355
FXUS64 KMAF 231810
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
110 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Risk of isolated flash flooding, damaging winds, and hail for parts
  of the SE NM plains this weekend in rounds of showers/storms.

- Highest rain chances forecast Saturday night through Sunday
  morning and again Sunday and Monday. Amounts still uncertain.

- Cooler temperatures (60s and 70s F highs, 50s F lows) and drier
  weather moves in by Tuesday-Wednesday next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A cooling trend begins today following temperatures peaking
Thursday. Increased clouds keep temperatures closer to the mid 70s
to mid 80s F range areawide rather than solidly in the 80s F.
Southeast winds will persist, increasing to 15 mph to 25 mph with
higher gusts by 3 pm over the Stockton Plateau and Pecos River
valley. Mid to upper ridging over the MS Valley will slow down
development of an upper system over the Desert SW that has been
delivering heavy rain and severe weather risk to AZ/NM/CO. Rain
chances stay (25% to 35%) for far western Culberson County and
Eddy County Plains, with isolated shower/overage indicated in
high-res CAMs from 3 pm through midnight. Bulk of heavy rain and
severe risk remains to the west of the area, and high-res CAMS
depict most activity dissipating as it moves into the Guadalupe
Mountains and Eddy County Plains. However, favorable shear, cool
mid-level temperatures in the DGZ, and fast storm motion (up to 40
knots) mean we cannot rule out all severe hazards, including
large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two over Culberson
County into western Eddy County Plains if storms can hold
together. Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph persist overnight for the
Stockton Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos, even as winds diminish
overnight elsewhere, keeping lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s F.

Tomorrow, rain chances increase to 45% to 60% from the Marfa
Plateau through SE NM plains, but activity will continue in rounds
with isolated to scattered coverage: not everyone will see rain.
Energy from northeast propagating disturbances within southwest
flow aloft east of the disturbance over the Desert SW is apparent
in models Saturday morning, and again late Saturday afternoon
through Sunday night. Due to persistent mid to upper ridging over
the MS Valley, most of the lift and focusing of moisture from
these disturbances remains confined to the SE NM plains,
increasing risk of repeated rounds of heavy rain and flash
flooding mainly west of the Permian Basin, especially for
repeatedly saturated soils and poor drainage regions. Highs remain
within the 70s F for cloudier regions farther west, and rise to
the 80s F for warmer spots with more sun farther
east/south/southeast on Saturday. With southeasterly winds again
increasing 15 to 25 mph over parts of the lowlands late afternoon
and persisting overnight, lows only fall into the 60s F lowlands,
while higher elevations still fall into the 50s F. Severe risk
(damaging winds, hail) is again present in stronger storms
Saturday and Saturday night over the SE NM plains given adequate
wind shear for long lived storms and cooler mid-level temperatures
aloft. Consequently, the SPC Day 2 outlook has western parts of
the SE NM plains in a MRGL risk. However, rainfall remains the
primary concern. Severe risk persists through Sunday, although
heavy rain and hail will become the primary hazards. More on this
in the Long Term Discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Mid to upper ridging over the MS Valley begins to flatten Sunday.
This occurs as energy within southwest flow east of the
disturbance over the Desert SW continues to send waves of energy
providing lift and focusing of moisture over the SE NM plains,
extending into the northern Permian Basin. Rain chances remain
highest (45% to 60%) for these regions, but increase into the 35%
to 45% for adjacent foothills and plains south into the Marfa
Plateau and east into the Permian Basin. Continued strong winds
increasing with height providing shear for organization of long-
lived storms and mid-level temperatures staying cool mean
strongest storms Sunday pose a threat for large hail and damaging
winds once again. Hail will become the main severe threat as
outlined in the SPC Day 3 outlook, which has most of the SE NM
plains in a MRGL risk. Repeated rounds of heavy rain continue to
characterize the forecast, although coverage and timing are still
too uncertain to warrant any flood products at this time. Highs
maintain a downward trend, with 60s and 70s F for cooler spots
north of the Pecos River and over the higher elevations, and
remaining in the 70s to lower 80s F for the lowlands.

Following lows dropping into the 50s and 60s F once again Sunday
night, Monday features much the same story, but with lower (35% to
45%) rain chances, this time over much of the area. While the
upper disturbance will be progressing east/northeast as ridging
over the MS Valley continues to break down, bulk of best forcing
will miss the area, keeping the Permian Basin and points south and
southeast drier. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook has highest risk
of rainfall up to 1" to 2" farther north over NE NM and the TX
panhandle for the weekend through early next week, but this could
change. Rain chances stick around Monday night through Tuesday
before diminishing thereafter. Cooler temperatures (widespread 60s
and 70s F highs, 50s F lows) move in behind the mid to upper
disturbance and a weak cold front from Tuesday through the middle
of next week, keeping conditions seasonable for late October.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight in increasing return
flow. Saturday, models develop a MVFR stratus deck up the Pecos
Rvr Valley, impacting every terminal except perhaps KPEQ. This
will prevail through the end of the forecast period. Convection is
possible, mainly SE NM terminals, but chances are too low for a
mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  79  63  76 /   0   0   0  40
Carlsbad                 61  77  59  73 /  20  60  90  80
Dryden                   62  77  63  75 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Stockton            61  78  62  76 /   0   0  20  30
Guadalupe Pass           57  70  56  68 /  40  60 100  70
Hobbs                    58  73  58  68 /  10  30  80  90
Marfa                    55  75  55  72 /  10  20  60  30
Midland Intl Airport     61  76  63  73 /   0   0  10  40
Odessa                   62  76  63  73 /   0   0  20  50
Wink                     62  78  62  75 /   0  10  60  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99