973
FXUS64 KMAF 171120
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Isolated storms are expected across the higher terrain and far
  West Texas this afternoon/early evening. Gusty winds, frequent
  lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats
  with the strongest storms.

- Above normal temperatures persist throughout this week. Most
  locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Radar imagery as of 1:45 AM CDT shows some showers across the
Davis Mountains. These showers are associated with an upper low
positioned south of the Davis Mountains, as seen on satellite. The
low is expected to shift northwest into portions of far West
Texas this afternoon. As a result, isolated showers/storms
(10-30%) are in store again this afternoon and early evening
across the Davis, Guadalupe Mountains, and far West Texas. High-
resolution forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles and
abundant DCAPE ( > 1100 J/kg) highlighting a threat of gusty winds
with the strongest storms. Frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall will also be primary hazards. High temperatures are
forecast to range from the mid 90s to low 100s for most locations.
By Tuesday, the upper-level ridge becomes the dominant feature as
the low exits the region, resulting in dry conditions and
slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. This
pattern looks to continue heading into the long-term.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The forecast remains unchanged from the previous package. A hot and
dry weather pattern is in store throughout the week as an upper-
level ridge takes hold over the region. Ensemble guidance is in good
agreement with the ridge staying over the region through early next
week. Similar high temperatures each day are forecast in the upper
90s to low 100s for most locations. Spots along the river valleys
look to range from 105 to 110. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s can
be expected each night. Cannot rule out an isolated storm or two (<
10%) over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains each afternoon with
upslope flow, though sinking motion under the ridge will mostly
hinder convective initiation.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Southeast winds at terminals throughout the period, with
occasional gusts up to or above 20 knots this afternoon/evening. A
very low (10% to 15%) chance of isolated showers/storms for
terminals southwest of the Pecos River is again forecast this
afternoon through this evening. Main impacts from any storms will
be brief heavy rainfall, lightning, small hail, and strong and
variable winds. Winds shift to more southerly late evening through
tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  73 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 98  72  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                  100  73  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            97  72  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           88  68  91  68 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                    97  70  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    90  61  91  62 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     98  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   98  73  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94