581
FXUS64 KMAF 271818
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
118 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 113 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

- Showers and storms chances remain low(10-30%) for tomorrow with
  these chances being best over the Davis Mountains and into the
  Big Bend.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase considerably (40-80%)
  over much of our region Friday through the Labor Day Weekend.
  There will be potential for heavy rainfall and an associated
  risk of flash flooding over portions of our area through the
  weekend.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery this afternoon
shows the upper ridge still more or less centered over south central
Texas, allowing afternoon temperatures to be a little cooler than
they otherwise would be.  Afternoon highs should be very similar to
yesterday, coming in only 1-3 F above normal.  Easterly upslope flow
and a shortwave riding through the north side of the ridge may kick
off scattered convection this afternoon/evening from the Davis
Mountains south, and isolated activity over most of the rest of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  However, the 12Z KMAF RAOB came in
with a PWAT of only 1.09", which is just over the median.  NAEFS
ensembles keep PWAT around 2.5 std devs below normal through
tonight, so QPF will be rather tepid.

Tonight, a 40 kt LLJ is forecast to develop, keeping mixing in play.
This is a little stronger than last night`s, and will combine with
increased cloud cover to add a couple of degrees to this morning`s
lows.

Thursday, the ridge develops west, centering over northern
Chihuahua, increasing thicknesses to yield the warmest day this
forecast, and possibly the rest of the year, as highs plateau ~ 6-8
F above normal.  PWATS begin increasing, approaching 2 std devs
above climatology through Thursday night.   Scattered afternoon
convection will once again expected in the Davis Mountains,
surrounded by isolated activity.

Thursday night, a cold front will intrude upon the area, making it
to the Pecos or so by 12Z.  This will keep isolated chances of
convection in play for the Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains.
Increased PWAT/cloud cover will keep overnight minimums an
uncomfortable ~ 7-9 F above climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show a strong
signal for increased rain chances beginning Friday and remaining
through the weekend and into early next week. The pattern shift
begins by Friday with the upper level ridge shifting west towards
Arizona and New Mexico allowing northwest flow to prevail over the
region. Weak shortwaves will pass along the periphery of the
ridge. Low level flow will be generally easterly and continue to
push low level moisture into the area. GUidance shows PWATs
ranging from 1.25" to around 1.7" which rank from the 75th to 99th
percentile for this time of year. This is quite the spread, but
confidence is increasing that ample moisture will be available for
scattered showers and storms to develop each day beginning this
weekend and carrying into Monday and Tuesday next week. For now,
the main threat with incoming rain will be localized flooding.
Severe weather is not currently expected, but a few storms may be
strong with gusty winds and will contain heavy rain and frequent
lightning.

In addition to the rain, cooler temperatures will be expected. As
the pattern shifts and easterly, upslope flow takes hold,
temperatures will cool to near normal on Saturday and end up well
below normal for Sunday through Tuesday. Highs will settle into the
mid 80s for most each of those afternoons with the Big Bend and
Presidio Valley remaining the hot spots outside of any rain cooled
air. Lows follow suit with most dipping into the 60s and the higher
elevations reaching into the upper 50s.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. A
widespread cu field is anticipated both this afternoon and by late
morning Wednesday. Best chances of convection will be invof KFST
this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  99  72  96 /  10  10  20  20
Carlsbad                 70  97  72  97 /  10  10  10  30
Dryden                   73  99  74 101 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            71  97  73  98 /  10  20   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           68  88  69  88 /  10  20  10  40
Hobbs                    68  96  68  93 /  10  10  10  30
Marfa                    60  88  63  89 /  20  30  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     72  98  74  96 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                   72  96  73  96 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                     72  98  73  98 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...99