342
FXUS64 KMAF 081138
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Hot temperatures will continue this weekend and into much of
  next week.

- Isolated thunderstorms may develop over portions of the Permian
  Basin, Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend this
  afternoon. Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday, before isolated to
  scattered showers and storms develop over the region by mid to
  late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Convective outflow associated with thunderstorms over east-central
New Mexico has pushed into Eddy and Lea counties overnight and
produced brief gusty northerly winds up to 35-45 mph. Isolated
showers and storms briefly managed to develop over western and
northern Eddy County around midnight before dissipating. A strong
upper-level ridge otherwise remains centered over the Four Corners
early this morning and is expected to move little through the
weekend. Hot and mostly subsident conditions will continue over west
Texas and southeast New Mexico underneath the ridge axis through
Sunday afternoon. Models/CAMs do however indicate a subtle weakness
over the Permian Basin along the southeastern periphery of the upper
ridge this afternoon and there has been a consistent trend in recent
guidance of isolated convection developing by mid to late afternoon
over portions of the Permian Basin. We have included a very low POP
(10-15%) there this afternoon with mention of isolated showers and
thunderstorms, though any cells that develop are expected to be few
and far-between. Other isolated showers and storms may also develop
over portions of the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend
this afternoon. Afternoon highs will once again range in the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees over the majority of the area, except for
readings around 90 degrees in the mountains and up to 100-105
degrees along the Rio Grande. Isolated convection should diminish
during the early evening hours, with mostly clear skies and dry
conditions prevailing tonight. Lows will mostly range in the upper
60s to mid 70s. We will maintain a dry forecast across the region
on Sunday underneath the dominant ridge axis, though cannot rule
out very isolated cells over the vicinity of the Davis Mountains
Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday afternoon should be very similar to
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Upper-level ridging will strengthen with a slight build in heights
over west Texas 7and southeast New Mexico Monday and Tuesday. The
ridge will become more centered over Texas by Wednesday before this
feature becomes more oriented from the southern Plains to the Gulf
Coast states by the latter part of the week. The general take-away
is that temperatures will stay hot each day through the extended
forecast period, with daily highs forecast to reach up to 100-105
degrees over much of the forecast area Tuesday-Thursday. A few
locations along the Rio Grande may range between 105-110 degrees.
These hot temperatures will bring increased heat-related concerns,
so be sure to take frequent breaks and stay hydrated if spending
time outdoors during the hottest part of the day next week.
Increased moisture along the western periphery of the ridge will
bring potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the higher terrain areas of the western CWA Wednesday through
Friday. Isolated to scattered convection may also develop into
portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin by Friday
given weak impulses on the western side of the broad ridge axis.
POPs generally remain between 20-30% at best late next week,
except slightly higher coverage (30-50%) in the mountains.
Temperatures may trend slightly lower in the 90s to around 100
degrees for most by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the period with
southeasterly to southerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  73 100  73 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 99  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   98  73  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            96  72  97  73 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           91  68  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    98  70  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    91  62  91  63 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     97  73  97  74 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                   97  73  97  74 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                     98  73  99  73 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21