230
FXUS64 KMAF 150521
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

- Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms will mainly become confined to the Davis
  Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend region today. A storm or
  two could become strong to severe.

- Hot temperatures can be expected this weekend and especially
  into the early to middle part of next week. Many locations will
  reach near or above 100 degrees during this time, with a few
  locations along the Rio Grande potentially reaching up to
  108-113 degrees Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A mid-level ridge continues to gradually strengthen and make its
way toward our region from the west, bumping up our temperatures
over the next several days. A shortwave impulse rounding the
periphery of the ridge combined with moist, upsloping surface
winds may trigger some shower/storm activity over portions of
southeastern New Mexico Sunday afternoon. Rain chances remain on
the low side, around 10- 20%. Otherwise, triple digit heat is on
tap Sunday afternoon for much of southeastern New Mexico, the
Upper Trans Pecos, portions of the Permian Basin, and areas near
and along the Rio Grande. The latter region is where we expect to
see our hottest conditions, as highs soar into the 105-110 degree
range. Elsewhere, highs top out in the upper 90s. Lows in the 70s
dominate most of the region tonight and Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

MAF is currently sitting at 97 degrees with a 64 dewpoint, a pretty
impressive temperature for how moist it still is in the boundary
layer. This gives more validity to the NBM forecast highs over the
next week continuing to climb well over the century mark. The
hottest days still appear to be Mon/Tue/Wed when an upper level
ridge gets flattened by a passing trough and downsloping westerly
winds bring in hot air from the Desert Southwest. The ridge
rebuilds late next week with the center of the high pressure
located over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Easterly winds on
the southern periphery of the high should advect in cooler air
from the gulf and possibly prevent a return of the century heat,
though temps should remain above normal. No rainfall is expected
in the extended forecast.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Southeasterly winds continue between 10-15 kts sustained with
occasional gusts to between 20-25 kts. Low clouds look to move
in from the east between 10-12z, but looks to only make it across
the eastern Permian Basin and impact CIGs at MAF. Gusts return
during the afternoon today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  72 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                103  70 105  74 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   99  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           100  70 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           96  71  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                   100  68 102  71 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    93  64  96  66 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport    100  73 103  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   99  72 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    101  71 104  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93