mexico, where a FFA
is in effect, and extends south into most of Culberson County.  A
shortwave is visible in WV imagery moving up through Chihuahua into
the upper Presidio Valley, and will clock Southeast New Mexico later
this afternoon/evening, resulting in perhaps the best rain chances
this forecast. Abundant overcast and a 30 kt LLJ will keep
overnight minimums an average around 10 F above normal.

Thursday, conditions/temperatures look very similar to today,
w/coolest temperatures and best rain chances Southeast New Mexico.
CAMs/QPF suggest extending the current watch another 24 hours.
Depending on what transpires the next 18 hours, the FFA may need to
be expanded in area as well.

Thursday night, CAMs increase chances Southeast New Mexico as
another shortwave moves through southwest flow aloft. Temperatures
look about the same as tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Friday, a mid level ridge is progged to lie to our east, centered
near East Texas, while an upper trough is positioned over the
western US. Situated between these two features, southwesterly flow
aloft continues to bring moisture over our region. Disturbances will
also be embedded within the flow. At the surface, a trough looks to
be oriented NE-SW across the Texas Panhandle and SE NM, aiding to
draw in Gulf moisture. As a result, isolated to widespread showers
and storms continue Friday, with rain chances ranging between 10-80%
areawide. The best (50-80%) chances will favor the northern/
northwestern Permian Basin, SE NM, and the higher terrain in West
Texas Friday. Rain chances decrease with southeastern progression,
nearer the ridge core. We will still need to monitor for the
potential of flash flooding Friday, mainly in our western counties,
given there will have been several days of wetting rains by that
point. Shower/storm activity then tapers down overnight Friday as a
shortwave within the trough passes over the Rockies into the central
Plains. The shortwave dampens the ridge and flow aloft becomes zonal
by Saturday evening. Low to medium (10-50%) rain chances shift south
of the Pecos River Saturday afternoon, with the best chances
remaining in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains. Along with
decreasing rain chances, temperatures gradually increase over the
weekend. Highs Friday are forecast to reach the 80s at most
locations, then cool to the 60s and 70s overnight. Saturday`s highs
top out in the 80s within the western portions of our region, with
90s in our eastern portions.

Upper ridging builds back over our region Sunday into Monday, ahead
of another trough progged to approach the region Monday evening.
Rain chances decrease further over the higher terrain Sunday
afternoon and highs generally reach the 90s (80s in/near the higher
terrain). With the approach of our next storm system, rain chances
increase again Monday evening into Tuesday, again raising
concerns for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Of course, details
shall be ironed out over the coming days, so stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

SHRA will continue across western terminals for much of the
period. TS will affect KFST for the next couple of hours as well.
Could see brief periods of MVFR cigs, but should not be
widespread. South winds around 10 kts will continue outside of
any gusty, outflow winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  91  71  89 /  10  10  30  30
Carlsbad                 63  81  64  82 /  50  50  70  70
Dryden                   72  90  72  91 /  10   0  20  10
Fort Stockton            70  87  70  88 /  20  10  30  30
Guadalupe Pass           59  73  60  75 /  50  50  70  60
Hobbs                    66  81  65  81 /  50  40  60  80
Marfa                    58  80  59  80 /  30  30  50  50
Midland Intl Airport     70  88  70  86 /  10  10  40  40
Odessa                   71  87  71  86 /  20  10  40  40
Wink                     70  87  70  86 /  40  10  60  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for Chinati Mountains-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29